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8 months ago ::
Oct 27, 2012 - 5:31PM
#21
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Date Joined:
Jun 12, 2011
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Forest  , Plains  , Selesnya Evangel  , Civic Wayfinder  , Beastmaster Ascension  , Ant Queen  and Silklash Spider  . Do you keep this hand or not?
Depends on the rest of your deck. For my build, I don't have the Ant Queen or the Spider, but let's say you replace that with two 4cmc cards from my build.
So in my case, I would keep the hand, even on my first mulligan, on the play or on the draw. The reason being that T2 I can play the Evangel, and I am fairly confident that by T3 I will either have drawn another land or a 2cmc creature.
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8 months ago ::
Oct 27, 2012 - 5:36PM
#22
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Date Joined:
Jul 13, 2012
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Forest , Plains , Selesnya Evangel , Civic Wayfinder , Beastmaster Ascension , Ant Queen and Silklash Spider . Do you keep this hand or not?
On the draw, for certain I keep it. On the play I think harder about it, but probably still keep. One land of any color in the first 3 turns turns that into a solid hand.
On the other hand, NOT getting that land turns it into a total deadweight, since you can't even use the Evangel to start genning tokens.
But the odds of one land draw in 3 turns is generally ~78% on the draw, ~64% on the play (given that DOTP enforces roughly 40% land counts). So Yeah, I'll take those odds almost any day.
Konokono makes a good point below in that any other 2 CMC creature makes a turn 3 stall livable, so even more in favor of keep.
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8 months ago ::
Oct 27, 2012 - 7:14PM
#23
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Date Joined:
Aug 12, 2012
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8 months ago ::
Oct 27, 2012 - 7:29PM
#24
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I wouldn't keep that hand. If you draw a land as your first 2 draws you're going to be able to fetch the 4th land but it's too risky.
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8 months ago ::
Oct 28, 2012 - 6:13AM
#25
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Date Joined:
Jul 20, 2012
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Wow what did I miss?
I'm not sure. Maybe people were talking trash to you for suggesting that Goblin Gangland could have anything but a nut draw hand 
First and foremost, whether or not you take a mulligan can heavily depend on what deck you are up against.
However, assuming the question was posited as to playing against unknown decks online, I would mulligan the GG hand you suggested (assuming a free mulligan); I think it would start out too slow which you do not want to do with Goblins against any deck.
As for the SS hand in the OP, I would likely keep it on the draw even if you had a free milligan. All you need to do is draw a land and you can drop the Deed which, even if you didn't draw another land would offer you some protection to stall untill you got going.
Also, I probably have an irrational fear of taking a mulligan on a decent hand because it seems like as soon as I give up that 2-3 land with higher cc cards hand, the 1 to no land hands start rolling in until I'm down to 4 cards 
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8 months ago ::
Oct 28, 2012 - 9:55PM
#26
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Date Joined:
Oct 19, 2012
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8 months ago ::
Oct 28, 2012 - 10:42PM
#27
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I was just playing 2HG and my partner kept his opening hand of 5x Plains , Marshal's Anthem  , and Swell of Courage  .  We still won.
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8 months ago ::
Oct 29, 2012 - 11:54AM
#28
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it would depend on the deck but universally if your going first and have two mana in starting hand you should be ok anything under that and ur taking a big risk, also taking a hand with three or four mana is a risk of getting mana flooded which happens alot in this game but its more about how comfortable you are with your deck. like last night i had a hand with 6 mana with a mirror (crosswinds) and i was like "hmmm" lol and finally said "hell il try it" and ended up winning because of the mirror. (its the game i described with the 1v1 aura deck in the another forum thread) :D
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8 months ago ::
Oct 29, 2012 - 5:47PM
#29
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Date Joined:
Aug 11, 2008
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We need a new scenario to debate so here goes: Grinning Malace: Evolving Wilds  Evolving Wilds Evolving Wilds Demigod of Revenge  Ashenmoor Gouger  Vexing Devil  Wrecking Ball  Here's the Problems: 1. You can't play Ashenmoor Gouger until round 4 at the best. 2. Even though you only have 3 Lands in play by turn 3, you have actually removed 6 lands from your deck. This greatly reduces the chances of getting the 4th and 5th that you will need for the Demigod. 3. Playing the Devil on turn 2, you still have no board presence because your opponent will just take 4 damage. 4. Will you even get the land you need to use your removal spell? This is due to the same question asked on #2. Edit: With a deck only running 23 lands - If my math is right, you have slightly more than a 35% chance to draw a land on turn 4. IF you haven't drawn one on turn 1-3. If you did, you have 33% chance of getting land 5. You actually have a higher chance of drawing a land on turn 1 and 2 than you do on turn 3 or 4. (37% and 36% respectively).
Chancellor of the Spires  is one of the worst cards in the deck. With only two of them, you are almost never going to get one in your starting hand. If you do get it in your starting hand, it will just sit there. If you get to cast it, it will get burned immediately. - gombl3r CW is NOT how a mono blue deck should work. -Khronikos If anyone in our little group believes in prayer ... we could use all you can give us. Edit: My name is Mark. It wouldn't be right to pray for the devil. -thedevilwuster
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8 months ago ::
Oct 29, 2012 - 5:50PM
#30
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Sixty4half has it right, above, in that I get to see a detailed thought process. I'd like the thread to be full of posts like that, so I can apply the same line of thinking to my own hands. The whole '3 lands in play, but 6 out of the deck' is not something I'd have considered, but will from now on. Nice.
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