Theros Championships

6 posts / 0 new
Last post

I just want to say that I am pleasantly surprised by the Theros championships. With release events it felt like you were taking away every decent event for players that don't have 10+ hours to spend on a tournament in one sitting, but this does feel like it gives something back to competitive players.



I overall like the changes, but I have two questions (and one is a complaint, because well, you know, it is MTGO afterall):

  1. Why isn't the standard challenge Hero's Path Standard? It just seems like it would be really appropriate.
  2. Why is the limited championship phantom? The set championships were the one place phantom hadn't touched, and it makes me sad to see that included now as well.

Myths of Theros: Part 1, Part 2, Born of the Gods Myths

Beta Client, "Shiny", V4.0 tutorial

Momir Basic Primer

I strongly suspect that the reason why the format was not changed to phantom before is that there was no comparative constructed event. The rationale for changing MOCS limited events to phantom was that the non-phantom nature made them more appealing than the constructed ones. While I'm usually pretty cynical about Wizards motives when they downgrade events, I think this one actually was justified. Under the old system limited MOCS had way higher attendance than constructed and, to make matters worse, a substantial number of players would just get their six free cracked packs and drop. Some folks didn't even bother to log in. While there will always be a couple of people who register for the event and then no-show it really starts to affect the integrity of the event when it happens in large numbers. Now that there is a constructed championships as well as a limited one, wizards can apply the same rationale to turning the limited side phantom.


As far as Hero's Path Standard goes I have no clue other than possibly that the format is not thoroughly tested. I very much doubt that WotC spent enough manpower resources to rigorously test Hero's Path constructed environments. The fact that a couple of the avatars are so obviously superior to the others lends credence to this suspicion imo.

Has anyone compared the Ev of the qualifier events to des/PEs? 


Also so I tried to start this tread a day ago... But can't find the "start new thread" button on the forums now

Calavera on MTGO I collect Zendikar Foil Basic lands. Trade me yours! Things that I want to see changed on MTGO: 1: 64 man drafts added to rotation of Events. 2: Visual/Audible Notification of disconnect, deckbuild/afk time expiring and round starts. 3: Prize Payouts as close to draft sets as possible. 4: Rotate Classic draft queues monthly! 5: MOCS level events for Classic/Pauper 6: Power 9! 7: Award Promo Cards for Constructed PEs (esp for Legacy/Classic) 8: Program Split option back in! 9: Set Favorite version in deck editor (i.e. always use x swamp) 10: Better sorting of gold cards in deck editor. 11: Bring leagues Back!

EV is good enough, -$4,5 when boosters are$4 or -$3.375 when boosters are $3, for the average player.

Also the prize payout is very topheavy, so if you're winning more than 50% on average your EV goes up drastically. At 60% you already have positive EV of around $4, which is the best in any limited event as far as I know (better than draft and release events at least).

I did the EV numbers.


First the limited championship - prizes are 1000 boosters (Secondary market value of USD 3000 at the time of the event; there will be a large excess of Theros boosters in circulation at the time so their value will be low). 5 foil sets - USD 1500 by historical trends. 7 regular sets - USD 700. Total USD 5200 regardless of the number of qualifiers (I'd expect there will be close to the 676 maximum, however, as the championship is a fairly good event).


For this reason I will consider a ticket to this event to be worth USD 8.




Secondly, the qualifiers.


Per 32 players you have 1 5-0, 5 4-1s and 10 3-2s.


That's 6 championship qualifications and 156 boosters. Again due to timing (at a very low point in secondary market values of T boosters), that's USD 48 worth of qualifications, and USD 468 in packs, for a total prize pool of USD 516 per 32 players, or USD 16.125 per player.


Finally there's the 'cracked pack value' of the event, which is likely around USD 1.20 per pack or USD 7.20 per player.



So the prize and card EV is USD 23.325 if you are a coinflip in every match, for an average entertainment cost of USD 6.675 per tournament. That's a lot cheaper than a trip to the cinema.



If sealed Theros boosters are higher on the secondary market than 3 tickets at the time of the championship, then that adds a significant amount to the EV. Likewise, if the average card value of a cracked booster is higher than USD 1.20, this will also increase the EV. 

Sign In to post comments