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Locked: Battle Map Probability
1 year ago  ::  May 01, 2012 - 10:18AM #1
bajatmerc
Date Joined: Mar 3, 2010
Posts: 590
I am Baja and this thread is meant to define a method of estimating or determining the probability of a few harder to evaluate D&D statistics such as but not limited to:

Proning enemies
CA
Coup de Grace

For purposes of this thread, only standard encounters will be considered.
From the DMG, it will analyze the encounter templates:
BC - Battlefield Control
CT - Commander and Troops
DL - Double Line
WP - WolfPack

The Classes and Races will be limited to the Player's Handbook.
The characters will be limited to heroic for creation, but all books can be included.
Themes will not be included.
The battlemap total size will be limited to 50x50
Half the squares you can't interact with, a quarter are cover, and laying prone grants superior cover.
Party size will be exactly 5 members.
No two characters will have the same class.

Optional Rules of Thumb (this part could use some additions like dpr per party member, average round length per template):
mimimum of 50% accuracy
non-elites have less than 100-70hp at lv 10
Elites have 250-170Hp (cave bear L6 and dire bear L11)

The Binomial Distibution is useful for determining the number of successes per trial.
The calculation requires determining the probability of the success for a single trial.

The Poisson Distribution is useful for determining the number of occurrences over time.

Current Goal:
First we are starting with the probabability of proning against the BC template.

Determine the probability of a single success for the party to knock an enemy prone in the first round of combat against BC.
And model how likely continued proning will be.

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Proning

If it is just a power to prone, it would be ~50% likely, but if it is an encounter power then that is just for one time.

Early estimate of proning: three attempts per encounter with 50% accuracy

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CA

Party members can move to flank on the battlefield, and classes like the Rogue can attack from hiding for CA.

Early estimate of CA: One enemy always granting CA to flankers

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The defender can move to an enemy, and can mark enemies. Some powers can move the enemies to the defenders.

Early estimate of enemies adjacent to the defender: three from round 2 until the third to last round

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Coup de Grace

The wizard has sleep and the rogue has knockout.

Early estimate of coup de grace: 25% likely to happen once, one power attempted to yield helpless and another to perform coup de grace
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Concisely: I want a system where players don't have to pick between mechanics and roleplaying. I hope 5E fails asap so a better system can be made asap.
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1 year ago  ::  May 01, 2012 - 11:19AM #2
Mand12
Date Joined: Jun 17, 2010
Posts: 17,324
So...how did you come to get these numbers, exactly?  I mean, those sure are nice Wikipedia-level definitions of statistical distributions, but you have absolutely zero detail on how or even whether you used them.
D&D Next = D&D:  Quantum Edition
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1 year ago  ::  May 01, 2012 - 11:42AM #3
bajatmerc
Date Joined: Mar 3, 2010
Posts: 590

May 1, 2012 -- 11:19AM, Mand12 wrote:

So...how did you come to get these numbers, exactly?  I mean, those sure are nice Wikipedia-level definitions of statistical distributions, but you have absolutely zero detail on how or even whether you used them.

No lol, first we are starting by determining the probability of a single success for the party to knock an enemy prone in the first round of combat against BC.

All I did was the asymptotic early estimates. Their explanation is stated. If it takes two powers to perform coup de grace, then it's 25% if each power is 50% accurate.

I will probably use a photo to relay the math as typing it sucks.
example: imgur.com/Qw6Mb

Spoiler: Show
Concisely: I want a system where players don't have to pick between mechanics and roleplaying. I hope 5E fails asap so a better system can be made asap.
Spoiler: Show

Cancel
1 year ago  ::  May 01, 2012 - 11:43AM #4
Mand12
Date Joined: Jun 17, 2010
Posts: 17,324
...so?  You've just stated that hit chances apply to powers.
Moderated by ORC_Ragnar on May 01, 2012 - 12:22PM
D&D Next = D&D:  Quantum Edition
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1 year ago  ::  May 01, 2012 - 11:45AM #5
Fardiz
Date Joined: Dec 22, 2010
Posts: 2,291
There are for more variables than you can ever hope to encorporate (and some that you can't even give a numerical value to) and if you did try to take averages, it would be so far from real play as to be useless, if not harmful.
Moderated by ORC_Ragnar on May 01, 2012 - 12:22PM
Back to Basics - A Guide to Basic Attacks

You might be playing DnD wrong if...

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."
Albert Einstein
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1 year ago  ::  May 01, 2012 - 11:46AM #6
monkeygentleman
Date Joined: Feb 22, 2011
Posts: 1,391
I'm with the other guys, I really have no idea what you're trying to do here.

I mean... average encounters? You're trying to apply statistics to... DM imagination?
 Feb 16, 2012 -- 11:07PM, DuelistDelSol wrote:... congratulations, Monkeygentleman.You won the unwinnable. Feb 29, 2012 -- 9:40PM, Zathris wrote:monkeygentleman, you are the worst thing to happen to the CharOp forums since Mearls took over WotC.
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1 year ago  ::  May 01, 2012 - 11:56AM #7
bajatmerc
Date Joined: Mar 3, 2010
Posts: 590
A few people posted after I posted so it might have been looked over, but here is an example what the distribution will look like for a particular number of successes per encounter:
imgur.com/Qw6Mb
Spoiler: Show
Concisely: I want a system where players don't have to pick between mechanics and roleplaying. I hope 5E fails asap so a better system can be made asap.
Spoiler: Show

Cancel
1 year ago  ::  May 01, 2012 - 12:01PM #8
Mand12
Date Joined: Jun 17, 2010
Posts: 17,324
So?

You have no way of translating the expected number of 'prone' events in a combat into anything that's actually meaningful.
D&D Next = D&D:  Quantum Edition
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1 year ago  ::  May 01, 2012 - 12:02PM #9
bajatmerc
Date Joined: Mar 3, 2010
Posts: 590
why not?
Spoiler: Show
Concisely: I want a system where players don't have to pick between mechanics and roleplaying. I hope 5E fails asap so a better system can be made asap.
Spoiler: Show

Cancel
1 year ago  ::  May 01, 2012 - 12:03PM #10
Matyr
Date Joined: Jun 19, 2004
Posts: 2,726

May 1, 2012 -- 11:56AM, bajatmerc wrote:

A few people posted after I posted so it might have been looked over, but here is an example what the distribution will look like for a particular number of successes per encounter:
imgur.com/Qw6Mb

While this might be an intersting mind game for completely abstract thought it has no actual relevence to the game at all.  We don't deal in complete abstracts, we play within concrete rules that can't be boiled down to the level you are trying to boil them down.  The game is just too situational.

Currently working on making a Dex based defender.  Check it out here
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Need a few pre-generated characters for a one-shot you are running?  Want to get a baseline for what an effective build for a class you aren't familiar with?  Check out the Pregen thread here
If ever you are interested what it sounds like to be at my table check out my blog and podcast here
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