However, that doesn't mean that we can ignore the fact that Welkin Guide is still a five-mana 2/2.
Well that pack only has 3 real options. Stinger, Executioners Capsule and Blood Cultist. The stinger is better at the same job the Cultist is hoping for though so we can take that out right now. In the end I take the stinger because there is no way to avoid passing a LOT of black from that pack and its likely the best card anyway.
A LOT of black ??? Glaze Fiend, Skeletal Kathari and Shore Snapper aren't exactly signals if you ask me, especially at second pick... If you pick the Executionner's Capsule, the only black signal you're sending is Blood Cultist, and it's not a too strong one. It still is something to consider since that pack as a whole is very weak, but I wouldn't hesitate much over that and take the capsule ASAP. Bant Charm is too overcommiting a first pick even if it's better than the capsule when you do have the colors for it.
All that you have to do is keep the game close until you hit seven mana and you're going to win.
What do you take?
With inexperienced drafters at the table I'm expecting lots of people in Naya and underdrafted Grixis and Esper.
Therefore: Executioner's Capsule
Any flier with power greater than 3 is extremely hard to kill.
Seriously...No one here would take the Cathartic Adept? Really?
Drop that dude on turn one and you're just a quick 33 turns away from victory.
Bant Charm. I don't know/can't remember if i raised this last week but drafts are expensive, picking up cards that you could sell in order for more boosters is always great whihc is why I would have taken the Cruel ultimatum.
That's, uhh... not the point of this exercise. And that'd just make you a rare-drafting jerk. The point is to make you a better player when it comes to drafts.
...in the unlikely event that you can cast it from only seven sources. And that's why it's the wrong pick. (Or if it isn't, you should have made some mention of the issue given the discussion in the forums!)