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3 months ago ::
Mar 11, 2013 - 9:22AM
#41
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Date Joined:
Jan 23, 2007
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Question:
Let's say you're in orzhov and on the draw. Your hand consists of a dutiful thrull, an orzhov guildgate, 2 syndics of tithes, and 3 nonland, 3+ cmc spells. Do you keep?
18 lands, vs Dimir, Simic,Orzhov, or unknown, yes.
17 lands, vs Dimir, yes. vs. unknown, no.
This seems absurdly precise. The difference between drawing 17/33 and 16/33 is is 48.5% vs. 51.5%
what you really need is to draw 3 lands in the next 5 cards. With 17 left in the library that's 50%. With 16 it's 45%.
the excel function for this is - replace 17 with 16 for the shorter land deck.
=HYPGEOM.DIST(3,5,17,33,FALSE)+HYPGEOM.DIST(4,5,17,33,FALSE)
It's 2-3% more if you are happy with pulling 5 lands on your next 5 (which I guess you are... depends on what the 3+CMC spells are!)
The number of lands indicates what the curve of the deck is. A 17-land deck should have adverage CMC around 2.5, vs 3.0+ for an 18-land deck.
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3 months ago ::
Mar 11, 2013 - 9:56AM
#42
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The number of lands indicates what the curve of the deck is. A 17-land deck should have adverage CMC around 2.5, vs 3.0+ for an 18-land deck.
What is the source of this? I know it's "common knowledge" these days, but someone, somewhere did the math on it. I would like to read it.
What are the numbers for 60 card decks?
Or maybe I better make some graphs...
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