Problem with a Black Burn deck: mana and sideboard

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I've got two main problems with my deck: www.mtgvault.com/ViewDeck.aspx?DeckID=38...

1 - Average CMC is pretty low, so I was thinking that maybe I could put in the deck less than 24 lands, maybe 22 or even 20. I would prefer a mathematic answer cause I made this deck using excel. However an experience answer will be accepted too. Is there some math book about mana?

2 - It doesn't have a sideboard. I don't really get how it works (how can you put the sideboard cards in the deck if you don't know who are you going to play with?) and I don't really know how to make one. Could someone make an analysis of the weakness of this deck? Against which kind of decks I could easily lose? And could you also give me some card advice? I'm a beginner and I'm not able to understand the whole thing.

Thanks!
1.)  The deck actually isn't that cheap.  Also, the mana base has 4 lands that will always enter tapped, which requires you to run a few more lands to minimize that effect.

2.)  You put together a sideboard to deal with the typical decks you should expect to see.  In a generic Modern tournament, I'd expect to run into a fair amount of Tron, U/W/R Delver, U/W Control, RUG Delver, Storm, Birthing Pod combo and Affinity.  You need to pack some answers to those decks.  The sideboard would include these situational answers to the deck.

As for the deck itself, it looks really, really bad.  Everything has very little effect and it looks like it's just a very slow drain.  Slow life loss usually doesn't fair well when you're getting hit by a giant two mana beast or a flying Wild Nacatl from the start of a game.  You don't kill fast enough to avoid being killed by a lethal Grapeshot from a Storm deck.  Plus, the deck has pratically no removal, so you lose to the Splinter Twin/Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker combo decks.
1) well most of the prices I've seen are between 80-100$ and more ... however, do you think if there where only swamps and no Piranha Marsh, I could play with only 22 lands?

2) ok, I'll check them out. But again, how can I know which type of deck has the opponent? If  don't know it previously I ca't make the changes with the sideboard

I know that each card has very little effect, but I was thinking that all the cards are very fast and the little effects all together can grow each turn and create a big effect.
Correct me if I'm wrong:

- against a creature as Tarmogoyf I don't see the problem: if it's played in the first turns it won't be a strong card because in the garveyards there will be just few cards. if it's played later well, maybe it can be a problem, but i can always sacrifice a creature each time it attacks, and, if I'm lucky, in that moment maybe I control a blood artist and I deal 1 damage to the opponent. Plus with my deck the game is not supposed to last many turns

- against a flying Nacati maybe I can't do much, but the enemy obviously is not the only one that is attacking. With my deck I can deal damage each turn, cause each card has an effect that deals damage, and every turn the damage dealt will be greater, cause I'll have always more lands and spells  under my control. What I need maybe is an enchantment or artifact that lets me draw more cards to make the deck more effective

- i don't see how can be grapeshot fatal ... 1, 2 or 3 (3 is quite improbable) damage paying 2

-  i don't see the point of the last two cards also. The tokens created disappear each turn ...

Sorry if what I say seems stupid, but I'm a beginner, please explain me
1.) Cheap as in mana cost, not the cost of the cards.  In terms of money, the deck is a bargain.  That generally means it's not good because good cards cost money.

2.) You don't know what deck your exact opponent is playing.  That's why you can't "pre-sideboard" your deck.  You have to play one game in the dark, then get to make the changes from your sideboard.  Doing otherwise is cheating, and will get you disqualified and potentially banned from the game.  You have to prepare the sideboard ahead of time in anticipation of what decks you expect to be at the tournament and then hope your analysis was correct and the cards you've chosen are powerful enough answers to improve the deck.

A big part of being a good tournament player is being able to quickly recognize what type of deck your opponent is playing.  For instance, I play a lot of Legacy and follow the format pretty closely.  I can generally narrow down the opponent's deck to a couple of options turn 1, even if the only thing they do is play a land and pass the turn.  I'm probably 95% to know their archetype by turn 2.  Being able to do that means I can spend the rest of the game narrowing down the exact list the oppponent is playing. and can immediately start forming a sideboard plan and figureing out how I should be playing the first game.

Tarmogoyf:  You have to understand that decks that play Goyf are built to make it good.  It's not uncommon to have a 3/4 Goyf come down on turn 2, and that's just the opponent's graveyard.  It'll likely have land, instant, creature and/or sorcery.  The card gets out of hand very fast and puts you on a very fast clock very early.

Delver:  Yes, you also get to attack.  However, the decks that play Delver also play a TON of disruption.  They're likely got 6-8 copies of counterspells, so your early plays will not resolve.  They've got anywhere from 4-12 cheap removal spells (Path to Exile, Lightning Bolt, Lightning Helix), so any creature that does resolve dies very soon after.  They will get a lot of damage through, and your Blood Artists won't do much work because they will get removed very soon.  Basically, the opponent will be dealing you minimum 3 damage a turn, and likely only be taking 1-2.  It wins that race.

Card draw:  Probably a very bad idea.  Most actual card draw in Modern is very slow or has a drawback.  Actual card draw means you actually net cards, not just trade one card for a different (which is called a "cantrip").  The best card draw engine in Modern is Dark Confidant, but he's $50 a copy and you have to have a deck that plans on killing the opponent really fast so the life loss doesn't matter.

Grapeshot:  Look at the decklists for the Strom combo.  Here's a series of plays they could do about turn 3 with 4 cards in hand: Desperate Ritual, Seething Song, Manamorphose, Manamorphose, Gitaxian Probe, Serum Visions, Desperate Ritual, Seething Song, Desperate Ritual, Past in Flames, flashback all of the spells played before, Grapeshot with 19 copies.  The deck is entirely mana (rituals, lands), card draw (Probe, Vision, Manamorphose) and kill conditions (Past in Flames, Grapeshot, Empty the Warrens).  The deck could kill you on turn 1 or 2 if the "good" rituals wasn't banned.

Splinter Twin/Kiki-Jiki:  They might disapper, but when you combine it with Deceiver Exarch, Restoration Angel (Kiki-Jiki only), Village Bell-Ringer or Pestermite, you can create an infinite number of tokens and swing for the win that turn.  A dedicated U/R Splinter Twin deck will be able to do this on turn 4 (end of your turn 3, flash in Exarch, untap, play Twin, make infinite copies and win).  A G/W/U/r Birthing Pod deck can do it on turn 3-4 with a very long Pod chain.
1) oh come on, 66% of the cards are of 1 CMC, and considering the budget ...

I redid the deck, look at it please: community.wizards.com/go/thread/view/758...
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