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5 years ago ::
May 16, 2008 - 9:47AM
#21
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What is your technique for determining the number of drafts that are firing per hour?
It's not nearly scientific enough. What my goal is is to check every hour and see the average per hour every hour. However, for the time being, I have to settle for average per hour for lumps of hours, which only has meaning if I take data samples at similar intervals (which I've been trying to do).
So I generally grab numbers around 8am, 11am, 2pm, 8pm and 10pm, and get the average per hour between those points. Which means we lose granularity between 10pm and 8am, so I can't tell you if there's a slow decrease throughout the evening or a heavy hit and then a large drop off.
For the overall number I take the number of drafts from when I first started through when I stopped, and take the number of minutes that have passed since I started and my last point, convert the minutes to hours and divide the drafts by the hours (to 5? decimal points, I think, I'll have to check).
MTGO SVCL - Ask me for help if you're lost or confused!
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5 years ago ::
May 16, 2008 - 10:02AM
#22
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Date Joined:
Mar 27, 2006
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Great work and interesting information, Hamtastic.
I also notice some very helpful upgrades to the headings compared to last published versions.
If there's room to squeeze it in, I'd strongly suggest adding calendar dates (i.e., I presume that the last 'Monday' shown is 5-12-08).
This information will be invaluable should you choose to look at those graphs again in a few weeks' time, or even later.
I too, look forward to looking at this data again in a month or two, hopefully with an upwards slope.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity. R. A. Heinlein - 1907-1988.
My (now not-so) new sig. - adopted to celebrate certain events at WOTC culminating in April 2008.
Now also celebrating other idiotic events in August 2009.
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5 years ago ::
May 16, 2008 - 10:03AM
#23
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Date Joined:
Mar 13, 2008
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I am assuming then that what you have labelled as drafts (in both charts) is actually the combined total of drafts and 8-player constructed events. Is this correct?
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5 years ago ::
May 16, 2008 - 10:06AM
#24
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...I know that there were packs in people's collection when V3 started. But 120,000 packs? I'm sure at least SOME of them have come from the store. They have to have.
I used a coupon I got from a V2 crash to buy packs through the V3 store!
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5 years ago ::
May 16, 2008 - 10:08AM
#25
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Regardless of what we might glean from these stats, I want to thank Ham for taking the time to do it. When you have some of those other numbers handy, they will be equally interesting; thanks for the great work.
As I've mentioned in other posts, draft health doesn't necessarily equate to system health. With two significant limited formats down, all players have a single way to play limited. Obv. this means an increase in users for that format---yet we're not seeing that. At best, it's about the same.
Is WotC making money? Yes, I would say that's highly likely.
Is v3 losing fans/users? Yes, the boards make that obvious; and there are certainly more than just those posting (on a board that requires such a lame opt-in procedure, as well).
Could they make a whole lot more money? If they had a clue how to make software, I think this is equally obvious. From just the people posting, they're probably losing $100,000 at least year (lowballing 100 diehards at $1000 per).
Should they exhibit better communication? Of course. No blog post this week; regularly failing to live up to their own promises is highly problematic.
Have I played since launch? Less times than I can count on one hand.
Thanks Ham. It's good to look at the stats to have a better idea of where WotC stands in relation to forum goers. Which is to say, they would like to help us, but profitability has not yet made that a necessity ... expect a slow road ahead. I will not give them another dime.
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5 years ago ::
May 16, 2008 - 10:09AM
#26
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Date Joined:
Oct 30, 2003
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Very interesting numbers Hammy.
I went searching for algona's old posts and could not find them.
Do you remember what the ratio of packs cracked through drafting was to packs cracked through leagues and other types of tournaments? I think packs opened is really a decent measure of profits (seen in the longer term, packs cracked will equal packs bought). Drafts are about the same, were the other leagues and tournaments pretty minor compared to drafting? thats always the sense I get.
PS I oppose moving this thread (characteristically).
PPS Jibe = to be in accord, to agree.
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5 years ago ::
May 16, 2008 - 10:26AM
#27
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For those curious about the secondary market right now, here's the Ham Jones Average with the most current data I have.  What is this thread? It's a breakdown by format of the value of 1x card. So, the classic is 1x of every set only legal in Classic. Extended is sets that aren't in Classic and not in Standard, and Standard is obv, Standard. There's about five weeks of data gap between the last point and the second to th last point. What that means is that we don't have any new numbers for those weeks (either due to MTGO being offline, or the dealers not updating their numbers, etc). However, I extrapolated where we'd end up if we took the smallest loss reported in any of the weeks for its respective format and moved it five weeks out, and we ended up pretty close to where we are now. So, overall, the secondary market is falling, at about the same rate is was falling when V2, with PE's and Redemption, were up and running.
MTGO SVCL - Ask me for help if you're lost or confused!
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5 years ago ::
May 16, 2008 - 10:27AM
#28
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One full league equals approximately 53.3 drafts, or about 2.5 hours of drafting (at 22 drafts per hour). As they launched probably on average of about once a day (guessing here, with all leagues combined), that's about 17.5 hours of 22 drafts per hour lost each week without leagues.
PEs are a much different story. I would guess they fall a little higher; likely in the 24-48 hour worth of drafting range. I would guess that, roughly, WotC is making about 6/10 of what they averaged in non-release time on v2.5.
This is still highly profitable (again, a guess), even given high costs.
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5 years ago ::
May 16, 2008 - 10:36AM
#29
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Date Joined:
Oct 17, 2007
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this would be more useful of a timeline if it stretched from 2.5 - 3.0 so we can see the over all progress.
I still have yet to login once for v3 aside from my initial try.
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5 years ago ::
May 16, 2008 - 10:39AM
#30
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Date Joined:
Jul 24, 2004
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For those curious about the secondary market right now, here's the Ham Jones Average with the most current data I have.
Current data comes from ... ?
The source of these prices seem like thay can be highly subjective.
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