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1 year ago ::
Jan 17, 2012 - 10:28AM
#1
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Date Joined:
Jan 13, 2012
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So yea I know "the answer is 24" ... but here are some interesting plots I made. The x-axis is the number of lands in your 60 card deck. The y-axis is the probability of getting exactly n lands (no more and no less) in your starting hand (7 cards). There is a different plot for each n. So the first plot will show the probability of getting exactly 1 land in your starting hand given anywhere from 1 to 40 lands in your deck. Enjoy. (n=1 and n=2)  (n=3 and n=4)  (n=5 and n=6) 
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1 year ago ::
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:18AM
#2
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While the information is interesting, I think the visualization would be clearer if all of the graphs were combined. That would make it easier to see at a glance the most likely range of opening-hand land for each total land count.
Actually, if you'd be willing to give me the data, I could put them together for you--I have an idea of how to visualize it that I'd like to try. (The formula would also work, and I suppose I could just derive that by myself, but I'm lazy and the data would let me just plot things directly without the need for derivation.)
And so people say to me, "How do I know if a word is real?" You know, anyone who's read a children's book knows that love makes things real. If you love a word, use it! That makes it real. Being in the dictionary is an artificial distinction; it doesn't make the word any more real than any other word. If you love a word, it becomes real.
--Erin McKean, Redefining the Dictionary
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1 year ago ::
Jan 17, 2012 - 12:04PM
#3
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I think you should include plots for 0 and 7 lands, and group them at [0,1], [2,3], [4,5], [6,7]. Sum the probabilities for each of those groups, as the sum of 2 and 3 lands is typically the optimal number to begin with. Also, many people are looking for 4 land within the opening 10 cards (hand + 3 draws), you could probably make graphs showing the optimal number of lands in a deck for N lands within the opening N-1 draws, and do so for N up to 7.
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1 year ago ::
Jan 17, 2012 - 12:22PM
#4
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So yea I know "the answer is 24" ...
Wow...
Who says this?
For many decks this is too much land, for other designs it could even be too little. There is no single "correct" answer to this question.
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1 year ago ::
Jan 17, 2012 - 1:20PM
#5
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Date Joined:
Aug 10, 2005
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So yea I know "the answer is 24" ...
Wow...
Who says this?
For many decks this is too much land, for other designs it could even be too little. There is no single "correct" answer to this question.
While there is no single "correct" answer, some answers (20, 24) are better than others (four, sixty), and any answer is better than no answer. Some control decks will run best with 26 or more lands, and fast aggro can sometimes get by with 22 or even less. But 24 is a good starting point, and actually is the right answer in many situations.
Remember 15 years ago when we all thought a deck should be 20 land, 20 spells and 20 creatures? At least that's how everyone I played with built them. Yeah, we sucked at Magic back then. I might still suck at Magic, but at least I get to cast my spells now...
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1 year ago ::
Jan 17, 2012 - 1:21PM
#6
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Date Joined:
Apr 16, 2009
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So yea I know "the answer is 24" ...
Wow...
Who says this?
For many decks this is too much land, for other designs it could even be too little. There is no single "correct" answer to this question.
It's the generally accepted rule of thumb. Of course if someone knows a bit more about how to tune a deck, they might adjust accordingly, but if someone comes in not knowing a thing, 24 is a safe answer that usually works.
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1 year ago ::
Jan 17, 2012 - 2:06PM
#7
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Date Joined:
Jan 13, 2012
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EDIT: *FIXED* These are the relevant land counts and the probabilities for 3 lands, 4 lands, and 5 lands in starting hand. LEGEND: 3 lands is red, 4 lands is green, 5 lands is blue 
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1 year ago ::
Jan 17, 2012 - 2:46PM
#8
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Date Joined:
Jan 13, 2012
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The following is the same graph, but for the first 10 draws rather than first 7 (your starting hand). Once again 3 lands=red, 4 lands=green, 5 lands=blue, 6 lands=orange So for instance from the picture we see that with 27 lands (in a 60 card deck) the probability of getting 5 lands in the first 10 draws is nearly the same as getting 4 lands in the first 10 draws. Also with 27 lands, the probability of getting 6 lands in the first 10 draws is the nearly the same as the probability of getting 3 lands.  It is interesting to me how nice 24 lands looks here.
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1 year ago ::
Jan 17, 2012 - 3:05PM
#9
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Date Joined:
Jan 13, 2012
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And for the same for the first 11 draws
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1 year ago ::
Jan 17, 2012 - 6:14PM
#10
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Date Joined:
Sep 22, 2008
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It's just too hard to see. Make lines and most importantly big font and titles so we can see what we are looking at, I can barely see the 15-20-25-30 and I cant really see the Y axis.
The dots are also very tiny and hard to distinguish, a line even if it represent false data (like there's no chance to have 18.5 land) will be better in the end. Also a light grey background grid is always fun
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