To mulligan or not to mulligan

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I thought of starting this thread to help identify keepable hands and hands that should be shipped back. Please post any hands that you are not sure on or you think are close. For example if it is a tough decision because of a shortage of mana we can do some maths to see if you will likely get there or not.

Please do not post obvious mulligans or keeps

so today I had a hand of

Swamp, Forest, yavimaya elder, Master of the wild hunt, Spiritmonger, Greater Good, Pernicious deed

would you keep this on the draw? How about on the play?
Very nice thread idea.  I think deciding what to mulligan and what to keep can sometimes be the single most difficult choice throughout the course of the game.

In your specific example, this is what I would do... I think.

On the play, mulligan to 7: Mulligan
On the play, mulligan to 6: Mulligan <- hardest decision

On the draw, mulligan to 7: Mulligan
On the draw, mulligan to 6: Keep

Very interested in hearing other people's opinions.  I'll also post some difficult choices when I come across them.

My goal is always to have 3 mana on my starting hand, all the other cards are negligible to me. Two is fine with certain decks. Sorry that is my strategy. lol
Depends heavily on the deck, but in general I mulligan very aggressively.


In some decks I have to mulligan to a specific card: for instance, in Cheeri0s, I always mulligan to either Glimpse of Nature or a tutor for it.  


In most non-combo decks where I don't need something specific, I mulligan to at least 2 lands and at least one business spell within the first two turns. This of course doesn't include decks that I've specifically built to break this rule, such as Xerox Control, which is perfectly fine keeping a one-lander.


I am never afraid to go to 5, but mulling to four is a tough call sometimes.


Most Vintage decks I've built are fairly mulligan-roof. Even when you do have to throw hands away, mulling to 3 and seeing Mishra's Workshop, Trinisphere, Lodestone Golem is really cool. Or Elvish Spirit Guide, Forbidden Orchard, Hermit Druid.
Etiamnunc sto, etiamsi caelum ruat.

Swamp, Forest, yavimaya elder, Master of the wild hunt, Spiritmonger, Greater Good, Pernicious deed

would you keep this on the draw? How about on the play?


Initially I would probably be tempted to keep a hand like that. I've done so in the past, but I feel like more often than not it didn't work out the way I had hoped. If it's your opening hand then I would go for a muligan. Both the Yavimaya Elder and Master of the Wild Hunt will need at least two forest to get going. Greater Good is another four drop that needs two forest. If that second forest doesn't show up quick you could easily be fighting an uphill battle early on. If you've already muliganed once and this is your next hand it would of course be more tempting to keep. The number of Evolving Wilds in the deck could make a difference when determining your odds of getting a better land ratio. I'm thinking to keep the hand if odds aren't too great that you'll draw something better, but if you have plenty of Evolving Wilds then I would feel inclined to muligan once more.
Swamp, Forest, yavimaya elder, Master of the wild hunt, Spiritmonger, Greater Good, Pernicious deed

would you keep this on the draw? How about on the play?

I think there's a nice sense of high risk, high reward going on here. Lack of two Forests should quickly be noted as quite troublesome. So much power in that second Forest that the hand might rely a little too much on it. I mean, you could luck into the second Forest and be set for the game, but if you don't and you're getting Swamped, you're really just hoping Deed can buy you some time until you draw something relevant. Then there's also the possibility of failing to draw a third land on time or at all, which can really shut down this hand.

I guess you could go either way and hope to be rewarded by drawing the right cards (Forest), or hope diving back in for a new hand can give you something more stable. I'm sure there are some percentages one could work out if they really wanted to, but my gut instinct says I would follow a similar analysis to that of konokono's. I think I like my chances of getting a more stable hand for all scenarios, but I might tempt fate if I already took my free mull and was on the draw. Maybe.
What you need to consider, is not the imporatnce of casting the elder or master on turn three/four but whether you top draw other cards that you can use.  Also those are both cards that are relevant in the late game if you survive to get there.  Unless your playing 4 elders plus trolls, and greater goods, then 1 forest shouldn't cripple the deck.  When I used to play SS with a bunch of gg cards I usually picked hands with two forests/wilds in them.  Now I don't and find the deck runs like a dream.  

I almost never mull past 6 cards because your changes of getting a starting hand that's servisable is diminishing, and you often end up taking a hand that doesn't look as good as the origional.  In mono colored decks, though I am much more likely to mulligan if I have the right number of lands, but dislike the cards.  In a two color deck, I rarely mull a hand that has both colors unless it has 5+ lands.  I see this as a sign that mana flood is on the way.  (if you have only two spells, and only 2/3 draws are spells, you'll be in top draw mode very fast.  If half or more of your draws are lands then your chances of winning are slim.

I always expect a land draw within three turns, and a specific land drop in 6 turns.  Those are the odds, and anything else would be unusual. (in your scenario, I would expect to have the second green mana on turn 6, just in time to repopulate the board from the deed I cast turn 5) You shouldn't plan for the unusual, just accept it when it comes.
Swamp, Forest, yavimaya elder, Master of the wild hunt, Spiritmonger, Greater Good, Pernicious deed

would you keep this on the draw? How about on the play?

but if you don't and you're getting Swamped



I see what you did there.
I'm always looking for at least one thing to cast in my starting hand without being dependant on drawing more lands later.
Most hands with 3-4 lands are worth keeping (unless the other cards are expensive bombs).
2 lands are worth keeping if your hand is aggressive.

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I'd really like to hear more about what people would do in the specific situation given by the OP
I would mulligan. I just don't trust DOTP not to screw me on that second forest. Sitting and waiting for that land to drop that never does is the most frustrating part of the game. Worse than land denial and discard combined.

As an example i had 2 lands in hand with a 3,4, two 5 and a 7 mana card in my opening hand. The 3 mana was a repulse which help draws more land. I turned over 6 cards, without a land. At which point the game was too far gone and i conceded. 
I wouldn't keep that hand on either the draw or the play.  If I could adjust the forest balance to be more than 11 I'd probably keep it, but I can't.  

I just think that SS's greatest chance of losing is to mana screw.  The Elder means the odds aren't terrible that this hand is good, but I've kept too many 2 land hands under similar circumstances and gotten burned from it (I also run lots of cards with 2 forest casting costs though).

Two exceptions though:

--I'd keep it if it were a 2HG game and it was clear that my partner could make turn 2 and turn 3 plays.
--it it were a choice between this hand and mulliganning to 6, I'm not so sure.  I think I'd keep it, because mulliganning to 6 is more likely to give you 2 lands anyway, in my experience.  Without the Elder, I'd definitely mulligan to 6.  With the Elder, I'd probably keep it.
Like others have said, the lack of that second forest is what kills the hand for me. There's just too much risk without it, and I've been burned too many times gambling on what comes in the draw. I'd say mulligan and hope for better.

In general, I'm fine with two lands in the opening hand as long as there's also something that can be played with what I've got. If I have two lands and 3+cmc cards, I mulligan.
Its ok to generalise but does anyone have any examples if specific hands that are tough. Like this

3x mountain, goblin chieftain, goblin warchief, voracious dragon, goblin grenade.
Now I would mull this but it does prove you cannot just set rules like 3 lands is a keep
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Wow what did I miss?
I always want to have 3 lands (some exceptions: I accept 2 lands if I have at least 4 cards with 1-2 CMC, and land substitutes or searchers are acceptable as lands if they're playable), and "something to do", meaning at least 2 things that are quickly playable and are actually meaningful (for example: just 2x Counterspell isn't meaningful: I want something that builds up a field and is usable for begin-game). When I go first, I'm fine with only 1 meaningful card of 2 CMC or less as long as there's also one of 3 CMC (no more). If I go second, I want 2 meaningful cards with 2 CMC or less. Of course, this can differ based on the deck and the amount of 1-2 CMC meaningful cards it has (the fewer it has, the more flexible I am). I'm also a bit more flexible when I've done my free mulligan.

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Post #1000 on Feb 02, 2013

Post #2000 on Sep 04, 2013

Forest, Plains, Selesnya Evangel, Civic Wayfinder, Beastmaster Ascension, Ant Queen and Silklash Spider. Do you keep this hand or not?



Depends on the rest of your deck.  For my build, I don't have the Ant Queen or the Spider, but let's say you replace that with two 4cmc cards from my build. 

So in my case, I would keep the hand, even on my first mulligan, on the play or on the draw.  The reason being that T2 I can play the Evangel, and I am fairly confident that by T3 I will either have drawn another land or a 2cmc creature.
 

 
Forest, Plains, Selesnya Evangel, Civic Wayfinder, Beastmaster Ascension, Ant Queen and Silklash Spider. Do you keep this hand or not?

On the draw, for certain I keep it.  On the play I think harder about it, but probably still keep.  One land of any color in the first 3 turns turns that into a solid hand.

On the other hand, NOT getting that land turns it into a total deadweight, since you can't even use the Evangel to start genning tokens.

But the odds of one land draw in 3 turns is generally ~78% on the draw, ~64% on the play (given that DOTP enforces roughly 40% land counts).  So Yeah, I'll take those odds almost any day.

Konokono makes a good point below in that any other 2 CMC creature makes a turn 3 stall livable, so even more in favor of keep.
Forest, Plains, Selesnya Evangel, Civic Wayfinder, Beastmaster Ascension, Ant Queen and Silklash Spider. Do you keep this hand or not?




Personally I would not take that hand. If you don't top deck a land (nevermind even getting mana fixed) you can get into trouble quick consicering that you still need ne more lands to even have the Civic Wayfinder help you out. You have to remember that there are player out there that run land destruction cards and if you are behind they will make sure you stay there. On top of that with that hand you need to be top decking both good low cmc cards as well as lands. I don't like it...
Wow what did I miss?



I'm not sure.  Maybe people were talking trash to you for suggesting that Goblin Gangland could have anything but a nut draw hand Cool


First and foremost, whether or not you take a mulligan can heavily depend on what deck you are up against.

However, assuming the question was posited as to playing against unknown decks online, I would mulligan the GG hand you suggested (assuming a free mulligan); I think it would start out too slow which you do not want to do with Goblins against any deck.


As for the SS hand in the OP, I would likely keep it on the draw even if you had a free milligan.  All you need to do is draw a land and you can drop the Deed which, even if you didn't draw another land would offer you some protection to stall untill you got going.

Also, I probably have an irrational fear of taking a mulligan on a decent hand because it seems like as soon as I give up that 2-3 land with higher cc cards hand, the 1 to no land hands start rolling in until I'm down to 4 cards Frown
Forest, Plains, Selesnya Evangel, Civic Wayfinder, Beastmaster Ascension, Ant Queen and Silklash Spider. Do you keep this hand or not?


I would also agree about it being somewhat dependant on how the rest of your deck looks. For me my most recent build was very heavy on 2cmc creatures. As long as one of those or any land shows up you could start things off at a decent pace. So if the odds of that happening aren't bad then I would keep it. Though even if your deck is top heavy, while I certainly wouldn't feel as confident, Civic Wayfinder is like your only source for land ramp. Since you only need one of either land by turn three those aren't terrible odds and even if you don't get it you'll still at least have one of 2cmc creature on the board. Taking all cards in the hand into account, could you draw something better? Sure, but could you also draw something worse? Absolutely. In which case I think there would be enough confidence for me to believe the hand could work out so I would feel inclined to keep it.
I was just playing 2HG and my partner kept his opening hand of 5x Plains, Marshal's Anthem, and Swell of Courage. Yell

We still won.
it would depend on the deck but universally if your going first and have two mana in starting hand you should be ok anything under that and ur taking a big risk, also taking a hand with three or four mana is a risk of getting mana flooded which happens alot in this game but its more about how comfortable you are with your deck. like last night i had a hand with 6 mana with a mirror (crosswinds) and i was like "hmmm" lol and finally said "hell il try it" and ended up winning because of the mirror. (its the game i described with the 1v1 aura deck in the another forum thread) :D
We need a new scenario to debate so here goes:


Grinning Malace:

Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Demigod of Revenge
Ashenmoor Gouger
Vexing Devil
Wrecking Ball


Here's the Problems: 
1. You can't play Ashenmoor Gouger until round 4 at the best.
2. Even though you only have 3 Lands in play by turn 3, you have actually removed 6 lands from your deck.  This greatly reduces the chances of getting the 4th and 5th that you will need for the Demigod.
3. Playing the Devil on turn 2, you still have no board presence because your opponent will just take 4 damage.
4. Will you even get the land you need to use your removal spell?  This is due to the same question asked on #2.


Edit:  With a deck only running 23 lands - If my math is right, you have slightly more than a 35% chance to draw a land on turn 4.  IF you haven't drawn one on turn 1-3.  If you did, you have 33% chance of getting land 5.  You actually have a higher chance of drawing a land on turn 1 and 2 than you do on turn 3 or 4. (37% and 36% respectively).

You're a lose cannon.

 

 

"I played 70 card decks before it was cool to play 70 card decks." -Random M:tG hipster

Sixty4half has it right, above, in that I get to see a detailed thought process. I'd like the thread to be full of posts like that, so I can apply the same line of thinking to my own hands. The whole '3 lands in play, but 6 out of the deck' is not something I'd have considered, but will from now on. Nice.
i try to have at least 2 land, or at least be able to cast 1 or 2 spells without drawing more land. One thing i hate is having an opening hand thats full of land :p (but that's better than a hand with no land)

~Your either my puppet or my matchstick~

color preferences (1st is fav and so on):

198732583 wrote:
Oh Ajani seems to like Elpheth's milk, meow.
I was just playing 2HG and my partner kept his opening hand of 5x Plains, Marshal's Anthem, and Swell of Courage.

We still won.


what's nice in 2HG is that you can have an aggro deck, and your partner can have a control deck, so that way you have the best of both worlds. take the lead from the very start (obviously control relies on aggro) and then once the game progresses enough the control keeps that lead (with the aggro relying on control)

~Your either my puppet or my matchstick~

color preferences (1st is fav and so on):

198732583 wrote:
Oh Ajani seems to like Elpheth's milk, meow.
Sixty4half has it right, above, in that I get to see a detailed thought process. I'd like the thread to be full of posts like that, so I can apply the same line of thinking to my own hands. The whole '3 lands in play, but 6 out of the deck' is not something I'd have considered, but will from now on. Nice.




It would be a different scenario if I gave you cards you could play on turn 2 and 3.  Say that hand had Typhoid Rats for 1 and Sootstoke Kindler or Goblin Deathraiders instead of the Ashenmoor and Vexing Devil.  Then the hand would probably be a keeper.  As well, if the Wrecking Ball was a Terminate instead.  But not being able to have any board presence until turn 4, and still not being able to block is a hard decision. 

Also, even if you do get a 4th land, what do you do on turn 4?  Play the Gouger or save your mana for the wrecking ball?

You're a lose cannon.

 

 

"I played 70 card decks before it was cool to play 70 card decks." -Random M:tG hipster

We need a new scenario to debate so here goes:


Grinning Malace:

Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Demigod of Revenge
Ashenmoor Gouger
Vexing Devil
Wrecking Ball





I think taking the mulligan is so obvious in this scenario that it shouldn't even be debated :P

WotC doesn't care about flavor. Their forum is the only place where an ORC can kill a troll...

Lost around 120 posts in the forum migration

Post #1000 on Feb 02, 2013

Post #2000 on Sep 04, 2013

We need a new scenario to debate so here goes:


Grinning Malace:

Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Demigod of Revenge
Ashenmoor Gouger
Vexing Devil
Wrecking Ball





I think taking the mulligan is so obvious in this scenario that it shouldn't even be debated :P



Really?  Is 35% that much different than 38% to draw another land?  Isn't Demigod the winning card in this deck more often than not?  You do atleast get to do 4 damage to your opponent on turn 2. 


:P

You're a lose cannon.

 

 

"I played 70 card decks before it was cool to play 70 card decks." -Random M:tG hipster

I thought of starting this thread to help identify keepable hands and hands that should be shipped back. Please post any hands that you are not sure on or you think are close. For example if it is a tough decision because of a shortage of mana we can do some maths to see if you will likely get there or not.

Please do not post obvious mulligans or keeps

so today I had a hand of

Swamp, Forest, yavimaya elder, Master of the wild hunt, Spiritmonger, Greater Good, Pernicious deed

would you keep this on the draw? How about on the play?



You have no 2 cmc cards, 3 cards that need 2 green.  While deed may be a good stall, I don't know if it will be enough.  You are not for sure getting a forest by turn 3, as it could just as easily be a swamp.  If you are playing a slow deck this MIGHT work, but I don't think I take this hand for anything.

Forest, Plains, Selesnya Evangel, Civic Wayfinder, Beastmaster Ascension, Ant Queen and Silklash Spider. Do you keep this hand or not?




Personally I would not take that hand. If you don't top deck a land (nevermind even getting mana fixed) you can get into trouble quick consicering that you still need ne more lands to even have the Civic Wayfinder help you out. You have to remember that there are player out there that run land destruction cards and if you are behind they will make sure you stay there. On top of that with that hand you need to be top decking both good low cmc cards as well as lands. I don't like it...



I disagree here.  Only a couple decks actually run land destroy and they are usually saved for creature destroy unless you are getting mana screwed in which case you are screwed anyhow.  You have only 1 2 cmc card, but in this case where you only need 1 type of any land to bring our wayfinder and find yourself at 4 land, this hand has a lot more potential than at first glance.  Plus you have different lands in a duel colored deck (always a +).  Unless you have a really high cmc heavy deck (which may be the case looking at the hand) I would not mulligan.

We need a new scenario to debate so here goes:


Grinning Malace:

Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Demigod of Revenge
Ashenmoor Gouger
Vexing Devil
Wrecking Ball


Here's the Problems: 
1. You can't play Ashenmoor Gouger until round 4 at the best.
2. Even though you only have 3 Lands in play by turn 3, you have actually removed 6 lands from your deck.  This greatly reduces the chances of getting the 4th and 5th that you will need for the Demigod.
3. Playing the Devil on turn 2, you still have no board presence because your opponent will just take 4 damage.
4. Will you even get the land you need to use your removal spell?  This is due to the same question asked on #2.


Edit:  With a deck only running 23 lands - If my math is right, you have slightly more than a 35% chance to draw a land on turn 4.  IF you haven't drawn one on turn 1-3.  If you did, you have 33% chance of getting land 5.  You actually have a higher chance of drawing a land on turn 1 and 2 than you do on turn 3 or 4. (37% and 36% respectively).



I disagree with a couple points.

1.  You can easily play Gouger on turn 3 if you draw a basic land by turn 3.  Which if you are drawing has close to 78% chance of happening, if ur first its closer to 64%.  Either way, you are more than likely to draw a land in 3 turns than not (even considering evolving wilds)

2.  While you have "removed" 6 lands, 3 of them were exchanged with basic lands, your chances of gaining a land within 3 turns and another within another 3 more turns (5 by turn 6) are still very close to the same, just slightly less now.  A demigod is best on turn 5, but it certainly isn't obsolete on turn 6.

3.  Playing Devil on your 1st or 2nd turn is generally a bad idea regardless (most ppl love to bring it out immediately, you have time...wait until they have to make a difficult choice, its 1 mana and has won me mid-late games).

4.  Chances are you will get your 4th land by the 3rd turn, let alone the 4th, and damn near for sure by the 5th turn.  Unless you have your deck stacked with high cmc cards, you are also likely another good lower costing card as well.  Your removal will be just as nice to have whether its on the 4th or 5th turn.

About your edit: You are obscuring the actual percents in your edit.  Every turn has a roughly 33% chance of drawing a land.  This doesn't change whether its your 1st draw or 12th draw (providing you didn't draw 12 lands, lol).  So you can always say "IF you dont draw a land in 2 turns its only about 33% chance you will get one on the third."  The fact is you have a 78% chance on the draw, 64% if playing to get a land by turn 3, whether its on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd turn.  When you get the first land in the first 3 turns doesn't matter, just that you get it period.  The percents are the same any way you spin it.

Thats my 2 cents.  Its still a tough choice, but with duel color decks, if I have 2 lands that are different (or a wild) and I have 2 or more playable 2 cmc cards I will keep it.  If I have 3 different colored lands and 2-3 2 & 3cmc costing cards I will also keep.  In this case you have 3 different lands and 2 lower cmc cards.  In duel colored decks you have to be a lot more careful about mulligans (both when to and when not to).  This being a duel colored deck is the deciding edge for me, I take this hand.  Again, a very tough choice either way.  Rarely do you get your "perfect" hand, so you have to choose wisely among the not so perfect hands.

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We need a new scenario to debate so here goes:


Grinning Malace:

Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Demigod of Revenge
Ashenmoor Gouger
Vexing Devil
Wrecking Ball


Here's the Problems: 
1. You can't play Ashenmoor Gouger until round 4 at the best.
2. Even though you only have 3 Lands in play by turn 3, you have actually removed 6 lands from your deck.  This greatly reduces the chances of getting the 4th and 5th that you will need for the Demigod.
3. Playing the Devil on turn 2, you still have no board presence because your opponent will just take 4 damage.
4. Will you even get the land you need to use your removal spell?  This is due to the same question asked on #2.


Edit:  With a deck only running 23 lands - If my math is right, you have slightly more than a 35% chance to draw a land on turn 4.  IF you haven't drawn one on turn 1-3.  If you did, you have 33% chance of getting land 5.  You actually have a higher chance of drawing a land on turn 1 and 2 than you do on turn 3 or 4. (37% and 36% respectively).



You're forgetting the most important thing: 0 defense. Your opponent can build up a force and continue lowering your life, since Vexing Devil will just go up in smoke, and Gouger can't block. Once you can finally use Wrecking Ball, your opponent likely has 3 creatures on the board pounding your life already, which means you're still left with facing 2 pounding your now significantly lowered life, not to mention that none of the creatures is probably something you'd want to Wrecking Ball anyway, as the best is yet to come. Gouger and Devil can deal tons of damage, but if your opponent deals more, you'll lose the race simple as that. You're top-decking from turn 1 already for something to turn this around.
About your edit: You are obscuring the actual percents in your edit.  Every turn has a roughly 33% chance of drawing a land.  This doesn't change whether its your 1st draw or 12th draw (providing you didn't draw 12 lands, lol).  So you can always say "IF you dont draw a land in 2 turns its only about 33% chance you will get one on the third."  The fact is you have a 78% chance on the draw, 64% if playing to get a land by turn 3, whether its on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd turn.  When you get the first land in the first 3 turns doesn't matter, just that you get it period.  The percents are the same any way you spin it.




No sir.  You are obscuring actual per turn percentages (or chances as you prefer to call it) to draw a land with PROBABILITY to draw a land.  Having a high probability to draw a land does not change the fact that you still only have 33% chance to draw a land on that turn.

Example of what I mean:  Say you have a 1% chance of getting a favorable outcome of something random.  Then you do that act 100 times.  You COULD say that I have a HIGH PROBABILITY of getting the favorable outcome.  But that doesn't change the fact that even on the 100th time I perform this action that I still only have a 1% chance of getting the favorable outcome.

You're a lose cannon.

 

 

"I played 70 card decks before it was cool to play 70 card decks." -Random M:tG hipster

We need a new scenario to debate so here goes:


Grinning Malace:

Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Evolving Wilds
Demigod of Revenge
Ashenmoor Gouger
Vexing Devil
Wrecking Ball





I think taking the mulligan is so obvious in this scenario that it shouldn't even be debated :P



Really?  Is 35% that much different than 38% to draw another land?  Isn't Demigod the winning card in this deck more often than not?  You do atleast get to do 4 damage to your opponent on turn 2. 


:P



The problem is that you need more than 1 land to play this hand. And even if you manage to get the 2 lands to play the Demigod, he won't win you the game alone. He's great in this deck because he oftens wins the game after you put the pressure on your opponent during the first turns. When your opponent has more than 15 life points left to spare, he's not that great. That probably would be the case with that hand.

EDIT: And let's not forget that the game gives us a FREE mulligan. People should be more aggressive with their mulligans because of that.

WotC doesn't care about flavor. Their forum is the only place where an ORC can kill a troll...

Lost around 120 posts in the forum migration

Post #1000 on Feb 02, 2013

Post #2000 on Sep 04, 2013



EDIT: And let's not forget that the game gives us a FREE mulligan. People should be more aggressive with their mulligans because of that.



Absolutely

You're a lose cannon.

 

 

"I played 70 card decks before it was cool to play 70 card decks." -Random M:tG hipster

About your edit: You are obscuring the actual percents in your edit.  Every turn has a roughly 33% chance of drawing a land.  This doesn't change whether its your 1st draw or 12th draw (providing you didn't draw 12 lands, lol).  So you can always say "IF you dont draw a land in 2 turns its only about 33% chance you will get one on the third."  The fact is you have a 78% chance on the draw, 64% if playing to get a land by turn 3, whether its on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd turn.  When you get the first land in the first 3 turns doesn't matter, just that you get it period.  The percents are the same any way you spin it.




No sir.  You are obscuring actual per turn percentages (or chances as you prefer to call it) to draw a land with PROBABILITY to draw a land.  Having a high probability to draw a land does not change the fact that you still only have 33% chance to draw a land on that turn.

Example of what I mean:  Say you have a 1% chance of getting a favorable outcome of something random.  Then you do that act 100 times.  You COULD say that I have a HIGH PROBABILITY of getting the favorable outcome.  But that doesn't change the fact that even on the 100th time I perform this action that I still only have a 1% chance of getting the favorable outcome.



I understand what you are saying, but YOU said IF you DONT get a land on turn 1 OR 2, you only have 33% chance of getting a land on turn 3.  While this is 100% correct, you can't just "throw out" rounds 1 and 2.  You are also no more or less likely to get a land on turn 3 than you are on turn 2 or 1.  If you really know a lot about Statistics and Probability as you are implying, you would also know that when you COMBINE 3 turns at 33% each, you will have (again, based on whether you are on the draw or playing) a 64% or 78% chance of drawing that land.  You can do the math, thats the numbers and the facts.  Now of course with every land u draw or don't draw the percents vary SLIGHTLY, but not enough to matter.  Again, do the math and you will see I am right.

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Steam Profile Name: Nebula

Swamp, Swamp, Swamp, Swamp, Murder, Grave Titan, Rune-Scarred Demon



I'd take a free mulligan here, either on play or on draw.  If I've used my free mulligan, then I think I'd keep it on the play and mulligan to 6 on the draw.  The problem with going second is that I'm too worried that I'll be close to dead by the time I can get Gravey out...

Mountain, Mountain, Searing Spear, Searing Spear, Sulfuric Vortex, Chandra's Outrage, Red Sun's Zenith



Again, I'll take the free mulligan here, either on play or on draw.  Generally I find that using Chandra effectively can be mana intensive and she doesn't do too well stuck at 2 lands.  I don't think I'd mulligan to 6 here though.