The only thing that isn't fun about magic

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Hi there,
My name's Mark, I'm pretty new to magic (started playing during Innistrad).  Love the game and have been having a lot of fun at Friday night magic and with MTGO.  There is one thing about the game that isn't fun though and as many magic players I've seen like to do, I wanted to express it to the world after a not-so-fun loss.  I do this in good humour (and hopefully I did the math right).  I think I'm going to go buy a lottery ticket later.

The correct formula for finding the probability of drawing a certain card over a certain number of turns is actually:

H(n)=C(x, n)*C(y-x, z-n)/C(y, z)

Where X is the number of copies of the card you want,

Y is the total number of cards in the deck,

Z is the number of cards you are drawing,

and N is the number you are checking for (i.e. "What are the odds of drawing exactly one land?"). 


The function C(x, y) is a combination factorial. It means C(x, y)=x!(y!*(x-y)!).

Plugging in the numbers you wrote in your notepad show that you have a 42% of drawing at least one land within the next three turns. 
Etiamnunc sto, etiamsi caelum ruat.
The correct formula for finding the probability of drawing a certain card over a certain number of turns is actually:

H(n)=C(x, n)*C(y-x, z-n)/C(y, z)

Where X is the number of copies of the card you want,

Y is the total number of cards in the deck,

Z is the number of cards you are drawing,

and N is the number you are checking for (i.e. "What are the odds of drawing exactly one land?"). 


The function C(x, y) is a combination factorial. It means C(x, y)=x!(y!*(x-y)!).

Plugging in the numbers you wrote in your notepad show that you have a 42% of drawing at least one land within the next three turns. 

Thanks for the cool prediction formula!  I was just trying to show how unlucky it was by showing that drawing that many non lands in a row had a 0.1% chance of happening.  In other words on average getting that bad of draws should only happen once every 1000 games.  Now that's luck for ya!
I just used the simple Prob(A and B) = Prob(A)*Prob(B)

The correct formula for finding the probability of drawing a certain card over a certain number of turns is actually:

H(n)=C(x, n)*C(y-x, z-n)/C(y, z)

Where X is the number of copies of the card you want,

Y is the total number of cards in the deck,

Z is the number of cards you are drawing,

and N is the number you are checking for (i.e. "What are the odds of drawing exactly one land?"). 


The function C(x, y) is a combination factorial. It means C(x, y)=x!(y!*(x-y)!).

Plugging in the numbers you wrote in your notepad show that you have a 42% of drawing at least one land within the next three turns. 

There was a time in my life when I might have stared at this with genuine curiosity, like it was some kind of otherworldly puzzle whose solution I must find, and wisdom I must glean. I would have wanted to understand it and to see how it works—all of those letters masquerading as numbers; incredible!

...
...
...

And then, in college, they tried to explain to me how the square root of negative one isn't actually a number, but we use it anyway in math. That's when I realized that I'd been lied to for my entire life, and that math is really just another blind-faith religion. At this point I'm more or less entirely convinced that anything more complicated than 14+2 simply does not exist.
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The function C(x, y) is a combination factorial. It means C(x, y)=x!(y!*(x-y)!).


isn't that C(x, y)=x!/(y!*(x-y)!)?

 

120.6. Some effects replace card draws.

 

why are you here when NGA exists and is just better

And then, in college, they tried to explain to me how the square root of negative one isn't actually a number, but we use it anyway in math. That's when I realized that I'd been lied to for my entire life, and that math is really just another blind-faith religion. At this point I'm more or less entirely convinced that anything more complicated than 14+2 simply does not exist.


That's... really, really sad.

Math is almost the opposite of a blind faith -- from a shockingly small set of axioms, using nothing but logic we derive the complex systems of arithmetic, calculus, algebra...   Yes, those axioms are assumptions, but the amazing, beautiful, fantastic thing is that these systems, derived from essentially abstract principles via a vast amount of symbol-pushing, turn out to be incredibly useful at representing the world we live in.  The way that set theory begets integers, which produce the real line and the complex plane, where differential equations twist and contort and produce remarkably accurate models of how water flows -- it's simply beautiful.

/ signed, a sort-of-professional math-person

"Go, then. There are other worlds than these." -- Stephen King, The Gunslinger

Please feel free to copy this message into your sig.

And then, in college, they tried to explain to me how the square root of negative one isn't actually a number, but we use it anyway in math. That's when I realized that I'd been lied to for my entire life, and that math is really just another blind-faith religion. At this point I'm more or less entirely convinced that anything more complicated than 14+2 simply does not exist.


That's... really, really sad.

Math is almost the opposite of a blind faith -- from a shockingly small set of axioms, using nothing but logic we derive the complex systems of arithmetic, calculus, algebra...   Yes, those axioms are assumptions, but the amazing, beautiful, fantastic thing is that these systems, derived from essentially abstract principles via a vast amount of symbol-pushing, turn out to be incredibly useful at representing the world we live in.  The way that set theory begets integers, which produce the real line and the complex plane, where differential equations twist and contort and produce remarkably accurate models of how water flows -- it's simply beautiful.

/ signed, a sort-of-professional math-person



Yeah, I never managed to get away with the "Math offends my religion, so I shouldn't have to attend these classes" excuse either.
And then, in college, they tried to explain to me how the square root of negative one isn't actually a number, but we use it anyway in math. That's when I realized that I'd been lied to for my entire life, and that math is really just another blind-faith religion. At this point I'm more or less entirely convinced that anything more complicated than 14+2 simply does not exist.


That's... really, really sad.

Math is almost the opposite of a blind faith -- from a shockingly small set of axioms, using nothing but logic we derive the complex systems of arithmetic, calculus, algebra...   Yes, those axioms are assumptions, but the amazing, beautiful, fantastic thing is that these systems, derived from essentially abstract principles via a vast amount of symbol-pushing, turn out to be incredibly useful at representing the world we live in.  The way that set theory begets integers, which produce the real line and the complex plane, where differential equations twist and contort and produce remarkably accurate models of how water flows -- it's simply beautiful.

/ signed, a sort-of-professional math-person





All systems tend to describe the world remarkably accurate...depending on your perspective. Math has MANY disparities and many of those disparities are explained away with unproven formulas that "seem to fit". Math is essential to our daily life but it doesn't "explain" anything, it merely gives a way to come to conclusions.
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And then, in college, they tried to explain to me how the square root of negative one isn't actually a number, but we use it anyway in math. That's when I realized that I'd been lied to for my entire life, and that math is really just another blind-faith religion. At this point I'm more or less entirely convinced that anything more complicated than 14+2 simply does not exist.


That's... really, really sad.

Math is almost the opposite of a blind faith -- from a shockingly small set of axioms, using nothing but logic we derive the complex systems of arithmetic, calculus, algebra...   Yes, those axioms are assumptions, but the amazing, beautiful, fantastic thing is that these systems, derived from essentially abstract principles via a vast amount of symbol-pushing, turn out to be incredibly useful at representing the world we live in.  The way that set theory begets integers, which produce the real line and the complex plane, where differential equations twist and contort and produce remarkably accurate models of how water flows -- it's simply beautiful.

/ signed, a sort-of-professional math-person



What many, often spoiled Americans (being a spoiled American), try to escape in math is that math is simple logic seeking truth by manipulating simple values. I had a great deal of difficulty with algebraics until I began studying Chemistry and intently applying the principles as opposed to sticking values into space.  Similarly, Statistics was relatively simple when I was able to grasp tangible questions and ideas. Mathmatics become a second language when you begin to see and experience the world in a non-binary fashion. It's non-intuitive, and thus "it's hard", so people try to actively not absorb it, and turn it into something as ugly as early Algebra classes make it out to be.

Also, Tzar-
Nihilism is a faith and religion as much as any other. It's not uncommon for a young person to go through a Nihilistic period in which they assume they can reject the concepts of religions or sciences, until the Nihilism evolves into a more complex understanding of the universe in that the only certainty is uncertainty, and that life is worth living, science is beautiful, it's okay to be wrong, and it's only human nature to be religious, even if your respective religion isn't based on doctrine or God-figures. This is probably a phenomenon loosely correlating to the myelination of axons and development of the frontal lobes of the human brain.

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This thread is a lot more fun to read if you read the whole thing in the voice of Soundwave.    
And then, in college, they tried to explain to me how the square root of negative one isn't actually a number, but we use it anyway in math.


Isaac Asimov would disagree with that.

But it is true that i isn't really a number in one way - unlike a fraction or an irrational number, it isn't an answer to the question "how much" or "how many". Negative numbers bend that rule but fall just short of breaking it.

Still, though, as elements of a division algebra, complex numbers do behave like numbers mathematically, and help us with understanding electromagnetic fields, or in conformal mapping.

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@Razorborne: Yes! Thank you.

@Tzar: You think sqrt(-1) is strange? What if I told you that e^(Pi*sqrt(-1))=1?
Etiamnunc sto, etiamsi caelum ruat.
@Razorborne: Yes! Thank you. @Tzar: You think sqrt(-1) is strange? What if I told you that e^(Pi*sqrt(-1))=1?



Putting it on another way:



This is elegance, my friends.

[<o>]
@Razorborne: Yes! Thank you. @Tzar: You think sqrt(-1) is strange? What if I told you that e^(Pi*sqrt(-1))=1?



Putting it on another way:



This is elegance, my friends.




The Church of Science is a powerful force. 

RESIST 
And then, in college, they tried to explain to me how the square root of negative one isn't actually a number, but we use it anyway in math. That's when I realized that I'd been lied to for my entire life, and that math is really just another blind-faith religion. At this point I'm more or less entirely convinced that anything more complicated than 14+2 simply does not exist.



All systems tend to describe the world remarkably accurate...depending on your perspective. Math has MANY disparities and many of those disparities are explained away with unproven formulas that "seem to fit". Math is essential to our daily life but it doesn't "explain" anything, it merely gives a way to come to conclusions.



... You two are joking, right? Right? Surely you don't seriously think that Math is some sort of Voodoo right? I know we joke a lot about the good ol' 'MURICAN public school system, but I like to think that if nothing else people acknowledge that Math is important, even if they themselves don't understand it. 
Immature College Student (Also a Rules Advisor)
if you are interested Math can be broken down to VERY basics, so all of those "disparities" can be explained and proven
actually, "basics" is misleading in this case, because it gets quite complicated to actually mathematically prove even simple stuff like addition or multiplication

I passed my math exam years ago and happily forgot most of it ;)
proud member of the 2011 community team

And then, in college, they tried to explain to me how the square root of negative one isn't actually a number, but we use it anyway in math. That's when I realized that I'd been lied to for my entire life, and that math is really just another blind-faith religion. At this point I'm more or less entirely convinced that anything more complicated than 14+2 simply does not exist.


Yeah, that's just like when I was in college and those brainwashed liberal science professors tried to tell me we evolved from monkeys. IF WE EVOLVED FROM MONKEYS WHY ARE THERE STILL MONKEYS!?1 Stupid idiots.

reality has a well established liberal bias
proud member of the 2011 community team
Yes, this.  Here is a reasonable expansion of part of Russell and Whitehead's proof that 1+1=2.  Happily, once somebody deals with that sort of nonsense the rest of us can get on with things that interest us, reassured that there's some basis for what we're doing.

"Go, then. There are other worlds than these." -- Stephen King, The Gunslinger

Please feel free to copy this message into your sig.

I like math Laughing, out of interest, weren't there people trying to prove that 1=1, or was it something similar?
I like math Laughing, out of interest, weren't there people trying to prove that 1=1, or was it something similar?



Damn matheists, questioning the universal truths.
reality has a well established liberal bias




Evolution has nothing to do with liberalism... nor any other political creed.

reality has a well established liberal bias




Evolution has nothing to do with liberalism... nor any other political creed.



I assume he said that because my ignorant post had a theme of "librul librul librul stupid librul." But, as far as big party politics are concerned, liberals do generally tend to have a greater understanding and appreciation for the sciences rather than conservatives, some of who'm would clearly prefer that we go back to the dark ages.
@catowner: The probability of what?
Etiamnunc sto, etiamsi caelum ruat.
The probability of catowner having such a program obviously.
Immature College Student (Also a Rules Advisor)
I like math Laughing, out of interest, weren't there people trying to prove that 1=1, or was it something similar?


Around 1900, I think someone shook up Math theory by suggesting they prove 1+1=2, or any such very simple thing. Basically, it's too simple to prove the way higher math concepts are proven. By the rules of the time, anything not proven in that way wasn't true.

So, Good Trolling, that guy from 1900.
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I like math Laughing, out of interest, weren't there people trying to prove that 1=1, or was it something similar?


Around 1900, I think someone shook up Math theory by suggesting they prove 1+1=2, or any such very simple thing. Basically, it's too simple to prove the way higher math concepts are proven. By the rules of the time, anything not proven in that way wasn't true.

So, Good Trolling, that guy from 1900.



You're probably thinking of the 1910 book that Glasir posted about that does prove that 1+1=2.
Etiamnunc sto, etiamsi caelum ruat.
@Tzar: You think sqrt(-1) is strange? What if I told you that e^(Pi*sqrt(-1))=1?



e^iπ=-1, not 1.

@Tzar: You think sqrt(-1) is strange? What if I told you that e^(Pi*sqrt(-1))=1?



e^iπ=-1, not 1.



Indeed. I am apparently not in form, forgetting that the original identity was e^(i*pi)+1=0, not e^(i*pi)-1=0.
Etiamnunc sto, etiamsi caelum ruat.
It is simply unbelievable how many people on this forum are incapable of understanding jokes.

Their name is TzarChasm ffs 
reality has a well established liberal bias




Evolution has nothing to do with liberalism... nor any other political creed.




Some people would use it to support their ideal society...if their supporters didn't deny it.
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Ooh, I wrote a program for this!

The probability is actually 0.315%




Thanks for confirming. I was rounding to 2 decimals which is why I'd be off by a fraction of a percentage compared to a computer program calculating it.  Those non-lands just kept on commin!

I'd also like to add, that I've just been wonderfully surprized by the discussion that ensued from the post - it was my first post on here.

Thanks for having an opinion and being respectful of one another.
-Mark
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