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4 months ago ::
Jan 23, 2013 - 11:50AM
#21
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Date Joined:
Sep 30, 2010
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That's the thing about chance...you can't have too many expectations about it
Heh, heh. Really, that's going to be your line? If you flipped a coin dozens of times you wouldn't expect heads and tails to come up with equal frequency? If you rolled two six-sided dice dozens of times you wouldn't expect to roll a 7 more often than any other number?
Obviously yes, but I would not consider the dice or coin broken if the result was not the exact median result. In fact, a "wrong" result is very likely (individually more unlikely than the "right" result but together far more likely). You roll a 7 only something like 1/6th of the time.
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4 months ago ::
Jan 23, 2013 - 1:38PM
#22
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Date Joined:
Aug 13, 2012
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What exactly is wrong with testing the MTGO shuffler? I've been keeping records of draws and the common thread behind all of them was that online clumps of lands come up considerably more often than one would expect by chance.
What's your sample size here? If you haven't recorded at least 10,000+ (preferably 100,000+) draws, you're not going to get anything statistically significant. This reminds me of people trying to prove that the RNGs at online poker sites are rigged.
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4 months ago ::
Jan 23, 2013 - 1:40PM
#23
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Date Joined:
Sep 26, 2011
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Good to know this 
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4 months ago ::
Jan 23, 2013 - 1:50PM
#24
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Date Joined:
Jun 15, 2009
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What exactly is wrong with testing the MTGO shuffler? I've been keeping records of draws and the common thread behind all of them was that online clumps of lands come up considerably more often than one would expect by chance.
What's your sample size here? If you haven't recorded at least 10,000+ (preferably 100,000+) draws, you're not going to get anything statistically significant. This reminds me of people trying to prove that the RNGs at online poker sites are rigged.
If you want to read about the test you can go over to the Online forum where the results are posted.
As for sample size, there are no Magic numbers in statistics. Not 10,000, not 100,000. If you had a particular p value you were looking for you could calculate the minimum number of samples required observe that value, but that number is not going to be anywhere near 10,000.
If you observe a small deviation from the expected results over a large number of samples, that can be statistically significant, as can a large deviation from the expected results over a small number of samples. Sample size is built into every test.
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4 months ago ::
Jan 23, 2013 - 2:02PM
#25
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- Volunteer Community Lead
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Date Joined:
Apr 14, 2007
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Oh look, another one of these topics. Why do you spend so much time complaining about bad luck and researching online shuffler and/or mulligan statistics? How does this make you a better player? I complain sometimes. Stupid crap happens. But many times, you have to put a significant amount of stock in skill, both your's and your opponent's. At the RtR pre-release, I went 5-2, losing in the final two rounds. I was frustrated (my last opponent's deck was an insane Selesnya deck with multiple Grove of the Guardians  with tons of populate) and ended up missing top 8, despite having the highest tiebreakers of all the 5-1s going into the final round. Later on, knowing more about the format, I thought about my deck selection. I chose Selesnya as my guild and ran blue alongside those colors with a light splash of black, which I thought I could do very easily because of my two Chromatic Lantern  s. I had removal and tricks up the wazoo. On the other hand, my pool was STACKED. I had three Annihilating Fire  s that were seeing no use due to guild alignment not working. I had plenty of playable Selesnya cards that I eschewed for the third and fourth colors adding more removal. I easily could have ran straight-up g/w with that pool and ended up with a more consistent, cohesive deck. But I didn't. Instead, I fell to the luck of the tiebreakers, and although I'm still puzzled how I fell so far (seriously, did all of my opponents lose their matches or something?), I can't just blame it on luck. I made mistakes. Although you know much more about a format as time passes, so does everyone else. Stop worrying about mulligans and become a better player.
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4 months ago ::
Jan 23, 2013 - 6:34PM
#26
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Date Joined:
Oct 11, 2007
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Well actually his data may be showing that his prior mulligan algorithm was flawed.
As for the MTGO shuffler, people have long said that it seems harsher because IRL people shuffle imperfectly. Personally I don't know about such things, not having played IRL Magic for many, many years.
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4 months ago ::
Jan 23, 2013 - 6:44PM
#27
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- UnCon 3CM Master
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Date Joined:
Jul 25, 2005
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I'm not sure why everyone is jumping on silentbob here. He just realized that he was mulliganing too much before. Now he's learned that a lot of hands are worth keeping even though they don't look good at first glance. It's a good lesson.
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4 months ago ::
Jan 23, 2013 - 7:12PM
#28
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Date Joined:
Sep 10, 2006
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I'm not sure why everyone is jumping on silentbob here. He just realized that he was mulliganing too much before. Now he's learned that a lot of hands are worth keeping even though they don't look good at first glance. It's a good lesson.
A reasonable person would have come to those conclusions. However, Bobus is using this as a way to say the modo shuffler is flawed and imply that the mulligan rules should be changed. If you're not fed up with him you've obviously not endured that much of his mindless drivel.
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4 months ago ::
Jan 25, 2013 - 10:37AM
#29
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Date Joined:
Jun 15, 2009
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I'm not sure why everyone is jumping on silentbob here. He just realized that he was mulliganing too much before. Now he's learned that a lot of hands are worth keeping even though they don't look good at first glance. It's a good lesson.
A reasonable person would have come to those conclusions. However, Bobus is using this as a way to say the modo shuffler is flawed and imply that the mulligan rules should be changed. If you're not fed up with him you've obviously not endured that much of his mindless drivel.
The MtGO shuffler flaw and mulliganing strategy are too separate things. In order to test the shuffler I needed to not mulligan for several games. In doing so I realized that I did better not mulliganing any 1 or 5 land hands than I had making decisions based on the cards (and generally dumping most 1 landers) Which I thought was an interesting result in itself.
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4 months ago ::
Jan 25, 2013 - 12:21PM
#30
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Date Joined:
Nov 18, 2012
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I'm not sure why everyone is jumping on silentbob here. He just realized that he was mulliganing too much before. Now he's learned that a lot of hands are worth keeping even though they don't look good at first glance. It's a good lesson.
A reasonable person would have come to those conclusions. However, Bobus is using this as a way to say the modo shuffler is flawed and imply that the mulligan rules should be changed. If you're not fed up with him you've obviously not endured that much of his mindless drivel.
The MtGO shuffler flaw and mulliganing strategy are too separate things. In order to test the shuffler I needed to not mulligan for several games. In doing so I realized that I did better not mulliganing any 1 or 5 land hands than I had making decisions based on the cards (and generally dumping most 1 landers) Which I thought was an interesting result in itself.
How does not mulliganing test the shuffler again?
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