So, I have discovered something interesting. The game designers have repeatedly said that this game does not assume any magic items in its math. To be honest, I have just been taking them at their word. In the games I have played online, magic items seemed a little more common than I expected. But, I just figured that was an artifact of what the DMs I was playing with were giving out. When I played on my own time, magic items were quite rare. But, that is because that is how I hand them out. Then a discussion got started about how rare magic items are in the RAW if you use the randomized distribution rules. I ended up doing a bunch of math. These are my findings (assuming I have not made any mistakes in my sleep deprived and slightly feverish state):

ASSUMING THAT EVERY ENCOUNTER IS AN AVERAGE ENCOUNTER, AND EVERY LEVEL YOU EXPERIENCE 12 SUCH ENCOUNTERS (and with the small liberty of assuming that the odd break in growth pattern between the 91-96% range and the 97-99% range of the average encounter random magic item table is an editing typo that should be reversed):

The chance that

The chance that

The chance that

The chance that

The chance that

The chance that

The chance that

So, you are likely to find 3-4 rare items by the time you are level 20.

The chance that

The chance that

So, you are likely to find 1-2 very rare items (that is exactly what I guesstimated).

Again, the chance that

So, you are likely to find 0-1 legendary items by the time you are level 20 (which is what I already calculated up above).

In total, over the course of a campaign from level 1-20, the game assumes that you will find 3-4 (most likely 3) rare items, 1-2 (most likely 1) very rare items, and 0-1 (more likely 1, but not very likely) legendary items with any realistic probability of success. That is a total of 7 magic items, maximum, of any real potency that

What is interesting, however, is that, statistically speaking, everyone who needs one will have a +1 magic weapon. While the developers have told us that the game does not assume any magic items in its balance, statistically speaking, based on the rules provided, uncommon magic items should be common enough that by level 20 everyone can get their hands on whatever +1 magic item they might need (unless a DM is being very unreasonable).

Chance that the group will find at least 1 uncommon magic item by level 20: virtually 100%

Chance that the group will find at least 2 uncommon magic items in a single encounter by level 20: virtually 100%

Chance that the group will find at least 3 uncommon magic items by level 20: virtually 100%

All right, I am starting to get lazy, so instead of running all the math I will show a summary with a few calculations that indicate that my point is true. Basically, every encounter as of level 3 gives you a 15% of finding 1 uncommon magic item and a 5% of finding 2 uncommon magic items. Seeing as you will experience 216 encounters with those odds, the group will find a very large number of uncommon magic items. I mean, calculating

Now, in and of itself, I don't see a problem with that. The problem is that

Something we should consider. If that is an assumption of the game, fine. Personally, I like the "no magic required" assumption. As such, I think I would prefer it if they split magic weapons into two groups. Weapons that deal 1d4-1d6 damage should be uncommon when they are enchanted to +1. Weapons that deal 1d8+ damage should be rare when they are enchanted to +1.

ASSUMING THAT EVERY ENCOUNTER IS AN AVERAGE ENCOUNTER, AND EVERY LEVEL YOU EXPERIENCE 12 SUCH ENCOUNTERS (and with the small liberty of assuming that the odd break in growth pattern between the 91-96% range and the 97-99% range of the average encounter random magic item table is an editing typo that should be reversed):

**(Note: all numbers are rounded off.)**

**The chance that**

**a group***will find at least 1 rare item by level 20: 99%*The chance that

*a group**will find at least 2 rare items in one single encounter by level 20: 62%*The chance that

**a group***will find 1 rare item during two different encounters by level 20: 73%*The chance that

**a group***will find at least 2 rare items by level 20: 89%*The chance that

**a group***will find 2 rare items in one single encounter, twice, by level 20: 14%*The chance that

**a group***will find 4 rare items during four different encounters by level 20: 15%*The chance that

**a group***will find 2 rare items in one single encounter and 1 rare item during two different encounters by level 20: 45%*The chance that

**a group***will find at least 4 rare items by level 20: 59%*So, you are likely to find 3-4 rare items by the time you are level 20.

The chance that

**a group***will find at least 1 very rare item by level 20: 81%*The chance that

**a group***will find at least 2 very rare items by level 20: 33%*So, you are likely to find 1-2 very rare items (that is exactly what I guesstimated).

Again, the chance that

**a group***will find 1 legendary item by level 20: 51%.*So, you are likely to find 0-1 legendary items by the time you are level 20 (which is what I already calculated up above).

In total, over the course of a campaign from level 1-20, the game assumes that you will find 3-4 (most likely 3) rare items, 1-2 (most likely 1) very rare items, and 0-1 (more likely 1, but not very likely) legendary items with any realistic probability of success. That is a total of 7 magic items, maximum, of any real potency that

*is likely to find from level 1-20. Statistically speaking, the sort of magic armor you can expect to get your hands on by level 20 will be worse than the higher end non-magical armor you can buy. So, you cannot expect to have a suit of magical armor endgame. If you are lucky, 1 of the 7 potent magical items that the group finds***the group****might***be a suit of armor that benefits you, but that is purely up to the DM. Likewise, a mage cannot expect to have any magic items that boost its defense, as even bracers of defense are rare (and the group is only likely to find a total of 3-4 rare items). Finding something like robes of the magi would make the wizard the luckiest character in the group. So, insofar as PC AC is concerned, the core math does not assume that a PC will have a magic item.*What is interesting, however, is that, statistically speaking, everyone who needs one will have a +1 magic weapon. While the developers have told us that the game does not assume any magic items in its balance, statistically speaking, based on the rules provided, uncommon magic items should be common enough that by level 20 everyone can get their hands on whatever +1 magic item they might need (unless a DM is being very unreasonable).

Chance that the group will find at least 1 uncommon magic item by level 20: virtually 100%

Chance that the group will find at least 2 uncommon magic items in a single encounter by level 20: virtually 100%

Chance that the group will find at least 3 uncommon magic items by level 20: virtually 100%

All right, I am starting to get lazy, so instead of running all the math I will show a summary with a few calculations that indicate that my point is true. Basically, every encounter as of level 3 gives you a 15% of finding 1 uncommon magic item and a 5% of finding 2 uncommon magic items. Seeing as you will experience 216 encounters with those odds, the group will find a very large number of uncommon magic items. I mean, calculating

**just***my chance of finding 10 magic items when I find only 1 item per encounter, I already calculate a 74% of finding 10 magic items. As I will need to factor in all the other patterns by which I can find 10 magic items (such as finding 2 in one encounter an 1 in 9 other encounters, 2 in 2 encounters and 6 in 6 other encounters, and so on and so forth), my chance of actually finding 10 uncommon items is actually much higher! Somewhere between 10 and 20 your chance drops drastically. I would need to run more numbers than I care to to figure out exactly how many items a group will actually find, statistically speaking, but I estimate it at around 13 or 14 or so. When a group is finding that many uncommon magic items, it is reasonable to assume that uncommon items are among those that can be bought and sold. They will still be expensive items, but there will be a market for them. Their price point in the document seems to agree (100-500gp). When a group finds between 13-14 uncommon magic items, and their price point is only between 100-500gp, it seems likely that everyone in the group will be able to end up with at least one uncommon item of their choosing. That is not something that could be said to be true of the other probabilities I calculated above.*Now, in and of itself, I don't see a problem with that. The problem is that

**all magic items***, not just things like daggers, shortswords, hand-axes, and the other lower tier damage die weapons, are uncommon +1 magic items. So, the game actually does assume that everyone who wants one will be able to have at least a +1 magic item.*Something we should consider. If that is an assumption of the game, fine. Personally, I like the "no magic required" assumption. As such, I think I would prefer it if they split magic weapons into two groups. Weapons that deal 1d4-1d6 damage should be uncommon when they are enchanted to +1. Weapons that deal 1d8+ damage should be rare when they are enchanted to +1.

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