So I was trying to come up with this on my own, and I wasn't sure of the best way to go about this. What is the formula for determining how often a player would win in the absence of mana issues, based on their observed record in games where they had no mana issues, the liklihood mana issues are hit and the general record for players who hit mana issues. Or is there a formula that uses variables different from these?

What I'm trying to get at is, let's say a given player wins 80% of their games when they have no mana issues. You can't say that they would win 80% of their games if mana issues were taken out, because some of those wins came in games where their opponent lost due to mana issues when they would not have won otherwise. I'd like a formula to figure out what the adjustment should be.

What I'm trying to get at is, let's say a given player wins 80% of their games when they have no mana issues. You can't say that they would win 80% of their games if mana issues were taken out, because some of those wins came in games where their opponent lost due to mana issues when they would not have won otherwise. I'd like a formula to figure out what the adjustment should be.