When do you expect 4.5 to come?

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Although D&D 5 is coming soon.

Notebooks are filling with thoughts as we speak.
3.5 was being worked on and fervently denied since 3.0 came out. 4e was being worked on and fervently denied since 3.5 came out. Therefore, 4.5e is in the works right now, and will be fervently denied for a year or two. :P
This new forum is terrible. Try again Wizards.
Royal prediction: no 4.5, but 5e sometime between 6 and 9 years from now, probably closer to the 6 end.
There won't be a 4.5, or even a 5, for a long while. They have changed their business model for the new edition. Let me explain:

In the old business model, 3-3.5, WotC wrote books, and sold them to players. They had to balance filling the market with books, the timing of the books, and the desire of players to purchase such books. Each book was around $30, and took months to produce. They had to produce many books to make money.

In the new system, 4.0, WotC writes 3 books for each setting (or some other small number). Many people will want these books, and pay $30 for them. Once everyone has the books, instead of going to the old business model, they will convince each player to pay $20 per month to access DDI. Making a few books provides the core rules and thrusts the players directly into their real profit source, DDI, which the players will need to get new rules, etc.


So, a comparison of profits to justify my argument:

In the old system, WotC produced the three core books, and a new book a month (sometimes two).

In the new system, to be more successful with DDI, which costs half the price of a book (or slightly more), they only have to have twice as many DDI subscribers as people buying the supplemental materials. I think they can definitely achieve this. This is because they are still producing the same number of core books. Adventures never made money, so we need not concern ourselves with them.

Besides that, the selling price of the books mostly went to the distributors and retailers of the books, and not WotC. From DDI, WotC gets all the money (minus internet fees, etc.). This likely makes it so that WotC only needs as many DDI subscribers (not twice as many) as people who were previously buying supplemental books, or fewer (a 50% reduction from the previous paragraph). With the additional features of DDI, besides just new content, they will definitely get more subscribers than people who were buying supplemental books. This means more money for WotC.


So, in conclusion:

Don't expect a 5th edition until the subscriptions to DDI start to die off, and people stop renewing. Be assured that DDI is where most of their profit will be, and the books will only be a supplement to attract new users and give users a basis with which to use DDI. DDI is the future, and is where the money is.
You're assuming that enough people will buy into DDI to subscribe and that they see enough content to make their subscription worthwhile and sustainable for the price. If that doesn't happen then the books are a comin'
Royal prediction: no 4.5, but 5e sometime between 6 and 9 years from now, probably closer to the 6 end.

I predict 7. Seven years is regarded as the optimum lifespan for a band, the average run of a successful TV series, and of course there's the infamous "seven year itch". It is a decent length of time between game editions. There is nothing "magical" or "lucky" about it, but it is a number that seems to resonate with humans in regards to renewal and level of interest, our fascination bell-curve if you will.
if I see a 4.5/5E in less than 7-8 years, I will have to seriously consider stopping D&D and finding another hobby.
You know, on the other side of this whole "new editions coming too soon" dilemma, I can think of quite a few great RPGs, all of which are far younger than D&D, that have gone through anywhere between 3-6 editions since their inceptions in the 80s and 90s.
This new forum is terrible. Try again Wizards.
Apparently narrative combat has gone by the way-side in 4E what with miniatures being required for play.

OK, could somebody, ANYBODY, explain how miniatures, as opposed to erasers, pennies, M&M's, etc, are necessary?

The real and legit complaint is that 4e requires you to keep track of where everybody is.
While minis are the easiest and most attractive way of doing it, they are not the only way.

What do you mean by narrative combat anyway?
By that, I mean that I understand what the words mean, but I wonder what exactly you mean by it. Do you mean turning over control of the battlefield to the players and letting them tell you where things are to afford them maximum storytelling potential?
(if you are that's cool, what ever works for you , I'm just trying to figure out what your beef is )


Oh yeah, topic.

No, I doubt we'll see a 4.5, just a slow introduction of new material through the new core books. Of course the more cynical among you will [probably call the yearly Core books 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, etc.
I'd also like to add that the only version of D&D that wasn't written with the use of miniatures SPECIFICALLY in mind, arguably, was 2e. People tend to forget that D&D started as a miniatures wargame.
This new forum is terrible. Try again Wizards.
There won't be a 4.5, or even a 5, for a long while. They have changed their business model for the new edition. Let me explain:

In the old business model, 3-3.5, WotC wrote books, and sold them to players. They had to balance filling the market with books, the timing of the books, and the desire of players to purchase such books. Each book was around $30, and took months to produce. They had to produce many books to make money.

In the new system, 4.0, WotC writes 3 books for each setting (or some other small number). Many people will want these books, and pay $30 for them. Once everyone has the books, instead of going to the old business model, they will convince each player to pay $20 per month to access DDI. Making a few books provides the core rules and thrusts the players directly into their real profit source, DDI, which the players will need to get new rules, etc.


So, a comparison of profits to justify my argument:

In the old system, WotC produced the three core books, and a new book a month (sometimes two).

In the new system, to be more successful with DDI, which costs half the price of a book (or slightly more), they only have to have twice as many DDI subscribers as people buying the supplemental materials. I think they can definitely achieve this. This is because they are still producing the same number of core books. Adventures never made money, so we need not concern ourselves with them.

Besides that, the selling price of the books mostly went to the distributors and retailers of the books, and not WotC. From DDI, WotC gets all the money (minus internet fees, etc.). This likely makes it so that WotC only needs as many DDI subscribers (not twice as many) as people who were previously buying supplemental books, or fewer (a 50% reduction from the previous paragraph). With the additional features of DDI, besides just new content, they will definitely get more subscribers than people who were buying supplemental books. This means more money for WotC.


So, in conclusion:

Don't expect a 5th edition until the subscriptions to DDI start to die off, and people stop renewing. Be assured that DDI is where most of their profit will be, and the books will only be a supplement to attract new users and give users a basis with which to use DDI. DDI is the future, and is where the money is.

One look at their lineup pretty much invalidates this. They're still doing the "book a month" or more for 4E.
NEVAR! I remember multiple designers saying that 4.5e will not happen, one going as far as to say something to the effect that he would actually go postal before he allowed it to happen.

Now, I can't say that I expect a terribly long lifespan for 4e, but I do certainly hope it lasts longer than 3/3.5e.
Let your voice be heard! Tell WotC to Publish D&D 4e under the OGL!
I pledge my loyalty to the faction that says there won't be another .5 edition.

Here's my reasons.
1> They're tired of the grief they've gotten over 3.5, and aren't looking to suffer that again.
2> They've already said that they plan to release a new PHB and DMG EVERY YEAR FOR THE LIFE OF 4e. Now, in plain english, that means that they can update rules annually while selling you a new $35 book, and you'll buy it.
In idiot speak, for those who can't follow the above, "LolZ, n0 4.5 == KACHING KACHING $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ BLING-BLING FO' SHIZZLE!!!"


There won't be a 4.5
2009 will see PHB2 with updated rules
2010 will see PHB3 with updated rules
2011 will see PHB4 with updated rules
2012 will see PHB5 with updated rules
2013 will see PHB6 with updated rules
2014 will see PHB7 with updated rules
2015 will see PHB8 with updated rules
2016 will see PHB9 with updated rules
2017 will see PHB10 with updated rules
2018 will see D&D 5th Edition, and the commencerate whining.
Brew'N Games: A Homebrewing Blog, Both Games and Beer. "The Sky is Falling Like a Sock of Cocaine in the Ministry of Information..." - Man Man, Black Mission Goggles
Except some of us have played 4E/KotS without minis and it works fine. Minis are not needed, just going without them limits how players see a few of the tactical choices their characters have. That is all has said about it, and it is true.
I couldn't agree more. Apparently narrative combat has gone by the way-side in 4E what with miniatures being required for play. Has anyone actually tried a narrative combat with the new 4E rules? And just so I am clear, its not the fact that I don't have all these new minis or any minis at all. I know you can use other things like chess pieces etc. The truth is, I and my group don't want to use minis AT ALL. I know that sounds foreign to some people, but I actually prefer it that way. Minis take too much time and the game ends up feeling like Hero Quest instead of D&D.

Actually aside from the rogue's powers, I don't see anything more complicated then multiplying by 5. And rogue's powers can easily be adjudicated by the DM anyway, sooo I don't see them as necessary just a whole lot more assumed than in 3.X, which is more like 1E you know with the 3" swing angles. At least now they have uniform size for squares.
Back on topic, don't think there will be a 4.5 at all. Like another poster said, it will be PH2, DMG2, etc with DDI filling in the void until 5E.

I tend to agree with that, I mean it will be there liked Unearthed Arcana and those last 5-10 adventures in 1e, and skills and powers but it won't be an across the board obviousness.
So, when 5th comes around 8 years from now, you'll just quit? That's...silly.

no its called wont give them my money.


besides may not even be breathing in that amount of time, after all we are not promised tomorrow are we?
a mask everyone has at least two of, one they wear in public and another they wear in private.....
...

The topic echoes my very first thought when 4e was announced, and yes, it is a living game. So Ill dare say that we´ll see a 5th, 6th and 7th edition. Along with their respective ¨dotfive¨ versions -if it is good enought for their bussines agenda- but anyways, the 3.5 playmore propaganda was very very cool and newgamers deserve new material, not only the good old classics for ourselves (you oldschool Ad&D gamers...)

- nuff said!
NEVAR! I remember multiple designers saying that 4.5e will not happen,

That means nothing, because those same designers also fervently denied a 4th edition, and look where we are now.
This new forum is terrible. Try again Wizards.
I couldn't agree more. Apparently narrative combat has gone by the way-side in 4E what with miniatures being required for play. Has anyone actually tried a narrative combat with the new 4E rules? And just so I am clear, its not the fact that I don't have all these new minis or any minis at all. I know you can use other things like chess pieces etc. The truth is, I and my group don't want to use minis AT ALL. I know that sounds foreign to some people, but I actually prefer it that way. Minis take too much time and the game ends up feeling like Hero Quest instead of D&D.

Back on topic, don't think there will be a 4.5 at all. Like another poster said, it will be PH2, DMG2, etc with DDI filling in the void until 5E.

Emphasis mine, people keep saying this and everyone from Wotc staff to other posters keep refuting it, yet it still gets repeated.

On topic, I see 4E going the distance, what with the constant addition of new power sources, classes and powers and the controlled release of campaign settings, at least 2018 before 5E is needed.

Bel
Originally Posted by WotC_RichBaker In related news, I'm afraid I'm going to have to confiscate your 3.5 rulebooks, and force you to convert to the new edition. Where do you live?
no its called wont give them my money.

Ok, why?
Ok, why?

For pretty much the same reason as why you would try to stop the burglar getting away with your t.v., I'm guessing. Exploitation isn't fun.
For pretty much the same reason as why you would try to stop the burglar getting away with your t.v., I'm guessing. Exploitation isn't fun.

A game company printing new editions every 7-10 years isn't exploitation. Heck, it's not exploitation if they print a new editon every year,for that matter.
There's no reason to keep buying new editions if you're perfectly happy with the one you have and have other people to play with who can say the same. Likewise, there's no reason to keep buying new editions if you don't really play the game much anymore. Either way, not everybody's made of money.

It just so happens that I do have people to play with, but I'm not perfectly happy with the previous editions, and I think I'll be happier with 4e, and I have enough money to spare for the core books, so it makes sense for me to buy them.

That's all. I'm not brainwashed for being willing to buy into the new edition, and other people aren't being overly bitter just because they decide it's not worth it for them.

The company does need to keep making new books to keep in business and keep their product fresh and interesting, and the flaws in a system become more and more apparant over time, and these two things together mean there will be new editions in the future. I don't expect another '.5' edition. I think they learned from the last time that if there's enough wrong to necessitate a .5, it's probably time to consider a whole new edition.


So 4.5? Probably not. But 5e? Virtually guaranteed, and could show up anytime between 4 and 12 years from now, depending on how long it takes for WotC to go through useful material and on how long it takes for whatever inherent bugs are in the 4e system to manifest and grow more irritating. My royal prediction is something like 6 years, as I think they'll be out of material for PHBs that people actually want around PHB5. At that point I think they'll be making things up that people don't want, or don't think is cool, and sales for splats will wane.
For pretty much the same reason as why you would try to stop the burglar getting away with your t.v., I'm guessing. Exploitation isn't fun.

I think you misunderstand the meaning of the words "burglar" and "exploitation"…and perhaps "fun".
For pretty much the same reason as why you would try to stop the burglar getting away with your t.v., I'm guessing. Exploitation isn't fun.

Until a WoTC employee enters your house and makes you play a game at gunpoint, you sir need to shut it.
Until a WoTC employee enters your house and makes you play a game at gunpoint, you sir need to shut it.

Richard Baker showed up at my gaming night with a large knife, and told us that if we ever played a White Wolf game again he'd cut us. True story. Really.


What?

:P
Brew'N Games: A Homebrewing Blog, Both Games and Beer. "The Sky is Falling Like a Sock of Cocaine in the Ministry of Information..." - Man Man, Black Mission Goggles
Somewhere between 2011 and 2013 and if its as much an improvement over 4E that 3.5 was over 3.0 I will buy it
4.5 will come out just as everyone who will go into 4th has already invested in it. then they will release 4.5. Best to wait a year and not waste the money.
Just something I thought I'd point out (or concur with, as others have mentioned it):

D&D 3.5e is not to be confused with the AD&D Unearthed Arcana (or, I would guess, the AD&D 2e Skills and Powers, although I could be mistaken as I skipped 2e). 1eUA was an incremental upgrade and did not invalidate the existing rules. So do most such supplements.

Othe other hand, 3.5e was a partial replacement of 3.0e. It is partially backward compatible, but in many cases requires the refactoring of existing PCs, NPCs and monsters. This was not a rule supplement, it was a rule replacement. You could not have a 3.0 ranger and a 3.5 ranger in the same game. The "name" 3.5 was chosen because a) it was too early for 4e and b) it was only a partial replacement of the rules (a lot of things did not change, just enough to warrant a new set of books).

That's two different kinds of crunch: add-ons and replacements.

Some suggest that if this kind of rule replacement ever becomes necessary before the market is ready for 5e, that it could (or should) be done via the release of PHB2+, DMG2+, or worse, DDI.

Stop, and think for a moment about the kind of unmanageable mess that would create. You would have current and obsolete tidbits of rules spread around your entire D&D library.

For example, when I want to use a monster from MM2 or Fiend Folio, I have to go to that update document and see how it was modified for 3.5e. It's a hassle, but it's pretty straightforward. It's the same process for everything pre-3.5e: if it changed, it has an entry in that document. How's that gonna work if the rule replacements are arbitrarily spread over time and many books AND online?

A few rule replacement and revisions along the way is fine, but there is a point where it risks turning the rules into an unmanageable bloated morass. I wish the yearly core books will contain add-ons, but as few as possible replacements.

I did not jump with joy when 3.5e was announced and released. But I understood the rationale, and I agreed that it was the most convenient way to do it for everyone involved. New sales for WotC, and for us, better rules and organization.

I hope 4.5e is not needed, but if it is, I hope they do it as they did with 3.5e. As for a release date, if it happens, summer 2011 would be my guess. Past that time, it will be an indication that the core of 4e is not broken enough to justify it, and the next overhaul will be 5e, by 2016.
Sebby
"I'm a bonster. Rawr!"
There will never be a version 4.5E.

However 4E-beta, followed by 4E-delta (insert actual greek characters) will be out in 2010 and 2012, respectively.
I'd also like to add that the only version of D&D that wasn't written with the use of miniatures SPECIFICALLY in mind, arguably, was 2e. People tend to forget that D&D started as a miniatures wargame.

Chainmail started as a miniatures wargmae. D&D was created as a roleplaying game.
Chainmail started as a miniatures wargmae. D&D was created as a roleplaying game.

A roleplaying game that relied heavily on the use of counters, be them miniatures or otherwise, in combat as a placement tool.
This new forum is terrible. Try again Wizards.
Wow the books haven't even hit the shelf yet and already people are wondering about 4.5....

I could of sworn I heard that there won't be a need for a 4.5....

because of the online resources they can make the changes as needed...and if I remember one of the 4th Ed interviews from Gen Con 2007...one of the Designers even said that there won't be a revised edition of 4th...

of course I could of imagined it...I mean the Gamer Zero Podcasts could of been product of my imagination and everybody is playing along with me and with my Delusions..:coolcthul
Wow the books haven't even hit the shelf yet and already people are wondering about 4.5....

I could of sworn I heard that there won't be a need for a 4.5....

because of the online resources they can make the changes as needed...and if I remember one of the 4th Ed interviews from Gen Con 2007...one of the Designers even said that there won't be a revised edition of 4th...

of course I could of imagined it...I mean the Gamer Zero Podcasts could of been product of my imagination and everybody is playing along with me and with my Delusions..:coolcthul

Online resources won't change the text printed in books, they'd have to print new books for that. Plus, these are also the same designers who fervently denied there would be a 4th edition, take their word with a grain of salt.
This new forum is terrible. Try again Wizards.
I could of sworn I heard that there won't be a need for a 4.5....

because of the online resources they can make the changes as needed...

The problem is no matter what WotC wants, some people will prefer printed books, to online documentation.

How many people actualy read the Windows Help files?

So any changes will need to be printed in order to get revenue from those people who want printed material.

Technically I would say that 4.1th edition will be when the PHBII, DMGII, and MMII comes out, and keep incrementing with each additional "core" book.
In the new system, to be more successful with DDI, which costs half the price of a book (or slightly more),

Wait, I thought DDI was only going to cost about 10 dollars. . .
I really hope tat they doon't Make eh 4.5e. cuse I has nuw moore pesos! :D
That means nothing, because those same designers also fervently denied a 4th edition, and look where we are now.

Well of course they did, they were underneath Non-Disclosure Agreements. Would you risk your career (not to mention a lawsuit) for a game?

Besides, it's not in anyone's interest for WotC to have said, 1 January 2004, "Oh yeah, we started designing a new edition of D&D today! We know we just released 3.5E, but you don't need to bother with it, since we'll you'll just be buying the new 4E books four years from now!" Lots of people really wouldn't have bothered buying anything, and the industry would likely have tanked; many game stores would've gone broke, many WotC employees would be out of a job, and lots of gamers would've been without official support for their favourite game.

In short, what did you seriously expect? It's common sense that a game company will produce games, and it's reasonable to assume that WotC is already 'working on' (if not actually actively developing) a future edition of D&D. We shouldn't necessarily expect it anytime soon though.
4.5 will come out just as everyone who will go into 4th has already invested in it. then they will release 4.5. Best to wait a year and not waste the money.

...You're kidding, right?