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Feb 16, 2010 -- 9:53PM, Keithric wrote:

Its attack is +9/1d12+3 x2, 1d6 quarry, +2d12 crit. With the -5 for darkness and the dragon's AC 23, the ranger is looking for 19s and 20s. For an average of about 4.5 damage per round (mostly varying between 34 damage hits and 13 damage ones, with an awful lot of misses). The other people with longbow's in the group are doing, say, 1d10+2 damage and need non-critting 20s to hit, for an average of .75 per round added for both of them. Or 5.25 per round against a 296 hp critter, or 56 rounds of combat. If nothing goes wrong.

Those numbers aren't quite accurate:
Merely it being night doesn't make things dark. It makes it low-light, which is likely not a problem for the Ranger. The Ranger also should likely have a +12, not a +9(starting Dex of +4, +2 for bow, +2 for level, +2 for +2 vicious greatbow, +1 for prime shot, +1 for weapon expertise = +12). That turns that 19 into an 11.

High-Str characters have likely invested in a +1 Distance Javelin(360 gp). If the Dragon is in bright light, they no longer need a 20 to hit it, likely more around a 16 or so. And if a Fighter is marking that Dragon, then it has a penalty to hit.

Even though the Dragon is at 22 away, there are multiple ways to get that sunrod up 2 squares so as to illuminate it. Mage Hand, standing on shoulders, having the guys without low-light ready for someone tossing it 3 squares into the air and shooting when the Dragon is illuminated, etc...

If you run the numbers, the Dragon likely dies in that situation before he can really drop that Ranger.

Feb 17, 2010 -- 1:05PM, Keithric wrote:

Darn it. Teach me to do math while sick. Hmm. Only off by +3 though (forgot prime shot entirely, as well as one of the +2s), so if the darkness matters then it's still a 16. That still makes the ranger lose, but it's a _lot_ closer.

I'm a bit dubious on the numbers on 5th level characters who have +1 distance javelins, myself. A lot of those guys are saving up for iron armbands. I don't think I've seen one yet at that level.

A distance javelin is 360 gp, returns to your hand, and if you don't buy a regular javelin or longbow at 1st level, it is partially paid for

But the darkness part is what's really key about the scenario. You need the writer saying that the night is moonless, the party can't get a light source into the air two squares up and the DM saying that the Dragon decides to hover at 22 squares away. That's a lot things that need to go together.

Feb 17, 2010 -- 6:11PM, Keithric wrote:

And yeah, the entire thing requires the darkness thing. At least if there's a ranger. Without the ranger they're in worse shape. And no matter what it's pretty boring.

There should be no real problem getting a light up in the air. At the absolute worst, one character can throw it up and the rest ready to shoot when they see it up there. Any character with a flying familiar has an obvious strategy. If there's any sort of tree around, someone is almost certain to be able to TP or climb it and get the light visible.

Basic attacks will be a grind, yes. But the combat will actual be pretty fast. Roll all attacks simultaneously, subtract damage, repeat. Maybe 30 seconds for a round. Once you get it bloodied, it'll probable work out that this strategy is not working and quit or do something else.

But the bottom line is that this is a boring combat, and so the reason not to include it is not that it's a TPK -- it shouldn't be -- but that it's boring.  

Feb 18, 2010 -- 4:11PM, GrahamWills wrote:

There should be no real problem getting a light up in the air. At the absolute worst, one character can throw it up and the rest ready to shoot when they see it up there.  

So you know, I'm now picturing Daen (my warlord, with whom Graham plays often) juggling three lit sunrods, throwing them as high up as he can, so the rest of you can shoot the stupid dragon.