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Funniest hand I ever kept:  RoE draft UB control with Keening Stone for a finisher.  I'm playing against a slow 3 color deck that I took about 35 minutes to grind out in game one.  My hand is Island , Island , Island , Swamp , Swamp , Swamp , See Beyond on the draw.  I know he can't kill me quickly, and my deck is REALLY mana hungry, so I keep it.  Turn one my opponent, “Inquisition of Kozilek you.” and got the See Beyond.  We didn't finish game two, but nothing I saw out of the other deck or player convinced me they were capable of beating me.

Firstly, interesting article.  What I hate is when you have a 50:50 hand and you chose to Mulligan and the new hand is even worse.

In relation to CricketHunter's hand, I would always Mulligan this.  You have no threats on the board and can only respond to two threats an opponent plays.  Also you normally don't want to Lightning bolt early creatures as you want to save them for real threats.

Not sure if I understood the advantage for 18 lands over 17 lands.  Article says when you use 18, you'll remember when you get mana flooded and lose, but then went on to say if you use 17, you'll remember when you got manascrewed and lost. I don't see a case for one over the other.  I myself prefer 17.

@cricketHunter

I would have actually kept the hand.  First off, because you have 5 lands in your hand the odds of you drawing a spell are larger.  While there is a chance of you drawing a land, it is not that great to start off with.  Also, you have a fair number of high cost spells and cards with a fire-breathing effect so having more mountains is good.  

Falcon_Uk is right that you don't have any creatures in your opening hand, and having to use the two Lightning Bolts early is not a desirable situation.  However, UB decks I have faced in the past have never put on too much early game pressure to even warrant using the bolts on the first two creatures that come out.  Nothing says that you HAVE to destroy the first two creatures that come out.  Taking some early damage is not going to kill you.  Hurt you, yes, but not kill you.  Yes, if you don't draw any creatures than you will eventually die or will need to use the bolts on the creatures that have been damaging you for the first few turns.  Also, you have additional burn in the deck.  Not as efficient as bolt but still there.

Personally I would keep the hand.  There might be a few times that I would mulligan but having the ability of answering some early pressure if you need to until you draw a creature makes the hand worth keeping.  You also have the necessary lands to play all but one of your spells.

Aug 17, 2010 -- 5:29AM, Falcon_Uk wrote:

Aug 17, 2010 -- 5:07AM, GreenBuster wrote:

@cricketHunter

However, UB decks I have faced in the past have never put on too much early game pressure to even warrant using the bolts on the first two creatures that come out.

I find UB decks can be very aggro especially with the amount of evasion they play.  I have seen (and played) decks that go:

Turn 1 - Elite Vanguard
Turn 2 - Pegasus/Hawk/Owl
Turn 3 - Wild Griffin/Cloud Elemental
Turn 4 - Assualt Griffin/Azure Drake etc

Uh, dude, UB means Blue and Black. Not Blue and White. That's UW.

Black is somewhat less agressive than White in M11, although it can be in some games with Child of Night and Barony Vampire . That said, you other points are good.