I am Baja and this thread is meant to define a method of estimating or determining the probability of a few harder to evaluate D&D statistics such as but not limited to:

Proning enemies

CA

Enemies Adjacent to the defender

Coup de Grace

For purposes of this thread, only standard encounters will be considered.

From the DMG, it will analyze the encounter templates:

BC - Battlefield Control

CT - Commander and Troops

DL - Double Line

WP - WolfPack

The Classes and Races will be limited to the Player's Handbook.

The characters will be limited to heroic for creation, but all books can be included.

Themes will not be included.

The battlemap total size will be limited to 50x50

Half the squares you can't interact with, a quarter are cover, and laying prone grants superior cover.

Party size will be exactly 5 members.

No two characters will have the same class.

Optional Rules of Thumb (this part could use some additions like dpr per party member, average round length per template):

mimimum of 50% accuracy

non-elites have less than 100-70hp at lv 10

Elites have 250-170Hp (cave bear L6 and dire bear L11)

The Binomial Distibution is useful for determining the number of successes per trial.

The calculation requires determining the probability of the success for a single trial.

The Poisson Distribution is useful for determining the number of occurrences over time.

Current Goal:

First we are starting with the probabability of proning against the BC template.

Determine the probability of a single success for the party to knock an enemy prone in the first round of combat against BC.

And model how likely continued proning will be.

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Proning

If it is just a power to prone, it would be ~50% likely, but if it is an encounter power then that is just for one time.

Early estimate of proning: three attempts per encounter with 50% accuracy

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CA

Party members can move to flank on the battlefield, and classes like the Rogue can attack from hiding for CA.

Early estimate of CA: One enemy always granting CA to flankers

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Enemies adjacent to the defender

The defender can move to an enemy, and can mark enemies. Some powers can move the enemies to the defenders.

Early estimate of enemies adjacent to the defender: three from round 2 until the third to last round

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Coup de Grace

The wizard has sleep and the rogue has knockout.

Early estimate of coup de grace: 25% likely to happen once, one power attempted to yield helpless and another to perform coup de grace

Proning enemies

CA

Enemies Adjacent to the defender

Coup de Grace

For purposes of this thread, only standard encounters will be considered.

From the DMG, it will analyze the encounter templates:

BC - Battlefield Control

CT - Commander and Troops

DL - Double Line

WP - WolfPack

The Classes and Races will be limited to the Player's Handbook.

The characters will be limited to heroic for creation, but all books can be included.

Themes will not be included.

The battlemap total size will be limited to 50x50

Half the squares you can't interact with, a quarter are cover, and laying prone grants superior cover.

Party size will be exactly 5 members.

No two characters will have the same class.

Optional Rules of Thumb (this part could use some additions like dpr per party member, average round length per template):

mimimum of 50% accuracy

non-elites have less than 100-70hp at lv 10

Elites have 250-170Hp (cave bear L6 and dire bear L11)

The Binomial Distibution is useful for determining the number of successes per trial.

The calculation requires determining the probability of the success for a single trial.

The Poisson Distribution is useful for determining the number of occurrences over time.

Current Goal:

First we are starting with the probabability of proning against the BC template.

Determine the probability of a single success for the party to knock an enemy prone in the first round of combat against BC.

And model how likely continued proning will be.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Proning

If it is just a power to prone, it would be ~50% likely, but if it is an encounter power then that is just for one time.

Early estimate of proning: three attempts per encounter with 50% accuracy

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CA

Party members can move to flank on the battlefield, and classes like the Rogue can attack from hiding for CA.

Early estimate of CA: One enemy always granting CA to flankers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Enemies adjacent to the defender

The defender can move to an enemy, and can mark enemies. Some powers can move the enemies to the defenders.

Early estimate of enemies adjacent to the defender: three from round 2 until the third to last round

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Coup de Grace

The wizard has sleep and the rogue has knockout.

Early estimate of coup de grace: 25% likely to happen once, one power attempted to yield helpless and another to perform coup de grace