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7 months ago ::
Dec 17, 2012 - 11:13PM
#11
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Date Joined:
Apr 30, 2004
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HATE the 4-booster removal. They were by far my favorite event -ever- on mtgo.
And this phantom crap has got to stop. They already killed TNM. I used to try to play every single limited TNM. Since the change I haven't even bothered looking once.
This really sucks that we have less than a week left on 4 booster queues. I was looking forward to playing a bunch of rtr the last week of the year / first week of the new year. Glad I didn't buy my packs yet.
All I can hope is that the 6-booster phantom queues do horrible and we get the 4 booster queues back. But given the history of just making changes, letting things die, and removing them I do not have high expectations.
Not one change excites me in that whole article and with the looming switching off of v3 into a collection binder-less new client, i'm not looking forward to 2013 at all.
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7 months ago ::
Dec 17, 2012 - 11:56PM
#12
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Date Joined:
Dec 18, 2012
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Here is the thing. Phantom queues make sense for cube because you obviously can't allow people to keep Power 9 cards. But that format also works because it is unique. The reason it is popular is because people like odd formats like that where they get to use cards they normally wouldn't. The prize payout for it is HORRIBLE, but Wizards can suck up money from it because they can.
Now, on the other hand, you've got phantom queues for 6-booster sealed. I may not be Nostradamus, but I can tell you right now with absolutely ZERO DOUBT that this format is going to fail. Hard. As I said before Phantom works with cube because it is unique. It will NEVER work for sealed because people will simply opt to draft or play regular 6 pack sealed. The payout for this proposed phantom sealed is also terrible.
The reason people play 4-pack sealed is because it is efficient. It has amazing expected value. You get to keep your cards and if you go 2-1 you're probably going to make a profit. There is absolutely no hope whatsoever for people to get any value out of phantom sealed, and thus, they will not play it. It is a BLATANT cash grab attempt by the powers that be and it is going to fail. The fact that players have to lose 4 pack sealed as well is just an extra kick to the groin.
In their proposed Phantom Sealed they have a buy-in of 8 tickets x 8 players = (64 tix) and a payout of 3/2/2/2/1/1/1/0 = 12 x 4 = (48 tix) Their profit per event is 16.
I propose they change the Buy-in to 10 tickets and change the prizes to 5/3/1. I would expect people would be much more likely to play the event if it were set up like this. The Buy-in would be 10 x 8 = 80 tix. The payout of 5/3/3/3/1/1/1/0 would be 18 x 4 = (72 tix) Their profit per event would be 8.
I would be MUCH more likely to join the event that I created than their event. Then again they would be effectively cutting their profit margin in half per queue. I expect people would queue for mine much more often though so it would probably even itself out.
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7 months ago ::
Dec 18, 2012 - 12:13AM
#13
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I also have a suggestion to the payout system, and it is the same as I suggested when the cube tickets were introduced, a system that you guys apparently liked because you opted it now for the new cube.
I completely disagree with bmilz, namely this:
I think that people will love doing phantom sealed events, and the high demand for sealed simulators proves this, also a not-mentioned here website that wotc recently forced to be shut down is prove of that.
This being said, I think making a swiss queu with 2 tickets buy in, and no price pool (or phantom tickets, which can be a substitute for cube tickets + phantom events), will please the general populous more, and therefor see much more activity in these events.
It also avoids one of the decisions wotc admits struggles with, namely allowing people to play magic without those players investing into cards for the game. If you make swiss sealed phantom events with bad/no EV, but low entree fee, this will allow a new customer base to exist. People who want to have fun for a small amount of money.
There is a reason why FTP games are currently doing so well, take League of Legends for example.
Also why most gaming companies opted for the DLC mechanic, while lowering the price of the basegame they are selling.
It also has similarities how China has opted their financial system towards games, if it works for 2 billion people, it has to have some merit right?
For me personally it would also be a motivation to play these events, if I wanted to play an event with a reward system, I would be playing events with a higher EV. Not a format that is by definition higher luck dependant, with a very low EV, even if I like the format itself.
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7 months ago ::
Dec 18, 2012 - 12:35AM
#14
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Date Joined:
Dec 18, 2012
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I kind of understood the idea you proposed of a 2 ticket entry fee with no prize payout (At first). But that also makes little to no sense to me when I thought about it. The game results wouldn't matter. You might get a few casuals who would enter, but what would the point be? You need some kind of incentive in terms of winning/losing. Are you saying that people would pay $2 for something that essentially amounts to just a RNG card generator? Stupid. Perhaps if you made it 3 tickets to join that event and gave a prize payout of 2/1/1/1/0/0/0/0 you MIGHT be getting somewhere. That would make the event super cheap, but would keep some incentive for winning.
Here is the thing I don't understand. Right now there are constructed queues with a 2 ticket entry fee. The payout is one pack. This essentially creates a zero-sum tournament. It is no different than somebody paying 4 tickets for a pack online. Wizards is still happy that people need to put money into the system buying tickets. They are still making a profit.
If you are going to have phantom events I propose that the prize payout is equal to the amount of pay-in. At WORST the payout should be 90% of the Pay-in if you are going to have phantom events. That would be a pretty fair "rake" that I feel most people could live with. This proposed sealed is a much, much bigger ripoff than you think. A pay-in of 64 with a payout of 48 means that they are essentially taking 25% of what people put in and not giving out anything in return. That is a ripoff. Plain and simple.
Simply put: If you are going to have phantom events then the payout NEEDS to be equal or almost equal to the pay-in. It just has to. I actually see no reason why it can't be a 10 ticket buy-in and pay out 5/3/3/3/2/2/2/0. This would be a zero-sum tournament and would be no different in theory than their current constructed queues. Even at 4/3/3/3/2/2/2/0 I think it would be acceptable. I take back what I wrote in an earlier message. An 8 ticket profit is a horrible rip-off in a phantom event. A 4 ticket profit (out of a buy-in of 80) is a much more fair deal, but there is absolutely no logical reason why the payout can't equal the pay-in. NONE. ZERO.
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7 months ago ::
Dec 18, 2012 - 12:58AM
#15
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Date Joined:
Mar 20, 2003
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Well, Chris probably did a good job from a WotC perspective. Tighten those margins, up the profit.
I guess the "lifetime MOPR" points will be used for awesome things to come :/
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7 months ago ::
Dec 18, 2012 - 1:12AM
#16
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I think you misunderstood my point.
I absolutely agree that my suggested EV is much worse (for the customer) than the formerly suggested format in the original article.
However for a potential customer there is a big difference.
There are enough people who do not care about a payout, and in their point of view they pay 4x the amount, than they would do with my suggested setup.
If this would increase the amount of participants for the events, while slightly lowering the EV for the customer, it will likely not change the profit that WOTC would make over these events (and most likely increase it). However it will definitely increase the potential customers they would reach.
However for alot of people, it is a relief not to be worried about potential amount of wins, and if they would play 2-3 events a month it would cost them potentially less than playing 1 event a month.
Also your view is based on your perspective, which is based on making potential profit of events, alot of people play for fun (especially if they invest 3-4 hours of their time).
Also for others it would be an easy way to practice for a potential GP or PT, while the potential opposition skill is lower, it is a much lower investment for them to practice out new theories/strategies.
Also I think phantom event ticks would be the best solution, giving people who do well the potential to go infinite on these events, while lowering the entrance tresshold for others.
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7 months ago ::
Dec 18, 2012 - 1:18AM
#17
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Date Joined:
Dec 18, 2012
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I think you misunderstood my point.
I absolutely agree that my suggested EV is much worse (for the customer) than the formerly suggested format in the original article.
However for a potential customer there is a big difference.
There are enough people who do not care about a payout, and in their point of view they pay 4x the amount, than they would do with my suggested setup.
If this would increase the amount of participants for the events, while slightly lowering the EV for the customer, it will likely not change the profit that WOTC would make over these events (and most likely increase it). However it will definitely increase the potential customers they would reach.
What you proposed was a 2 ticket entry fee and zero reward. I propose a 3 ticket entry fee with fair rewards and somehow that is worse? Even people who as you say "play for fun" are going to pick my format. Probably every single time.
If you want to use what you called "Phantom Tickets" you could do the same thing instead of packs. But you can't have a format with an entry fee and no prizes. That isn't going to work.
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7 months ago ::
Dec 18, 2012 - 1:20AM
#18
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Date Joined:
Dec 18, 2012
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Well, Chris probably did a good job from a WotC perspective. Tighten those margins, up the profit.
I guess the "lifetime MOPR" points will be used for awesome things to come :/
You are entirely right. 4-booster sealed was a format where players paid in 0 tickets in entry fee (just used product) and came away with a prize pool of 17 packs. To replace that they are going to be using a format that has an entry fee of 64 with a prize pool of 12 packs. Are people so blind as to not see how horrible of a deal that is comparatively? The more I think about it the more of a joke it becomes.
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7 months ago ::
Dec 18, 2012 - 2:02AM
#19
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Date Joined:
Jun 21, 2007
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phantom drafts/sealed is horrible and will fail.
Also a ripoff but wotc knows that.
Its way more of a ripoff than you are realizing though. Everyone is assuming the packs cost 4$ that wotc gives out.They cost NOTHING. wotc makes 64$ profit on one of these sealeds. paper tourneys have higher prizes, and the prizes actually cost something for the TO. Digital packs cost nothing but yet they cannot even come close to matching paper prizes?
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7 months ago ::
Dec 18, 2012 - 2:14AM
#20
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About 6-booster phantom vs 4-booster sealed:
Currently 4-booster sealed is about the only limited event with a someone decent Expected Value (EV). One of the important factors for this is it doesn't require tickets to enter but only boosters. In all examples listed above booster prices have been fixed at 4 tickets but we all know this isn't true as booster prices usually fluctuate between 3,5 and 3,8 (rough estimate). The 4-booster sealed is different from other events (other than draft), because the EV goes up as booster prices go down, which makes it an important tool for players seeking to get the most out of their boosters.
Example:
Current 4-booster sealed: entry 4*8 boosters = 32 boosters, payout 5/3/3/3/1/1/1 = 17 boosters. loss for the players = 15 booster - product opened.
Product opened is about 1.25 each booster, so for a 4-booster sealed that's 5 tickets each, 40 tickets opened total by 8 players.
At a price of 4 tickets a booster, the net loss for players is 15*4-40=20 tickets, or 2.5 tickets per player.
In the new 6-booster phantom sealed: entry 8*8 tickets = 64 tickets, payout 3/2/2/2/1/1/1 = 12 boosters. no product added to accounts
At a price of 4 tickets a booster, the net loss for players is 64-12*4=16 tickets, or 2 tickets per player. Notice how this is higher EV for the average player.
However, once we use realistic booster prices thing become different:
Say we use current the RTR booster price of 3.67 instead of 4.
In the current 4-booster sealed the net loss for players is now 15*3,67-40=15 tickets, or just under 2 tickets per player
Compared to the new 6-booster phantom sealed, which gives a net loss for player of 64-12*3,67=20 tickets, or 2.5 tickets per player. Notice how this more realistic example shows higher EV for the old 4-booster sealed.
More so these new phantom events offer worse price support for better players and therefore going 'infinite' is almost impossible. Using a 60% matchwinpercentage and the current RTR pack price, the current EV for a 4-booster sealed is about 0.
The new 6-booster phantom sealed offers an EV of almost -1.4 using the same matchwinpercentage and RTR booster price. The breakeven point is at 72.5% given current pack prices, so nearly impossible. Given this payout I suspect the 6-booster phantom sealeds won't be popular with the grinders.
p.s. EV depends heavily on product opened in the current 4-booster sealed. At the moment AVR is by far the best set to open a booster, with an EV of 1.91, followed by DKA=1.55, M13=1.28, ISD=1.20 and RTR=1.14. Therefore it would be nice to, at least sometimes, have the option of playing in other sealeds than the latest set + latest core set.
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