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Pathetic.

Most people expect more than a one-word feedback, so I'll elaborate a bit.
Most dragons are worth between 8k and 23k xp, which means the white dragon (8,750 xp) is considered a touch encounter for a group of 4 lvl8 PCs, and a red dragon (23,380 xp) is considered a tough encounter for a group of 4 lvl11 or lvl12 PCs (closer to lvl12, but not quite).
Let's compare the white and the red.

White first.
AC: 15, as an expected lvl8 encounter. Seriously?
Assume a lvl8 fighter or rogue with an 18 in their attack score: +6 atk. Factor in a bless or prayer effect and we are at +7 (I'm not considering a magical weapon, since these are no longer required, or any other feat/spell effect like haste). 65% chance to hit.

Average fighter/rogue damage (assume a 1d8 one-handed weapon): 4.5 (d8) + 4*3.5 (4d6 martial dice) + 4 (ability) + 5 (martial damage bonus) = 27.5 (28.5 if we have prayer instead of bless), 45.5 on a critical. 27.5*0.60 + 45.5*0.05 = 18.775 average dpr.

Add to that 9.6 more from lance of faith (14*0.6 + 24*0.05, assuming an equal atk bonus), and ignore the wizard since his at-will (ray of frost) is useless. We get a sustained 18.775 (ftr) + 18.775 (rog) + 9.6 (clr) = 47.15 damage each round, which should be considered a minimum. Since this is expected to be a boss fight, we should assume that the wizard will opt to cast one of his daily spells (not just cantrips). A lvl3 magic missile is worth <6d4+12> = 27 damage, total per round = 47.15 + 27 = 64.15 damage.

So the bossey white dragon apparently goes down in two rounds, as the above extremely conservative calculations seem to indicate. Marvelous, as Inspector Callahan would say. By comparison, how much damage does the dragon deal during a round?

- Against the AC 18 fighter (shield + some armor): The dragon is listed as having a +7 atk bonus, so its a 50% to hit. Assuming a claw-claw-bite multiattack, we have bite: 0.45*20 + 0.05*30 = 10.5, claw: 0.45*10.5 + 0.05*14 = 5.425, multiattack total = 2*5.425 + 10.5 = 21.35

Now it can be higher against characters with an AC of less than 18 (wizard), but still is less than half of what the party (sans wizard) will deal the dragon. Frightful presence is a factor that can influence the fight in favor of the dragon heavily, so much so in fact, that in can be described as a save-or-die effect. A prepared party shouldn't have much difficulty dealing with it, but it can still be a problem.
The breath weapon is a joke. 33% recharge, for a single-action attack dealing 18 damage on average (and the rogue already has uncanny dodge and evasion). The cone makes it slightly more appealing, but still, seems inadequate.

Red time
Assume a group of four lvl11 PCs
AC: 15 (...)
A lvl11 fighter or rogue, with 18 attack score, buffed with prayer and haste (this is lvl11): +7 to-hit (65%), 1d8 + 5 (avg 9.5, crit 13, avg per attack 0.6*9.5 + 0.05*13 = 6.35).
The fighter used combat surge, to double his 6d6 martial dice.
Average damage for the first round for the fighter: 6.35 [1st attack] + 6.35 [hasted attack] + 6.35 [combat surge attack] = 19.05
Now we need to figure martial dice and martial damage bonus. Obviously, the player will spend them on the first attack that hits, so their chance of being applied is equal to the chance to score at least one success when making three trials and each one has a p = 0.65 chance of success (Bernoulli trials), which equates to 95.7125% This means that the contribution to the total damage for the round is 0.957125*(12*3.5 + 10) = 49.7705.
Total fighter damage = 68.8205.

The rogue gets only a single attack (not hasted), so we have 4.5 (d8)+5+6*3.5 (6d6)+10 (bonus) = 40.5 normal, 63.5 crit.
Thus, the rogue's damage is 0.6*40.5 + 0.05*63.5 = 27.475.

The cleric casts inflict critical wounds. Assume his magic attack bonus is also +7. The spell's damage is 0.6*31.5 (normal hit, average of 7d8) + 0.35*0.5*31.5 (miss, half damage) + 0.05*56 (crit) = 27.2125.

Wizard: lvl6 magic missile beats all. <12d4 24=""> = 54.

Sum of average expected party damage for one round: 68.8205 + 27.475 + 27.2125 + 54 = 177.508. Dead red dragon.

OK, so again frightful presence was not accounted for. Dragon damage against an AC 19 fighter is (again assuming claw-claw-bite multiattack) as follows:
At +7 to-hit, the dragon has a 45% chance of success. A claw deals 0.4*20.5 + 0.05*31 = 9.75 on average, while the bite deals 0.4*33 + 0.05*55 = 15.95. Grand total per multiattack = 2*9.75 + 15.95 = 35.45.

The dragon's breath weapon deals 29.5 damage on average on a failed save.

OK, let's review and summarize.
Damage-wise, a dragon is hardly a nuisance for a party for which it is supposed to be a tough encounter. Of course, the dragon's frightful presence cannot be reliably and easily factored in, as there are too many parameters involved here (how many party members will initially fail the save? How many will make their saves in the second or subsequent rounds? Will the dragon have time to kill party members one by one before the group recovers? What is the chance for each individual party member to succeed on their saves?)
To accurately model frightful presence requires a Monte Carlo simulation, which should be embedded in a simulation of the entire combat.
Breath weapons are next to useless. They recharge on average as fast as they did in 3.5E, will be used against PCs having on average about as many hit points as they had in 3.5E, yet the breath weapons deal about one-third of the damage they dealt in 3.5E. Dragons are famous for their intelligence and cunning. Why would a dragon ever use its (sub-optimal) breath weapon in combat? Cone-shaped breath weapons would be useful against a tight group, but line-shaped ones are now much harder to employ effectively and justify spending the dragon's action on that.

Also, the above calculations are extremely conservative of party resources employed. I did not include additional spell buffs (which would be the normal if a group was knowingly marching against a dragon), magic weapons (almost certainly to be possessed by party members, especially at the lvl11 encounter), use of more powerful damaging spells, feats, or maneuvers. I also did not include a dragon's custom options. The red's Dominate can make a huge difference (especially since the intelligent red will attempt to dominate the fighter), the white's freezing fog not so. The other dragons' abilities fall somewhere in between.

I can understand the need to keep even the most legendary of all monsters simple. However, sometimes both party and DM expect an epic encounter, and are willing to go the extra mile to prepare or read through a lot of abilities. As it stands, a low-level dragon encounter might be acceptable, but even the most powerful dragon (red) pales against PCs after 15th level.

Personally, I'd go the class route to somewhat alleviate the issue. Have each dragon gain a few class levels. Wizard seems the obvious choice, although personally I'd prefer the sorcerer (let's see it released first, though). Fighter is the next best, and rogue follows after. Even two or three levels up the dragon's threat significantly. A shield or mage armor spell effectively solves the low AC issue, and color spray is far better than any breath weapon. Mirror image makes the players think twice before going up against a dragon again, and phantasmal force or web are sound tactical options.
Likewise, the ability to parry attacks, or have a maneuver or two and some martial damage dice are very handy options. I still have no working solution as to how a monster's xp valu scales when it acquires class levels...
In the long run however, breath weapons need to have their damage increased. Dragons also need more hit points imo, or perhaps give them the ability to reduce all weapon damage by some amount (kinda like a passive parry due to their thick hides and hard scales). Additional rolls do slow the game down, but resistance seems like too much.
Mental stats on dragons need a review. I assume the dragons listed in Bestiary are at least adults. Int and Wis are low across the board, Cha only marginally better. 20's the cap, I get it, but Int 07 for an adult white? Int/Wis 11 for an adult (perhaps older) red? The most legendary schemers, with plans spanning decades, an extensive network of associates, allies, and agents, has an Int of 11?? And speaks only two languages???

Errata found in the process:
The white's breath damage is listed as 25 (4d6+4). The average of 4d6+4 is 18, where does the 25 come from?
The red's atk bonus equals its Str modifier. The white's equals its Str modifier +1. The black's equals its Str modifier +3. I guess consistency was thrown out somewhere along the way?

Request to Devs: Plz break down monster stats as analytically as possible, e.g. AC 15 (+2 Dex, +1 shield, 12 scale armor).
Request to Devs #2: Dragons need more damaging breath weapons and higher mental stats - and AC.
Request to Devs #3: All monsters should have a skill die and training in some skills. Since it's no longer necessary to track a different gauge for each skill, listing a few skills to which each monster is trained or adept, should not be a hard task. (Nonintelligent or mindless monsters are exempt, of course).

And after the wall of text, I await comments...

Dec 27, 2012 -- 8:08AM, AaronOfBarbaria wrote:

Dragon breath in some of the older editions (including 3.5) was off the rails dangerous, and needed to be scaled back. The damage of the breath weapon of the white (18 average, 28 max) compared to the HP a wizard or thief would have (34 +those gained from constitution) is actually pretty seriously scary... right where it should be in my opinion, rather than so high as to kill any character that didn't save as it once was.

Many considered that a feature, not a bug. I would want the breath weapon damage of a 10th level dragon to be 10d6, because that's enought to potentially kill a character who failed the saving throw (depending on the HP rolls and Damage rolls). Clerics and Fighters would have slightly higher survivablity, but not much. As it is, a dragon would have to breath twice, getting high rolls on both, and with the character failing the save on both, for it to actually threaten to kill anyone. Considering that the Breath Weapon will be used realistically only once, maybe twice, per combat, it needs to be more lethal.

All of the above assumes you want Dragons to be the iconic badass the game is named after.

I don't think most of the stuff suggested in the OP is a good idea, but that is a surprisingly short period of time for something to go down when it is supposed to be a "tough" encounter (for the white dragon anyway; the red dragon has dominate and that is going to massively change the layout of the fight compared to what was put forward in the OP).

The short fight length might be OK, but if that's intended I think it might be a good idea to re-examine the values on recharge dice.  They look to be about the same as they were in 4e, but a typical encounter in 4e lasted a longer number of rounds.  I don't really want to see the damage per hit of things go up to the point where they're one-shotting things (especially if they're attacks with range), but I think possibly shifting things to recharge 3 or 4 rather than 5 or 6 might make sense if encounter are only two or three rounds long.

Dec 27, 2012 -- 12:29PM, AaronOfBarbaria wrote:

I do want dragons to be the iconic monsters the game is named after - I do not want it to be impossible to defeat one unless you catch it in a moment of tactical stupidity and beat it on initiative so you can escape its death-breath.

Or, you know, the DM sees the suggested CR and mentally adds about 5.

Dec 27, 2012 -- 8:08AM, AaronOfBarbaria wrote:

Your breakdown is a bit unfair, as are all of these thought-out and the math done but not played-out types of examples always are - no consideration for party composition other than the "one of each big-four classes" evident in your inclusion of bless or prayer, and no consideration of terrain, mobility, or tactics.

I have last sunday's transcript somewhere, just can't find it (I cleaned up the house yesterday, need to do some looking). If I find it, I'll copy it here, you'll see how it plays out.
Of course I used average numbers, not what happened in a single battle (especially since I can't find the transcript, lol). Average numbers represent statistical objectivity, I'm not so sure about my dice. However, last Sunday's outcome did come out about the same as the average results.
The above simplistic approach to a battle with a (current version of a) dragon of course does not represent reality. One would have to figure in a lot more parameters. The average damage dealt represents the average possible outcome over say a thousand such battles. Sometimes, the dragon dominates or its frightful presence rules the day, or the PCs miss, or damage is above or below average, or the PCs use another option, or did not buff, or... or... The line has to be drawn somewhere, or else even non-linear dynamics and chaos theory will be inadequate to describe the system.

Dec 27, 2012 -- 8:08AM, AaronOfBarbaria wrote:

Your request #1: There is next to no purpose to spelling out every little detail that factors into a monster's stats unless those factors are not already listed in the monster description - waste of words, waste of space, and clutter that some of us would rather not have getting in our way.

If you're not interested in details, don't read them. I did say they should also provide the total result. I want to add class levels to a monster, gear it with magic equipment, and give it feats. Am I not entitled to know what stacks with that, simply because some other DM is bored to read through a few more numbers?

Dec 27, 2012 -- 8:08AM, AaronOfBarbaria wrote:

Your request #2: Dragon breath in some of the older editions (including 3.5) was off the rails dangerous, and needed to be scaled back. The damage of the breath weapon of the white (18 average, 28 max) compared to the HP a wizard or thief would have (34 +those gained from constitution) is actually pretty seriously scary... right where it should be in my opinion, rather than so high as to kill any character that didn't save as it once was.

It's a DRAGON we're talking about, not some random encounter in the woods. If the group walks into a fight with a DRAGON unprepared, someone should very well die from the breath weapon, most likely everyone will. Mistakes are punishable, and in an adventurer's line of work, they should be punishable by death - especially when they are so outrageously grave as attempting to fight a dragon unprepared.
A PC that fails his save against a dragon's breath should suffer a final maximum damage of about 3 hit points per character level - enough to scare even the lowly, d4-HD wizard. Final damage in this case implies halved due to successful save or appropriate resistance (through proper spell buff, potion, magic item, or what have you). So max breath weapon damage should be about 6 hp/character level, and assuming a dragon has 50% more HD than the average party level, breath weapon damage should be about 1d4 or 2.5 (or equivalent) per dragon HD.
So average breath damage should be: black 30, blue 35, green 30, red 37.5, white 27.5. All curently fall short.

Edit: I just noticed there is no resist energy/protection from energy spell yet.
Edit 2: One of the guys from my gaming group just reminded me that wizards now get a d6 HD (...). This means final breath damage should be 4 points per character level, not 3, or 1 - 5.2 per dragon HD (3.1 average). Scale above listed values for average breath damage by +24% plz.

Dec 27, 2012 -- 8:08AM, AaronOfBarbaria wrote:

Your request #3: Monsters should not have skills by default because skills should be an optional rule - there for those that want it, but absent by default for those that don't so that an adventure module never assumes you are using it. It is a lot easier to add skills to monsters than it is for me to forcibly omit them and get all that word count space back for the devs to spend on either more monsters in the book or a lower price point through a lower page count.

Skills are obligatory. Backgrounds are optional. There is a HUGE difference.
I want monsters as detailed as the PCs. I like to roleplay my monsters, not just roll their combat dice. Sometimes, PCs can parley with monsters, ask information, or even cooperate with them... This is a role-playing game after all... or is it? (4E managed to convince me of the opposite).

In short: A random fight with a dragon of an appropriate level (i.e. one classified as a tough encounter) should result in a TPK. Always. If the PCs want to fight a dragon, they had better get themselves really, really prepared. If this ends up not being the case, they should rename the game...