My Jace deck just beat goblins with 1 mana and he had a Piledriver out on the second turn...

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I wish I was recording this one but the game before this file is saving...(that was a good one too, came back from the brink against a life deck)....This guy was running 60 cards too I think....

I start a game with 1 mana but I have a Chancellor of the Spires that I later discard,a Jace's Phantasm and a Thought Scour. So the game starts with him auto-milling 7 cards. On my first turn I do not draw a land and hit him with the Thought Scour and draw a non-land card. On his second turn he gets out a Piledrive and I am *gulp* but I cast a Phantasm because I figure the swarm is about to begin and know he might get foolish. Remember that he has 9 cards in his graveyard. What does he do? He uses a GEMPALM on my Phantasm....YES! LOLLOL (I just learned this rule on here two days ago I think with the Serra Ascendant)....

His card of course goes in the graveyard for ten total before my creature is actually killed so it becomes a 5/5 and he can't kill it. I now swing for 5 and again next turn and draw a Phantasm which I cast instead of unsummoning Krenko, Mob Boss before he can use it....

My turn....

IMAGE(http://i996.photobucket.com/albums/af90/icanhasgif/97ecd60d83d2630e5142f319d34fb448.jpg)

His Turn

IMAGE(http://i996.photobucket.com/albums/af90/icanhasgif/0e2ceb35cfd496a60d7d9e967ad407e2.jpg)

My Turn

IMAGE(http://i996.photobucket.com/albums/af90/icanhasgif/27ee16b31e039cd78a76935c0fe36bf5.jpg)


Sweetest win yet!
You took a one land hand just for Chancellor?

Splat hit the nail on the head in another thread when he said "Fortune favors the bold." Doesn't get much luckier than that.
Close your eyes. Fly away. In the land where dreams, all are true. IMAGE(http://i1202.photobucket.com/albums/bb374/distilledpoizn/StupidJefferson.jpg)
You took a one land hand just for Chancellor? Splat hit the nail on the head in another thread when he said "Fortune favors the bold." Doesn't get much luckier than that.



My thinking: I'm drawing a card on my first turn  as I go second and I have an additional card draw for my first turn. By the time I get to my second turn I will have drawn 3 cards already so I am assuming I will have land to play and I had a crippling chill at three mana which would get me another draw.

Essentially I have 54 cards left in my deck and 24 are land and 30 are creature/sorcery/artifacts. At three draws before turn two and four draws at turn three, assuming no additional draws, I expect to be able to play the crippling chill. Even if I stall for a turn a very soon to be 5/5 phantasm should help...

So while I took a risk, if you think about it, its not really that big of a risk. Odds are VERY good I should have been able to at least play four mana by turn 5 with that hand. I play the odds but unfortunately, I was still stuck at one....I'd estimate getting to 3 mana on turn 4 at > 90% of the time with that hand...and 4 mana at turn 5 about 75% of the time.....but those are just rough guesses...
You took a one land hand just for Chancellor?


He already mulliganed down to 5 cards, right? Assuming he's playing a 60 card deck and the first picture shows the 4th turn he has only one card in the grave. Killa is on the draw. After the 3rd mulligan I would consider taking a hand containing Island, Phantasm, Scour, Chancellor and Counterspell/Unsummon as well as it's a hand where you at least see a chance to win by bringing out an early online Phantasm and protect it after your second land drop. Further Mulliganing down to 4 wouldn't increase your chances imo.

You took a one land hand just for Chancellor?


He already mulliganed down to 5 cards, right? Assuming he's playing a 60 card deck and the first picture shows the 4th turn he has only one card in the grave. Killa is on the draw. After the 3rd mulligan I would consider taking a hand containing Island, Phantasm, Scour, Chancellor and Counterspell/Unsummon as well as it's a hand where you at least see a chance to win by bringing out an early online Phantasm and protect it after your second land drop. Further Mulliganing down to 4 wouldn't increase your chances imo.




No, I did not mulligan once. Running 61 cards.

In the first pic there there are 49 cards in my library, 7 in my hand and 3 permanants (1 land 2 creatures) and two cards in my graveyard.....Chancellor (discarded) and a Thought Scour (cast first turn).
Odds of drawing a land on turn one (going second) is 44.4% (24/54), I cast the thought scour and if my first card isn't a land the odds of a land on my first turn with my thought scour pull become 45.3% (24/53).

So I am looking at two draws turn one at 44.4 and 45.3% respectively of drawing a land on turn one. I am at 90% to draw a land and 90% to draw another by turn 3 and the crippling chill gives me another 90% at turn 4.

If I draw one land turn one out of the two draws I take then on turn 2 my odds of drawing a land are 43.4% (23/53) and if I do Crippling chill could help get another 41.5% (22/53), if not, on turn three I have another 44.2% (23/52) chance of drawing a land and using crippling chill.....On turns two and three I could snatch an Adept for a further card draw or another Thought Scour. I have not factored those in but they also increase my odds slightly of getting land.

Taking that hand isn't really a gamble at all I'd say.

Its good strategy.

With that being said, I was unlucky with the mana pull but got lucky against the goblins. Without drawing the second phantasm I unsummon his Krenko two turns in a row and keep swinging with the 5/5 until something gives either way...
Well done I guess but let's face it, the goblin player had no 1 drop, made a huge misplay and tried to stick a non haste Krenko against Jace. On top of that you had 2 5/5 fliers on turn 3 I wouldn't say this is amazing that you won
Well done I guess but let's face it, the goblin player had no 1 drop, made a huge misplay and tried to stick a non haste Krenko against Jace. On top of that you had 2 5/5 fliers on turn 3 I wouldn't say this is amazing that you won



I got the second flier on turn 4. and I don't think a 1 drop Goblin helps him win. I would have played Krenko as well if I were him unless I could have killed the flier somehow with a goblin grenade.... At the time I had one flier out and he was going for the piledriver win in two turns....just turned out I got another Phantasm but it didn't matter because the 5/5 would have kept swinging no matter what and I had two unsummons. I don't think Krenko,is a bad play there. He was trying to beef his Piledriver to win before my flier killed him. His piledriver is swinging for 15 itself the turn after I won plus the other 7 goblins. My deck just turned out faster with one mana. But yeah, his Gempalm mistake was the game. He took the bait, hook, line and sinker
So I am looking at two draws turn one at 44.4 and 45.3% respectively of drawing a land on turn one. I am at 90% to draw a land and 90% to draw another by turn 3 and the crippling chill gives me another 90% at turn 4.



I don't know how you do your chance calculations, but they're not additive, they're multiplicative. If you draw two cards on turn 1, you have the following odds, assuming perfect randomization:

19.3% chance to draw two lands in succession (44.4% on first draw, 43.4% on second draw)
50.3% chance to draw a land and a non-land (44.4% land first, 56.6% non-land second, added to 55.6% non-land first and 45.3% land second)
30.4% chance to draw two non-lands (55.6% on first draw, 54.7% on second draw)

So, you have only 69.6% chance to have drawn one or more lands after turn 1, not 90% as you implied.

You can calculate the odds on further draws in the same way, but it branches off really fast. By turn four, you would have drawn a total of 6 cards, which would yield a distribution of a non-zero chance for each of these possibilities:
- 6 Lands
- 5 Lands, 1 non-Land
- 4 Lands, 2 non-Lands
- 3 Lands, 3 non-Lands
- 2 Lands, 4 non-Lands
- 1 Land, 5 non-Lands
- 6 non-Lands

No, I didn't calculate those individual odds for you ;).
Killa he has a lot of cards in hand, if his best play was Krenko he kept a bad hand with no 1 or 3 drop, if he had other options I'm sure they would be better than Krenko vs Jace. Jace has too many answers for Krenko.

Its been a while since doing probability…I appear to have missed a whole step before applying the addition rule…..Let me do it out to refresh myself….


Total number of cards in the deck            = 24 Land + 30 NonLand  = 54


Total No. of Possible Choices  = Number of ways in which the two cards can be drawn from the total 54


(54*53) / (2*1) = 2862/2  = 1436 ways in which the cards could be drawn over 2 draws…


24*23/2 is the number of ways Land can be drawn over two draws….= 276


Probability of occurrence of two lands is #Favorable choices (=276) / Total number of outcomes (= 1436) = 276/1436=   ~19% chance of two lands…


Odds of drawing  at least one land in two draws can be accomplished by drawing 2 Lands or By drawing 1 land and one Non Land. We add these two together to get the total…


Number of favorable choices for a Land and non land over 2 draws is 24*30 = 720


For just drawing two land  is 24. Adding 720 +24 = 744.


P of at least 1 land = favorable over total number… = 744 / 1436 = ~52%


52+19 = 71%


So yeah, I skipped a step…..but still at 71% to draw a land turn one and on turn 2 and if I don’t draw a land turn one the odds go up ongettng a land. My odds aren’t as good as I initially thought but they still aren’t that bad. Its not a bad play at all considering the draw I have…..though at 71% starting with two lands would have been safer….because out of 10 games:


2 times I draw two land, 3 times I draw two non-land and 5 times I draw a mix of land and non-land. Seven of those outcomes are favorable to me and if I have a very solid starting hand its not a bad play at all.


Also, don’t forget I actually have 3 draws coming by turn two, so while the odds of me drawing a land are ~70% turn one the odds of me playing a second land on turn two are much better than that as with three draws I have an 8% chance of drawing three land.  Odds of drawing at least one land in three draws can be accomplished by drawing 3 lands (8%), 2 Lands or By drawing 1 land and two Non Land. I’m tired of doing math at this point though….I could have expected to stall around turn 3 for a single turn until I got the crippling chill out….But anyways, going second, by my third turn I expect to have drawn 4 cards whereas my opponent has drawn only two. Starting with 1-2 mana in a deck with an extremely ow mana curve (11 total 1 drops, 7 two drops, 8 three drops,) and significant card draw is not a bad play...

Congrats. This guy doesn't seem like he kept a great goblin hand though. No turn 1 play. Poor gempalm play turn 3. Turn 4 Krenko with no haste on field. This is why people's "I beat goblin with Jace 3/5 times" tales don't really matter. He's playing slow goblins (but yet one that still would have beat you if a) he didn't make a bone head move and b) you didn't top deck a lot of great stuff that all cost 1 mana) where until turn 5 he's still swinging a 1/2 prot blue creature (and one that he didn't even know you were playing blue when he kept his hand presumably). That's not goblins. I don't know what that is, but that is not goblins' style. His turn 5 would have been big against you and his turn 6 even bigger (probably game ending) but in reality goblins should just about always have the game over by then anyway.

You should consider posting things like this in the "Best of my wins ever" thread instead of starting your own one too, probably.
Congrats. This guy doesn't seem like he kept a great goblin hand though. No turn 1 play. Poor gempalm play turn 3. Turn 4 Krenko with no haste on field. This is why people's "I beat goblin with Jace 3/5 times" tales don't really matter. He's playing slow goblins (but yet one that still would have beat you if a) he didn't make a bone head move and b) you didn't top deck a lot of great stuff that all cost 1 mana) where until turn 5 he's still swinging a 1/2 prot blue creature (and one that he didn't even know you were playing blue when he kept his hand presumably). That's not goblins. I don't know what that is, but that is not goblins' style. His turn 5 would have been big against you and his turn 6 even bigger (probably game ending) but in reality goblins should just about always have the game over by then anyway.

You should consider posting things like this in the "Best of my wins ever" thread instead of starting your own one too, probably.



I considered it but it contrasted so well with the piledriver suck it thread I just had to create a new one

I might post some videos in here too instead of clogging up the Dream Puppets thread....

I also didn't topdeck the unsummon and considering I have 24 land and 11 total 1 mana drops, topdecking playable cards in the first 4-5 turns with one mana isn't really luck here.
That was a legit keep.  He was on the play and had a thought scour, Chancellor and Phantasm.  I wouldn't mulligan that either. 
On the draw that's a keep but on the play its close. Vs goblins its a keep because you need to take a chance but without knowing what im playing I mull that. Lets face it without topdecking the second phantasm you lose to most decks average draws.
On the draw that's a keep but on the play its close. Vs goblins its a keep because you need to take a chance but without knowing what im playing I mull that. Lets face it without topdecking the second phantasm you lose to most decks average draws.



Assuming I have one mana turn 5 and my opponent has 5 I expect to lose >95% of theg games I play.

The point, from our discussions above is that I have EXTREMELY good chances of playing a land on turn 2 (3 card draws) and decent chances of rolling out a third land on turn 3 (4 total draws). Also, against slower decks the two unsummons would help me stall them for a turn or two while I did draw mana. Drop a 4 or 5 mana creature and guess what, its going back into your hand. Cast it again next turn, guess what, its getting returned to sender. Then on the next turn you can play it and something else I assume but they will have summoning sickness. Unless I am playing an aggro PK or goblins with a good draw I was fun.  I could have held off many of the other decks...Plus I had a Chancellor coming at 5 mana....but obvious in two turns something like a Howl of the Night Pack devistates me....but I could have recovered from a lot of situations...
This is the game I played before the goblin game last night........

I figured out how to add a voiceover and this game was my first test of that.......

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIYqZxErJX8&feat...

How's my virgin commentary? I made one mistake, there are no 2/2 fliers :-o

I don't really disagree with keeping the hand. I don't fully agree with it either, but with that many 1 mana plays, including instant speed cantrip it's not horrible.

I rarely keep any hand that doesn't have at least 3 mana with few exceptions. I'll keep 2 mana hands if I have significant 2 mana plays, especially if they draw/cantrip, like Elvish Visionary and Sign in Blood, and then 3 mana plays.

1 mana is a lot more scary. Plus for whatever erason it seems whenever I mulligan a hand with stuff I like but no mana, my mulligan has more land and keeps 1-3 of the cards I really wanted anyway. It seems like mulligans are never full mulligans in this game. Like some cards don't even move, they just sort of highlight and stay in place as the rest of your hand re-shuffles.

This is the game I played before the goblin game last night........

I figured out how to add a voiceover and this game was my first test of that.......

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIYqZxErJX8&feat...

How's my virgin commentary? I made one mistake, there are no 2/2 fliers :-o




Your commentary is decent and it was interesting to watch an ipad game.  Your opponent was not that great though, which made it a little boring to watch after the first 5 turns or so.  
This is the game I played before the goblin game last night........

I figured out how to add a voiceover and this game was my first test of that.......

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIYqZxErJX8&feat...

How's my virgin commentary? I made one mistake, there are no 2/2 fliers :-o




Your commentary is decent and it was interesting to watch an ipad game.  Your opponent was not that great though, which made it a little boring to watch after the first 5 turns or so.  



Trust me, it was boring to play too. Once I cloned his 2/2 and he was topdecking I knew it was over if I got a mana one of the next two turns.... I just had to begin the long task of reducing his life to 0

I hope I wasn't ranking on him too bad. I was just trying to point out his less than optimal build and cards. I rarely meet good opponents on here, kind of sucks. I was thinking or hooking my xbox back up but if all I will be playing is goblins and OD I am going to tailor fit my builds to that and magic will lose its variety and fun for me. So there is no point but at the same time, beating up on 70 card deck users on the ipad has kind of worn out its welcome at this point too...


Those iPad players are so good! Will you be in Indianapolis for the Grand Prix? I'm betting on you!
Those iPad players are so good! Will you be in Indianapolis for the Grand Prix? I'm betting on you!



No need to be snoody about it. Magic is about fun. If you main goal was proving who is smarter/the better thinker/strategizer then obviously you should be playing Chess and no other game. The vast majority of all strategy games people play are poor imitations of the one true game of skill. I can't go to the grand prix of magic, not because of a lack on intellect, but because until five minutes ago I didn't kno what a sideboard was.

This is a game where winning involves chance. The better players minimize the chance factor as best as they can but it is still there in every game you play. They will win more in the long run because of their skill but again, so will more $$$ to buy more cards and be able to build a better deck than an opponent.
I can't go to the grand prix of magic, not because of a lack on intellect, but because until five minutes ago I didn't kno what a sideboard was.



:-)

I still don't know what one is, but I figure it's probably cards you can swap into  your deck based on what your opponent is playing.  Can you scout out the opposition in these tournaments?
No doubt you know what you're doing skill wise, but a lot of luck fell to get this win. Although, hats off for beating Goblins with Dreampuppets while he had a GP and Krenko out.

Well done. 
I can't go to the grand prix of magic, not because of a lack on intellect, but because until five minutes ago I didn't kno what a sideboard was.



:-)

I still don't know what one is, but I figure it's probably cards you can swap into  your deck based on what your opponent is playing.  Can you scout out the opposition in these tournaments?




When you play an opponent in a game say the best out of 3 you must use the same deck all three games. You run your 60 card deck and bring 15 additional cards to hold off on the side. At the end of the first game you can swap in and out cards but your sideboard must always start with and have no more than 15 cards in it. Sideboards are optional but must have 15 cards at all times if used.

So say you play a deck and need some artifact removal or you have protection cards against a color he/she is not using, I suppose it would be wise to adjust your deck before the second game. You just want to probably include multiple copies of a few situational cards that way certain threats can be circumvented.

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.
That is correct. It should also be noted, that your deck must be exactly 60 cards to use a sideboard. You cannot have a 65 card deck, and use a sideboard. You can have a 60+ card deck to a tournament, it is "legal" to gimp yourself.

Or be weird... Battle of Wits

Also, at the beginning of each match against an opponent, your deck and sideboard must be exactly as you entered the deck into the tournament. All sideboard cards in the sideboard, and the 60 card deck in the deck pile. If you fail to do this, you forfeit the round. (if you get caught, but pro players are very good at spotting typical sideboard cards and screaming "DECK CHECK!" at a nearby judge)

As you said, after the first round, you can swap in sideboard cards to better your matchup.

The 60/15 card rule is of course not in effect when drafting - there you have your deck minimum size set to 40, you can go above if you wish, and your sideboard are the rest of the drafted cards you have + any amount of land needed.

In EDH/Commander, your deck must be 100 cards exactly and all cards but basic lands are 1ofs. No sideboard as far as I know.
That is correct. It should also be noted, that your deck must be exactly 60 cards to use a sideboard. You cannot have a 65 card deck, and use a sideboard. You can have a 60+ card deck to a tournament, it is "legal" to gimp yourself.

Or be weird... Battle of Wits




Dude, I have one of those. Should I just burn it or what? I was looking at it scratching my head...
That is correct. It should also be noted, that your deck must be exactly 60 cards to use a sideboard. You cannot have a 65 card deck, and use a sideboard. You can have a 60+ card deck to a tournament, it is "legal" to gimp yourself.


Which, if anyone would like to know the *TRUE* reason why the pros all use 60 cards and ONLY 60 cards, this is why. Not because "60 card decks get their good cards faster than 61", but because in tournaments 60 cards gives you the option to swap out less effective cards for more effective cards based on what you see in your opponent's deck in game 1.

Kind of a huge thing. 60 vs 61 in DotP does not mean the same thing as 60 vs. 61 in real Magic.
(Wish I'd thought of that for all those 60 vs. 61 discussions. This fact never came up...)

That is correct. It should also be noted, that your deck must be exactly 60 cards to use a sideboard. You cannot have a 65 card deck, and use a sideboard. You can have a 60+ card deck to a tournament, it is "legal" to gimp yourself.

Or be weird... Battle of Wits




Dude, I have one of those. Should I just burn it or what? I was looking at it scratching my head...

I wouldn't burn it - it's has a unique gimmicky thing. Save it, 5 years from now, something might arrise that gives it fantastic entertainment value.

I kept all the cards with "flip a coin" conditions on them, and laughed hysterically once I got a playset of Krark's Thumb, Mirror Gallery, Fiery Gambit, Karplusan Minotaur and Impulsive Maneuvers - it is NOT a competitive deck, but I just love flipping that coin 20 times during my turn. Oh, and shooting a creature for 3, opponent for 6, untapping all my lands and drawing nine cards. With a Minotaur in play, I get to shoot for another 3 or potentially chance it and going for the kill directly. It is a hilarious deck around the kitchen table.

I also made the Ante deck. It is really easy to win with, however, almost all the cards are banned in tournaments.

Ante rules: when you start a magic match, and your deck contains 1 or more cards with Ante, you must ask your opponent if you play for Ante. (shuffle your decks, reveal the top card from both decks, these cards are now out of the game, and the prize is those 2 cards. To keep.) Opponent ALWAYS says no (he might loose an expensive card), so you turn to the other part of the Ante rules. All cards with Ante, must then be removed from your deck before you start. The deck contains 52 cards with Ante, and a turn 1 kill combo with counter backup. Since you will always have 7/8 cards in hand, you nearly always win.

Or other weird things.

I kept all the cards with "flip a coin" conditions on them, and laughed hysterically once I got a playset of Krark's Thumb, Mirror Gallery, Fiery Gambit, Karplusan Minotaur and Impulsive Maneuvers - it is NOT a competitive deck, but I just love flipping that coin 20 times during my turn. Oh, and shooting a creature for 3, opponent for 6, untapping all my lands and drawing nine cards. With a Minotaur in play, I get to shoot for another 3 or potentially chance it and going for the kill directly. It is a hilarious deck around the kitchen table.



Why not Chance Encounter too? And Goblin Bomb

EDIT: I'm actually not sure how the goblin bomb interacts with karak's or chance encounter since it's not strictly "Flip a coin" win/lose but I assume it's the same? There's also Mana Crypt for free, every turn flips, but I think thjose costa lot.

I kept all the cards with "flip a coin" conditions on them, and laughed hysterically once I got a playset of Krark's Thumb, Mirror Gallery, Fiery Gambit, Karplusan Minotaur and Impulsive Maneuvers - it is NOT a competitive deck, but I just love flipping that coin 20 times during my turn. Oh, and shooting a creature for 3, opponent for 6, untapping all my lands and drawing nine cards. With a Minotaur in play, I get to shoot for another 3 or potentially chance it and going for the kill directly. It is a hilarious deck around the kitchen table.



Why not Chance Encounter too? And Goblin Bomb

EDIT: I'm actually not sure how the goblin bomb interacts with karak's or chance encounter since it's not strictly "Flip a coin" win/lose but I assume it's the same? There's also Mana Crypt for free, every turn flips, but I think thjose costa lot.


When using Goblin Bomb with Krark's Thumb you flip two coins and choose the one you want.
For Chance Encounter, Goblin Bomb's text was reworded to "if you win the flip".
Killa and I play very simular builds with DP.


I kept a 1 land hand with 2 Phantasms 2 Chancellors, 1 Mind Control, 1 Thought Scour. I got to go first. Was pretty much same results. I won on 4th turn against a good goblin deck. I just had the better hand.


I've also won GG by milling/counter pile drivers and or Body Double Reckless One's from the GY. Still lose to GG more often than win but my build squares up against it much better than the old ones I use to use.