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RanielK wrote:

Best Case: The Judge says yes to GenCon LLC's plan, GenCon Indy is on, everyone rejoices!

It's not just a judge. They have to present their plan to a judge in a court (which they have 120 days after filing to do), and then convince their creditors, all of them, to agree with the plan (which they have an additional 60 days to do, for a total of 180).

RanielK wrote:

Worst Case: The Judge says no, GenCon must be broken up now and "sold off" to pay its creditors. Those creditors who paid to be at GenCon Indy 2008 are listed as lowest on totem pole. Now WoTC in its own right might be a creditor due for pay back, but it is a good chance the RPGA as a signed up event organizer isn't. Bad for RPGA, really bad for the little guy who sunk a lot to get to GenCon and make a bit of scratch for himself.

But, as stated earlier, the 180 day deadline after filing -when GenCon can be broken up and sold- falls after GenCon Indy 2008. So that Convention will happen regardless of later events.

So, really, the worst case is they suck-in a whole bunch of people for GenCon, cancel at the last minute, then take the money and run leaving even more creditors to tear at the broke shreds.

Well, there are really several potential problems here, none of which necessarily make the decision open and shut, but which do (from WoTC's perspective) need to be considered.

1. Presumably, WoTC/Hasbro are creditors of GenCon LLC. If that is the case, they may be waiting to see how GenCon plans to repay its creditors. Perhaps its with future credits at the show, perhaps its with direct pay, but at any rate it may be unknown at this time.

2. There is a chance (albeit extremely small imho) that GenCon will be cancelled due to the bankruptcy. It costs money, and lots of it, for WoTC to attend. WoTC has to get their people there. They have to get their booth there. They have to ship their products there. They have to find places for their people to stay, perhaps even find space to store their product that won't fit in the booth, etc. All of this has to be arranged, and in most cases (shipping excluded) paid for, in advance. That is a lot of money to shell out for something that ultimately, may not happen.

3. WoTC is a strong business partner with Lucasfilms. Lucasfilms is suing GenCon LLC. The licensing agreement is presumably not indefinite and it would be logical to assume that Hasbro/WoTC want to keep that licensing when it expires. This means keeping Lucasfilms happy.

Now, as for the lack of communication, there are also multiple things for WoTC to consider.

1. They don't want to anger any of their business partners and potentiall "call them out" so to speak even if unintentional. Both Lucasfilms and GenCon are partners.

2. Its still up in the air as to whether or not they will attend, so they certainly don't want to say that they are not going to be there, while at the same time they don't want to say that they will be there either. Which leaves us still in the limbo of "Wait and see".

3. Is it bad marketing to not make things clear for the fans/customers? Of course. However, they still need to look at the big picture which is money. Obviously being able to have a big kickoff at GenCon Indy would be good for both 4th Ed and LFR. However, neither 4th Ed or LFR are dependent upon a succesful Con at GenCon for their ultimate survival. Only a small percentage of players actually go to Gen Con -- even though there are a ton of people there. Both 4th Ed and LFR will be dependent upon their content to survive. If players like what's in 4th Ed then they will buy the products, if they don't they wont.

Nothing that happens at Gen Con will change that. Players won't say "Well the rules for 4th Ed are really bad and convoluted, but hey WoTC had an awesome presence at GenCon so, I'm buying everything from 4th Ed I can." Likewise players won't say "Sure I really like 4th Ed, in fact its way better than 3rd Ed but since WoTC wasn't at GenCon I'm not going to buy it."

Additionally, while I'm sure WotC grosses a lot of money at GenCon, I'm not certain as to how much profit they actually make at GenCon. As stated earlier, the cost output to attend by WoTC is huge. Event tickets certainly help defray that, as does the sales they make, but I'm not certain that it will result in a huge profit. Ultimately WoTC's presence at GenCon is more about Marketing than it is about Profit. (and yes I realize that the two are related) In the end though, 4th Ed will live or die by its content, not by WoTC's presence (or lack thereof) at GenCon.