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8 months ago  ::  Nov 07, 2012 - 1:34PM #1
SereneChaos
Date Joined: Apr 21, 2010
Posts: 4,092
So, after noticing that Frenetic Efreet has been re-errata'd to his original functionality, I'm lookint into building the Efreet+ Chance Encounter deck.

The thing is, at a tournament, if I announce that I'm activating the ability a trillion times, do I have to flip a trillion coins, or can my opponent and I just assume that I'm going to win at least 10 of those coin flips?

Rationality tells me that I have to flip all of them, because it is a random outcome and can't be assumed, but really, does an event ever become so likely that we can shortcut it?
Etiamnunc sto, etiamsi caelum ruat.
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8 months ago  ::  Nov 07, 2012 - 1:44PM #2
ikegami
Date Joined: Nov 16, 2007
Posts: 2,258

Nov 7, 2012 -- 1:34PM, SereneChaos wrote:

does an event ever become so likely that we can shortcut it?


No.

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8 months ago  ::  Nov 07, 2012 - 1:46PM #3
ikegami
Date Joined: Nov 16, 2007
Posts: 2,258
You can even be found guilty of Slow Play for simply attempting this in a tourney.

It is also slow play if a player continues to execute a loop without being able to provide an exact number of iterations and the expected resulting game state.


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8 months ago  ::  Nov 07, 2012 - 1:54PM #4
SereneChaos
Date Joined: Apr 21, 2010
Posts: 4,092

Nov 7, 2012 -- 1:46PM, ikegami wrote:

You can even be found guilty of Slow Play for simply attempting this in a tourney.

It is also slow play if a player continues to execute a loop without being able to provide an exact number of iterations and the expected resulting game state.





But I can provide both of those.

"My number if iterations is one million, and the expected gamestate is that my Efreet will either phase or be sacced, and my Chance Encounter will gain at least 10 luck counters". 

Etiamnunc sto, etiamsi caelum ruat.
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8 months ago  ::  Nov 07, 2012 - 1:58PM #5
cyphern
Date Joined: Jan 19, 2003
Posts: 17,752

and the expected gamestate is that my Efreet will either phase or be sacced


Which is it, phased or sacced? If you can't say which one, then you are not telling us the expected gamestate, you're telling us a list of possible gamestates.

 and my Chance Encounter will gain at least 10 luck counters


First, "at least 10 luck counters" is not a gamestate, it is a list of possible gamestates (in fact, it's a list of just shy of a million gamestates). Secondly, while it is quite likely you'll get 10 luck counters in 1 million flips, it is not guaranteed.

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8 months ago  ::  Nov 07, 2012 - 2:03PM #6
EyeHunter
Date Joined: Jan 23, 2007
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Nov 7, 2012 -- 1:46PM, ikegami wrote:

You can even be found guilty of Slow Play for simply attempting this in a tourney.

It is also slow play if a player continues to execute a loop without being able to provide an exact number of iterations and the expected resulting game state.




Isn't the intent of this rule to prevent endlessly activating Orochi Leafcaller or such? The intent here is markedly different.

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8 months ago  ::  Nov 07, 2012 - 2:07PM #7
cyphern
Date Joined: Jan 19, 2003
Posts: 17,752

Nov 7, 2012 -- 2:03PM, EyeHunter wrote:


Isn't the intent of this rule to prevent endlessly activating Orochi Leafcaller or such?


It may do that too, but the rule is definitely applicable to cases like the one serenechaos is asking about. In fact, the rule has actually been coming up recently in legacy tournaments, involving repeated milling + emrakul (see also toby elliott's take on the rule).

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8 months ago  ::  Nov 07, 2012 - 2:28PM #8
Shard_Fenix
Date Joined: Jan 24, 2011
Posts: 2,059
Yes but in the horsemen deck, it's possible to mess it up by doing something wrong with part of your combo. It's not possible to mess up the Frenetic Efreet combo (in fact, the entire combo is mandatory after you activate the ability). Anyone can see that, given enough activations, chance encounter will have at least ten luck counters on it. You can pick a number high enough to statistically guarantee that you will get ten wins aroudn the time a Boltzmann Brain appears.

The alternative is to flip once, perform the outcome, then apply a shortcut.
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8 months ago  ::  Nov 07, 2012 - 2:33PM #9
ikegami
Date Joined: Nov 16, 2007
Posts: 2,258

Nov 7, 2012 -- 1:54PM, SereneChaos wrote:

But I can provide both of those.

"My number if iterations is one million, and the expected gamestate is that my Efreet will either phase or be sacced, and my Chance Encounter will gain at least 10 luck counters". 


No, you can't. "Efreet is phased out", and "Efreet is in the graveyard" are two different states. You also failed to state how many luck counters are on Chance Encounter. In fact, you lied by saying there's at least 10.

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8 months ago  ::  Nov 07, 2012 - 2:34PM #10
SereneChaos
Date Joined: Apr 21, 2010
Posts: 4,092

Nov 7, 2012 -- 2:28PM, Shard_Fenix wrote:

You can pick a number high enough to statistically guarantee that you will get ten wins aroudn the time a Boltzmann Brain appears.




But I can't, that's the problem. No number can guarantee winning 10 flips.

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