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Switch to Forum Live View 2012: Paizo buys D&D from WotC, Releases 5e
3 years ago  ::  Nov 03, 2010 - 4:45AM #1
Damon_Tor
Date Joined: Jun 20, 2009
Posts: 3,590
That's my prediction.

4e failed, Essentials won't save it.  Hasbro will cut it's losses, and sell the IP to the one company still making a profit off D&D.

Discuss.
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3 years ago  ::  Nov 03, 2010 - 5:23AM #2
ggroy
Date Joined: Aug 16, 2009
Posts: 40
If they do sell the D&D intellectual property, most likely it will be to the highest bidder.

At the present time, I don't know if Paizo or anybody else in the tabletop rpg business, has the deep pockets for such a big purchase.

In principle, the highest bidder could be somebody outside of the tabletop rpg business, such as an MMORPG company (ie. Blizzard, etc ...).   For example back in 2006, the MMO company CCP Games bought up the tabletop rpg company White Wolf.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCP_Games
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3 years ago  ::  Nov 03, 2010 - 5:30AM #3
Guest232734764
Date Joined: Sep 28, 2010
Posts: 91
4E hasn't failed; its still an improvement over 3.5 and Revenge of Spellcaster Edition, I mean Pathfinder.

Essentials, however, just might kill it.
Those who keep quoting the EULA at our complaints should live in shame for their reprehensible behavior, as should WotC. Nicolae Ceauşescu never committed acts as reprehensible as the last few weeks here.
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3 years ago  ::  Nov 03, 2010 - 6:09AM #4
Cyber-Dave
  • I am a plot device.
Date Joined: Sep 20, 2004
Posts: 9,494
I pray to god Paizo never has anything to do with D&D beyond picking up its leftovers and trying to resell them. Pathfinder is the worst piece of crap I have seen in a LONG time.
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3 years ago  ::  Nov 03, 2010 - 6:44AM #5
CelticMutt
  • Dragon Slayer
Date Joined: Jul 25, 2007
Posts: 3,016

Nov 3, 2010 -- 6:09AM, Cyber-Dave wrote:

I like both 4e and Pathfinder, and I have yet to see any objective data to prove that either is doing poorly. The most favorable estimate of Pathfinder still only had it tied with 4e sales. And, it seems like all evidence based on objective sales data says that D&D is still, by and large, outselling Pathfinder.

Oh, and I pray to god Paizo never has anything to do with D&D beyond picking up its leftovers and trying to resell them. Pathfinder is the worst piece of crap I have seen in a LONG time.



Same here.  There is no way WotC is failing that badly, and Pathfinder is of questionable quality at best.

If you really want 3e done right, go with Fantasy Craft, which rips out all the crap from 3e that Pathfinder failed to do, and added in a lot of other cool features.  Of course, it's also way more rules intensive ...

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3 years ago  ::  Nov 03, 2010 - 6:57AM #6
VisanidethDM
Date Joined: Jun 11, 2008
Posts: 869
I won't comment on the quality of the Pathfinder mechanics (I know a lot of people who loves playing Pathfinder because they loved playing 3.5; I just don't feel Pathfinder improved 3.5 in any shape or form).

However, from any perspective you look at it, Pathfinder is, in terms of creativity and intellectual honesty and commercial ethics, one of the most disgusting events in the history of tabletop gaming. Competing against a company by reselling their own products, and more importantly suffocating the market share that could have gone to much more deserving competitors who are actually doing something new on their own, is absolutely and unquestionably the textbook definition of lameness.
Interested in reading about a Dark Sun 4e game? Here's the blog of our current campaign.

My homebrew Dark Sun material:
- the Lord of Blades, a melee oriented Kaisharga/Dead Lord
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3 years ago  ::  Nov 03, 2010 - 8:48AM #7
Damon_Tor
Date Joined: Jun 20, 2009
Posts: 3,590

Nov 3, 2010 -- 5:30AM, Guest232734764 wrote:

4E hasn't failed; its still an improvement over 3.5 and Revenge of Spellcaster Edition, I mean Pathfinder.

Essentials, however, just might kill it.




I'm not saying 4e was a failure in terms of game mechanics.  I quite like it, in fact.

It's a failure in terms of profit.  They wouldn't have fired every creative mind behind it otherwise, and taken such a huge PR risk with essentials, otherwise.

Ggroy may be correct, that someone not currently in the RPG market might buy the IP.

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3 years ago  ::  Nov 03, 2010 - 8:59AM #8
Janx_14
Date Joined: Sep 19, 2007
Posts: 3,448
I think WoTC will still be behind 5e, DDI may however, be dead or viewed to be unprofitable.

DDI has generally been a failure, that also likely hurt 4e's sales due to the CB, and the lack of tools. DDI is effectively back where it was when the CB was launched, as the monster builder is buggy (and I still cant update after letting it download for 3 days) and all their recent dev time has gone into a new CB to replace the old with less features in some attempt to reclaim the loss in sales due to the original CB.

This is in addition to the common view on these forums that the magazine quality is declining (even its fluff is dryer than before).

That said, 5e might revitalize DDI because it they can release a whole lot of support easily again. However, with the new online CB, i wouldnt be surprised if it abandons 4e when it rolls around and create another debacle. Atleast with the offline one those who 'stay behind' in 4e, or simply wish to finish their campaigns before converting wouldnt have been screwed.

I think 5e will likely be WoTC's last D&D though, as 4e doesnt seem to be doing as well as hoped, as shown by the radical change, which seems to be further alienating customer groups. Thats not saying the changes wont bring new people, but the net gain likely won't be too extensive. This will likely cause 5e to have a lower dev budget and try more things that will likely continue to annoy its userbase. The  good news for 5e is atleast the GSL prevents someone from making a '4e pathfinder' like game.
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3 years ago  ::  Nov 03, 2010 - 9:04AM #9
Silver_Blaze
Date Joined: Aug 22, 2007
Posts: 1,341

Nov 3, 2010 -- 8:48AM, Damon_Tor wrote:

Ggroy may be correct, that someone not currently in the RPG market might buy the IP.




The problem with that assessment is that there not only isn't a potential buyer of the magnitude of Hasbro/WotC, but there isn't a seller either.  This isn't a licensed product, it is owned SOLELY by Hasbro, and they don't sell of stuff very often.  If they will do anything with it if it is failing (and it is not, by all accounts), is cease production on it for a few years, let the market regenerate, then go from there.

The money that would be made by selling D&D off would be short term profit.  The heads of a company the likes of Hasbro aren't dumb enough to throw it away for chump change.  Even if Paizo was selling Pathfinder at a 100% profit for a period of several years, they wouldn't even come close to the capital Hasbro would want for it.

CORE MORE, NOT CORE BORE!
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3 years ago  ::  Nov 03, 2010 - 10:45AM #10
Dungeoneering
Date Joined: Aug 17, 2009
Posts: 420

Nov 3, 2010 -- 9:04AM, Silver_Blaze wrote:

Nov 3, 2010 -- 8:48AM, Damon_Tor wrote:

Ggroy may be correct, that someone not currently in the RPG market might buy the IP.




The problem with that assessment is that there not only isn't a potential buyer of the magnitude of Hasbro/WotC, but there isn't a seller either.  This isn't a licensed product, it is owned SOLELY by Hasbro, and they don't sell of stuff very often.  If they will do anything with it if it is failing (and it is not, by all accounts), is cease production on it for a few years, let the market regenerate, then go from there.

The money that would be made by selling D&D off would be short term profit.  The heads of a company the likes of Hasbro aren't dumb enough to throw it away for chump change.  Even if Paizo was selling Pathfinder at a 100% profit for a period of several years, they wouldn't even come close to the capital Hasbro would want for it.


I think from a strictly business perspective, D&D is kind of an odd fit for Hasbro.  It's not a toy line, it's a book line with some peripheral products attached. 

As far as I can tell, Hasbro originally bought WotC to get its hands on M:tG.  D&D isn't core to what they do, which is selling collectibles and toys to families and kids.  I'm sure they appreciate D&D as a steady (if unspectacular) revenue stream, but doubt they have much interest in it beyond that.

Companies often 'refocus' during hard times by selling off parts of their business that they have acquired that are not part of their core focus.  Assuming Hasbro was in a cash crunch, D&D would be just the kind of thing they would be looking to dump, moderately profitable or not.

This is all purely speculative, as far as I know Hasbro is doing okay thanks to a steady stream of Hollywood movie tie-ins courtesy of one Michael Bay.

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