Pro Tour Gatecrash

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Any thoughts on the metagame shape based on what we've seen so far?


It looks like there's way less Aggro than expected, but I think that's because the Pros all anticipated an Aggro-heavy metagame and wanted to dodge it.

That being said, it looks like my early fears were correct - All of the proposed new Control variants, like Esper etc. are all still singly inferior to the Thragtusk-blinking Bant builds.

Ho-hum.

Manabases are looking way greedier than I expected too - Paulo has noted that a whole bunch of times Ghost Quarter has been a Strip Mine. 
I haven't been able to watch this weekend but this post only surprises me about one thing: That Bant is beating Esper. I think that's simply because the Esper decks are tooled more to beat Aggro.
 
Edit: Oh right, I told you so. Looking at some of the coverage this morning (Man, WOTCS does a terrible job of post game coverage) and Conley built mono-black with Crypt Ghast/Griselbrand 

(at)MrEnglish22

I haven't been able to watch this weekend but this post only surprises me about one thing: That Bant is beating Esper. I think that's simply because the Esper decks are tooled more to beat Aggro.
 
Edit: Oh right, I told you so. Looking at some of the coverage this morning (Man, WOTCS does a terrible job of post game coverage) and Conley built mono-black with Crypt Ghast/Griselbrand 



I don't know if Bant is "beating" Esper in the sense of the head-to-head matchup; in fact, I'd wager the Esper deck probably has the edge with Drownyard superiority.

No, my point was that Bant is outperforming Esper against the field, suggesting Farseek and spamming Thragtusks into Revelations is still the most successful way to play "Control".


Also, Conley's Gonna Conley. 
Not gonna lie, that deck-tech on conley got my nipples hard.
Yeah, I'm not sure who wouldn't have Ghost Quarter protection. Pretty hilarious to not run any basics. 
Farseek and hitting land drops is more relevant than ever in these midrange matchups. Still haven't seen much Control, outside of Esper. Loved watching Wafo-Tapa a few rounds ago.

Seemed like the field prepared very well for the Aggro matchup.

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I need that damn E-FRO list...it looks AMAAAZZZINNNGG.
Bant Control splashing Wolf Run looks like the deck to beat right now. It is good against anything not Esper Control. 
12 out of a possible 32 Reckoners.

That sound you just heard was the bubble bursting.
12 out of a possible 32 Reckoners. That sound you just heard was the bubble bursting.

I counted sixteen.

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12 out of a possible 32 Reckoners. That sound you just heard was the bubble bursting.


So 3/8 of the top 8 decks played reckoner, when everyone expected reckoner and prepared their decks to beat it.

How is that a bubble bursting exactly? 

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139359831 wrote:
I hope all this helps you to see things in a greater light—and understand that Magic: the Gathering was really created by extraterrestials using Richard Garfield as a medium. The game itself reflects the socio-psycho realtivity between living beings, and the science that takes precedence over them—to define reality for them all (like telekinesis, weather, scientific reaction, phenomenon, ingenuity, how the brain works, etc.). I'd also bet there is an entity floating thousands of miles above us, looking down on the current state of game, shaking its fist like... "Wtf are you doing?! You're getting it all screwed up!". Awkward—to be evolved, and yet still subject to the ladder that is the concepts of the game. In this case, misconception, corruption, and deception. With the realities of each color becoming distorted (through oblivious designers), leading the game to reflect a false state of reality that warps the understanding that other people have about those things. For example, people thinking that white could be anything except pure good. This shouldn't be too far off though, I mean...Magic is designed based on reality after all, so that entity (those entities) should be subject to those things. Anyways, I guess when you're busy doing space stuff you can't always be around to ensure quality control. It's no wonder they choose Garfield, they're so much alike; that's exactly what happened to him and Magic.
166199665 wrote:
omg snortng so much febbdelicious /intocixated in rl
12 out of a possible 32 Reckoners. That sound you just heard was the bubble bursting.


So 3/8 of the top 8 decks played reckoner, when everyone expected reckoner and prepared their decks to beat it.

How is that a bubble bursting exactly? 


Yeah, I'd buy them now. This seems like the point where the card will spike to its highest point then burst after that. 
When everyone was buying Reckoner at prices expecting a 6-7 out of 8 decks running the full play set, that's the bubble popping.

3/8 with the hype that people gave Reckoner before the PT means the price is going to DROP, not go up.

EDIT: I missed the Reckoners in the Aristocrats deck, so it's 50%.

However, the premise remains the same. If this was a result by a card noone expected and few were playing (e.g. Stoneforge Mystic in the Caw-Blade debut), then 50% in the Top 8 would cause a dramatic rise in price.


However, the pretournament position was that 4 Reckoner would be in almost all of the Top 8 decks, and his price was the highest of any card in Gatecrash purely on that speculation. The fact that he turned out to be just a good card, that could arguably have made 50% of the Top 8 just by the sheer number of people who were playing him, is by comparison a drop.

Essentially, hype > results, therefore the price will trend down. 
The price was going to drop regardless because speculators created a false demand which drove prices up. The bubble is popping because nobody will pay $25+ for a rare in standard, not because the card is under performing. There is a difference. 
The price was going to drop regardless because speculators created a false demand which drove prices up. The bubble is popping because nobody will pay $25+ for a rare in standard, not because the card is under performing. There is a difference. 



I'd argue it's both.

Reckoner was overhyped both in price and power. 
The price was going to drop regardless because speculators created a false demand which drove prices up. The bubble is popping because nobody will pay $25+ for a rare in standard, not because the card is under performing. There is a difference. 



I'd argue it's both.

Reckoner was overhyped both in price and power. 


Obviously we know your opinions on the card and you think it's not that great but it is still represented in half of the decks in the top 8. I don't think this is the same as when BR aggro was 50% of the field because Reckoner is being played a bunch of different decks doing different stuff. It's going in the aggro decks, the sorta bigger midrange stuff and being put into the flash decks. 

Also, Reckoner's preorder price was really low and sold low for a while. I would say it had no hype which caused it to blow up so hard which caused speculators and a lot of other people who didn't have 4 to go crazy over them.  
The price was going to drop regardless because speculators created a false demand which drove prices up. The bubble is popping because nobody will pay $25+ for a rare in standard, not because the card is under performing. There is a difference. 



I'd argue it's both.

Reckoner was overhyped both in price and power. 


Obviously we know your opinions on the card and you think it's not that great but it is still represented in half of the decks in the top 8. I don't think this is the same as when BR aggro was 50% of the field because Reckoner is being played a bunch of different decks doing different stuff. It's going in the aggro decks, the sorta bigger midrange stuff and being put into the flash decks.



But that's the point - it was in so many decks, it would be astounding if it WASN'T in the Top 8. That's not to say it isn't a worthy card, because it is, but the last fortnight people have been going crazy about how it's the single most important creature ever printed etc. etc.

Also, Reckoner's preorder price was really low and sold low for a while. I would say it had no hype which caused it to blow up so hard which caused speculators and a lot of other people who didn't have 4 to go crazy over them.  



For the week of the prerelease, it was $3-5. Then the hype wagon started.
Yeah, it's such a crap card, it was only in HALF OF THE TOP 8 SLOTS OF THE PRO TOUR. 

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139359831 wrote:
I hope all this helps you to see things in a greater light—and understand that Magic: the Gathering was really created by extraterrestials using Richard Garfield as a medium. The game itself reflects the socio-psycho realtivity between living beings, and the science that takes precedence over them—to define reality for them all (like telekinesis, weather, scientific reaction, phenomenon, ingenuity, how the brain works, etc.). I'd also bet there is an entity floating thousands of miles above us, looking down on the current state of game, shaking its fist like... "Wtf are you doing?! You're getting it all screwed up!". Awkward—to be evolved, and yet still subject to the ladder that is the concepts of the game. In this case, misconception, corruption, and deception. With the realities of each color becoming distorted (through oblivious designers), leading the game to reflect a false state of reality that warps the understanding that other people have about those things. For example, people thinking that white could be anything except pure good. This shouldn't be too far off though, I mean...Magic is designed based on reality after all, so that entity (those entities) should be subject to those things. Anyways, I guess when you're busy doing space stuff you can't always be around to ensure quality control. It's no wonder they choose Garfield, they're so much alike; that's exactly what happened to him and Magic.
166199665 wrote:
omg snortng so much febbdelicious /intocixated in rl
And how many thragtusks out of 32 possible?

Boros Reckoner needs more time to grow.
You can't just take a complex card and toss it into an existing deck and win.

 
And how many thragtusks out of 32 possible?

Boros Reckoner needs more time to grow.
You can't just take a complex card and toss it into an existing deck and win.

 



Actually, you can. Take UWR for example.

And whoever wanted to see Efro's deck, its almost exactly like Saito's Naya deck from Twitter, don't see anything super exciting about it.

As for the matchups for first round of T8, here are my predictions:
Stark beats Mann
 Gerry beats Larson, but only because I want Gerry to win. The mirror will be primarily about who gets better draws and whichever one blinks and doesn't side in Geist. If Gerry wins, Stark will be in dire striats though. Larson gives Stark much better odds.
 Efro V Turtenwald is the only matchup that seems exciting to me because both players have a good chance to win. I think its in Efro's favor slightly, however, despite the fact I want Turtenwald's deck to win as it is better suited to win against DeTora AND Martell.
Detorra V Martell, this is probably Martell's terrible matchup, besides Esper. If DeTorra doesn't draw any Supreme Verdicts or gets enough value Tusks, she could very easily lose. Honestly don't see what's good about Martell's deck beyond the ability to turn your little dudes into big dudes late game with the High Priest.

I could keep extrapolating, but the deck I want to see do the best are Stark's Esper, Martell's pile, and Turtenwald's Jund. I want Martell to do well because I want the millions of netdeckers to get wrecked when they go to build the deck, but thats about it.
I want to see Efro wreck this top 8 because he deserves a good finish, but I dont' want to see a deck playing Gyre Sage doing well. Same for Turtenwald, but I want to play RUG or Bant for GTC Standard and want Huntmaster/Breeding Pool to stay cheap.

(at)MrEnglish22

Someone give me an update about the matches. I see I was right about Stark and Efro.
How right was I about the Gerry T match?

(at)MrEnglish22

Reckoner v Reckoner
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I have to say it was nice seeing another Sam Black creation take first place. In a meta full of Battlecruiser Magic, it was nice to see dorks and bears take it home.

Reckoner + Act was probably the scariest interaction in the tournament.

It's hard to go back now, but Laarson did have a chance to infinite in the third game, if he chooses Boros Charm instead of Azorius Charm with Augur. But he went with the safe bet, and it didn't quite work out for him. Amazing player nonetheless.  

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Sam Black is one if my favourite players, and probably the best deckbuilder on the Tour, but I have no idea about their deck.

It's mighty ugly, and I don't really understand why Cartel Aristocrat is playable over the 2/2 Vindicator outside of Angel Reanimator.

By my count, there are 119 Reckoners in the decks that went 18 points or better, out of a possible 396, for 30% representation.

It's too hard to count on my phone, but I intend to compare this to Thragtusk and maybe Augur of Bolas or RestoAngel this evening.
Sam Black is one if my favourite players, and probably the best deckbuilder on the Tour, but I have no idea about their deck. It's mighty ugly, and I don't really understand why Cartel Aristocrat is playable over the 2/2 Vindicator outside of Angel Reanimator. By my count, there are 119 Reckoners in the decks that went 18 points or better, out of a possible 396, for 30% representation. It's too hard to count on my phone, but I intend to compare this to Thragtusk and maybe Augur of Bolas or RestoAngel this evening.


If by that, you mean High Priest of Penance, that would be because A)it's a sacrifice outlet for a deck designed to make use of them and B)aristocrat is actually a 2/2 and high priest is only a 1/1.
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Oh, I thought High Priest was a 2/2. Forget it then.

That being said, what besides Tragic Slip needs a sacrifice outlet in that deck (Hint: not Doomed Traveller).
It is so you can block/sac against opposing Reckoner.
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Wrong about Boros Reckoner and now wrong about Cartel Aristocrat. 
Wrong about Reckoner?


Thragtusk had 123 appearances out of a possible 396, for a slightly higher percentage of 31% - there were more Thragtusk decks than Reckoner decks, but where almost all of the Reckoner decks were running 4 maindeck, there were a lot more people running 3 Thragtusks, or two, or even 1. There were also a handful of decks sideboarding their Thragtusks (some had a 1-1 split main and side, others had 4 in the side). 

Augur of Bolas saw more 3-ofs than 4-ofs, and came in at 83 out of 396, for 21%. 
Reckoner is a fine card. That's all there is to it. Its not overpowered, its not the best creature in the format, its not utter garbage. Let it go.

Also, the morbid deck runs Skirsdag High Priest, which runs off morbid. I did notice that. Still surprised that it won the PT 

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Crazy... a deck using a WB base to run off morbid with 4 Orzhov Charms to beat up on Reckoners.

If only someone had thought of that already this week.

(granted red is obviously nice, but I do like my green) 

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how the aristocrats won anything is amazing to me.... it looks like a complete pile

i had such high hopes for standard with RTR block coming into the picture, but it, for me, has just been one disappointment after another.  

should it be any wonder that reckoner isn't seeing as much play as thragtusk?  i'm pretty sure that thragtusk has always been a little more universal than reckoner is coupled with thragtusk (debuting into RTR standard) was in a smaller card pool.

you know what beats reckoner?  a hell of a lot.  esper control will pick up and start dominating a lot of people.  its just a few pros and wins away from being a real thing in this format.  supreme verdict laughs at reckoner and most other crap, but maybe not as much as terminus though. 

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Reviewing the coverage, it seems like Martel got very lucky in the Semis and Final - his opponents got terrible draws of flood or screw in 2 of their games (DeTora also misplayed one game badly, but its not clear whether or not that changed the result). That being said, Martel's topdecking of threats is not all that surprising given the deck is basically all threats anyway.

The metagame analysis noted that the deck's overall performance statistically wasn't strong, and that's before you factor in that it was exclusively played by the top caliber of players which means its true position was arguably worse.

I'm a little surprised at how popular Jund was over Naya, actually, but I guess removal is a premium commodity at the moment. Also pleasantly surprised to see Domri Rare perform so well.
It's interesting, but I think this PT Standard was not very well representitive of the larger standard at hand. Everyone expected hyperaggro and DeTora's list was more of a TurboLife deck that wins by turning creatures into fireballs which is significantly worse than the Bant decks from the last part of the season, but significantly better positioned in a room full of midrange players looking to gobble up the format's boogeymen. It feels like, as is the case with some PTs, some amount of the field over-meta'd and put themselves at a terrible disadvantage.
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how the aristocrats won anything is amazing to me.... it looks like a complete pile

i had such high hopes for standard with RTR block coming into the picture, but it, for me, has just been one disappointment after another.  

should it be any wonder that reckoner isn't seeing as much play as thragtusk?  i'm pretty sure that thragtusk has always been a little more universal than reckoner is coupled with thragtusk (debuting into RTR standard) was in a smaller card pool.

you know what beats reckoner?  a hell of a lot.  esper control will pick up and start dominating a lot of people.  its just a few pros and wins away from being a real thing in this format.  supreme verdict laughs at reckoner and most other crap, but maybe not as much as terminus though. 




Looks can be deceiving. They obviously were at the PT. Esper is only going to dominate people until they realize that they have 2 significantly solid options to wreck espers gameplan that can be played in ANY deck. 1 being pithing needle....and the 2nd being elixir of immortality....neither of which will be bad against other things.
neither of those cards are particularly frightening to esper.  there are plenty of answers to both, played naturally in the deck.  besides, anyone that things running a miser elixir as a trump to drownyard has clearly never had theirs simply milled away.

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And an answer to Drownyard would be ghost quarter
Crazy... a deck using a WB base to run off morbid with 4 Orzhov Charms to beat up on Reckoners.

If only someone had thought of that already this week.

(granted red is obviously nice, but I do like my green) 


Your decks are worlds apart.  His deck was an aggro decks, whereas you were running thragtusks and garruks.  It's like comparing loam decks to dredge decks:  yes, they both use the graveyard and dredge for value, but they're worlds apart in what they're trying to accomplish.

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139359831 wrote:
I hope all this helps you to see things in a greater light—and understand that Magic: the Gathering was really created by extraterrestials using Richard Garfield as a medium. The game itself reflects the socio-psycho realtivity between living beings, and the science that takes precedence over them—to define reality for them all (like telekinesis, weather, scientific reaction, phenomenon, ingenuity, how the brain works, etc.). I'd also bet there is an entity floating thousands of miles above us, looking down on the current state of game, shaking its fist like... "Wtf are you doing?! You're getting it all screwed up!". Awkward—to be evolved, and yet still subject to the ladder that is the concepts of the game. In this case, misconception, corruption, and deception. With the realities of each color becoming distorted (through oblivious designers), leading the game to reflect a false state of reality that warps the understanding that other people have about those things. For example, people thinking that white could be anything except pure good. This shouldn't be too far off though, I mean...Magic is designed based on reality after all, so that entity (those entities) should be subject to those things. Anyways, I guess when you're busy doing space stuff you can't always be around to ensure quality control. It's no wonder they choose Garfield, they're so much alike; that's exactly what happened to him and Magic.
166199665 wrote:
omg snortng so much febbdelicious /intocixated in rl
And an answer to Drownyard would be ghost quarter



But nobody has been running it and I'm sure Stark knew that.  Even if they were, they'd need to deal with all 4 Drownyards since the game will go long and  Esper will outlast you. They only really need the one to win.  If they get Jace 3.0 online on top of that it's just gravy.
Crazy... a deck using a WB base to run off morbid with 4 Orzhov Charms to beat up on Reckoners.

If only someone had thought of that already this week.

(granted red is obviously nice, but I do like my green) 


Your decks are worlds apart.  His deck was an aggro decks, whereas you were running thragtusks and garruks.  It's like comparing loam decks to dredge decks:  yes, they both use the graveyard and dredge for value, but they're worlds apart in what they're trying to accomplish.



The conceptual core is the same. =/

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