when cracking packs online what is the chance of cracking a specific uncommon

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forgive me if this is in the wrong forum but wasnt sure what this falls under i was wondering what formula mtgo uses to calculate the chances of opening a specific uncommon when cracking packs


i ask cause ive cracked atleast 30 packs of fifth dawn over the past week or 2, probaly more and havent opened a single eternal witness?  
Well, fifth dawn had 55 uncommons, at 3 per pack that means about a 5.4% chance of opening a specific uncommon in one pack.

Which means you've opened a below average number of eternal witnesses if you've cracked 30 packs.

 EDIT:  If I've done my math correctly (and it's been a while) opening 30 packs you can expect to have 0 Eternal Witnesses (or any other perticular uncommon) 18.9% of the time.

(I got here by taking 1 - 0.054 = 0.946 ^ 30)
DCI Certified Level 2 Judge
Reminds me if you crack the correct number of packs at the same time do you still get a complete set?
Or did that change when they fixed drafting?
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But why would ANYbody open 30 packs of 5th dawn?
Eternal Witness is over $5.  Fifth Dawn packs are just over $3.

Plus three rares that are worth more than the cost of the packs: Vedalken Shackles at $30, Engineered Explosives at $20, and Crucible at $9.

Still, as this poster has shown, it's still more economical to just buy the singles.
Wow. No one alerting the OP with a small warning?!

OP was asking of the  the chances of opening A specific uncommon when cracking packs ...


Yes,yes. he asked about the formula WOTC uses... ....well. Whatever formula they use does not include the factoring ONE specific(!)


DO NOT
(!) buy boosters to find 'one spesific' card!!! -Just buy it wherever for even an overprice. 
Judging by  The_Extractor's join date I assume they already know that. Also certain older sets can be almost profiatble to crack. I think one of the med sets actually passed that level a while back.

also it looks like 5th dawn is fairly close to even depending how he got the packs in the first place.

I've bought the cards and made a deck Now how do I win at this?

I think official word is that opening packs at the same time no longer gives results that follow a print run.

There was some change around Time Spiral or Lorwyn, now it works like this:

* A large number of packs are periodically generated according to the print run, and stored on the server.
* When a pack is opened, one of those stored packs is taken out of the pool at random, and provided as the contents of the opened pack.
I think official word is that opening packs at the same time no longer gives results that follow a print run.

There was some change around Time Spiral or Lorwyn, now it works like this:

* A large number of packs are periodically generated according to the print run, and stored on the server.
* When a pack is opened, one of those stored packs is taken out of the pool at random, and provided as the contents of the opened pack.

It was during Shards of Alara

I think if you open a very large amount, like 1000 packs or something, you will get close to what you might expect if it followed a print run (aka, if there are 100 rares in the set, you'd get 9-10 complete sets).  However, I'm not exactly sure, the best person to answer would be heath or another dealer

My forever unfinished blog of the 2010 MTGO Community Cup: if you're ever bored...
I think if you open a very large amount, like 1000 packs or something, you will get close to what you might expect if it followed a print run (aka, if there are 100 rares in the set, you'd get 9-10 complete sets).  However, I'm not exactly sure, the best person to answer would be heath or another dealer



Yeah, that sounds like a good base for creating a formula to figure out the chances of getting one particular uncommon. hrmm. In endangering myself of sounding sarcastic or vile, which i by no means try to be; I'll stick with my last sentence in that previous post. Don't crack a booster in the hopes of one particular card, wether it is a common, uncommon, rare or mythical rare or foil or not.
I understand that OP is experienced enough to know this. I am not ignoring his anciennity in this forum.
His question is valid.

I just think the answer to that question is like asking someone for the formula of winning in the lotto.
-that should be simple there are just 34 numbers (or whatever, depending on country).
All you need is six or seven correct numbers to win first prize... -can't be that hard to figure out, right? Mmmmh...


Anyway, if someone is good at statistics that someone would perhaps be able to explain better than me why opening a booster in the hunt for one spesific uncommon is a bad idea.
(ref: I am not a scientist, ergo I am not obliged to state that the earth is round. -I 'know it is' but I don't have the papers on being intelligent to state the fact that it is, etc...) 

I don't have the numbers to plug in to demonstrate for 5th dawn or any set, but here's how you figure out whether or not it's worth it to crack packs:

Take the average value of the commons and multiply by 10 (there are 10 commons per pack).

Then add the average value of the uncommons multiplied by 3 (there are 3 uncommons per pack).

Then add the average value of a rare (there is 1 rare per pack).

Total those up, and if your total is less than the value of the sealed pack it's not worth opening.  It's highly unusual for it to be worth opening boosters. 
DCI Certified Level 2 Judge
(ref: I am not a scientist, ergo I am not obliged to state that the earth is round. -I 'know it is' but I don't have the papers on being intelligent to state the fact that it is, etc...)



Actually it isn't. But it is round enough for most practical purposes.
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The chance of opening at least one copy of a particular uncommon in any pack is simply 3 / X where X is the number of different uncommons in the set (for DKA it would be 3/44 or just under 7 percent). Actually, the Innistrad block skews this somewhat because of the doublefaced cards which have their own slot, but it's close enough for rule-of-thumb.

But to see that it is bad to hunt like that, you should turn it around.

What is the expected amount of packs you must crack to find one specific uncommon? You are expected to crack 15. That is 60 bucks for an uncommon. Let's be generous and let you resell the rest at 15 tix total - still 45 for an uncommon.

What is the most expensive uncommon in the set? Much cheaper.
Free Speech
Free speech is the right to speak your mind without government censorship and without fear of extralegal retaliation like harassment or violence. That’s all! Free speech doesn’t include the right to speak your mind on any forum anywhere. The government may not prevent you from speaking, but private parties, like blog owners or corporations, aren’t required to let you use their property as your platform. Free speech doesn’t include the right to be believed or to be taken seriously. People may mock, ridicule or laugh at what you say, or they may reject it outright. Free speech doesn’t include the right to be listened to. People who don’t desire to hear your opinion can hang up on you, block you on social media, change the channel, close the browser tab. Free speech doesn’t give you the right to bombard people with harassing messages or otherwise force them to pay attention to you against their will. And free speech doesn’t include the right to suffer no consequences whatsoever for your expressed opinions.
I was bored. Using a well known online card trader, and only counting cards over $1.
The average value of an opened pack of 5th dawn is a bit over $1.78.
The value of an unopened pack is $3.25.
You might get lucky with foils and you might be able to get a bit more selling the bulk value stuff.
Eternal witness is actually the 4th most valuable card in the set at $5.58

I've bought the cards and made a deck Now how do I win at this?

(ref: I am not a scientist, ergo I am not obliged to state that the earth is round. -I 'know it is' but I don't have the papers on being intelligent to state the fact that it is, etc...)



Actually it isn't. But it is round enough for most practical purposes.


Aside from the fact that there is no such thing as a naturally occuring perfectly spherical object (that we know of), when people say that the earth is round they don't generally mean like a perfect sphere. They generally mean for practical purposes. Nitpicking matters when there is an error sometimes. Nitpicking a commonly accepted usage is just wrong, imho.

Winter.Wolf

I don't have the numbers to plug in to demonstrate for 5th dawn or any set, but here's how you figure out whether or not it's worth it to crack packs:

Take the average value of the commons and multiply by 10 (there are 10 commons per pack).

Then add the average value of the uncommons multiplied by 3 (there are 3 uncommons per pack).

Then add the average value of a rare (there is 1 rare per pack).

Total those up, and if your total is less than the value of the sealed pack it's not worth opening.  It's highly unusual for it to be worth opening boosters. 



And if you do find a pack that is worth more opened, that won't last long as this is usually self-correcting.

Winter.Wolf

(ref: I am not a scientist, ergo I am not obliged to state that the earth is round. -I 'know it is' but I don't have the papers on being intelligent to state the fact that it is, etc...)



Actually it isn't. But it is round enough for most practical purposes.


Aside from the fact that there is no such thing as a naturally occuring perfectly spherical object (that we know of), when people say that the earth is round they don't generally mean like a perfect sphere. They generally mean for practical purposes. Nitpicking matters when there is an error sometimes. Nitpicking a commonly accepted usage is just wrong, imho.



I wasn't nitpicking. I was agreeing. Neither of us was actually talking about the earth's roundness, but using that as a metaphor. In my case for the accuracy of our math.
Free Speech
Free speech is the right to speak your mind without government censorship and without fear of extralegal retaliation like harassment or violence. That’s all! Free speech doesn’t include the right to speak your mind on any forum anywhere. The government may not prevent you from speaking, but private parties, like blog owners or corporations, aren’t required to let you use their property as your platform. Free speech doesn’t include the right to be believed or to be taken seriously. People may mock, ridicule or laugh at what you say, or they may reject it outright. Free speech doesn’t include the right to be listened to. People who don’t desire to hear your opinion can hang up on you, block you on social media, change the channel, close the browser tab. Free speech doesn’t give you the right to bombard people with harassing messages or otherwise force them to pay attention to you against their will. And free speech doesn’t include the right to suffer no consequences whatsoever for your expressed opinions.
hmm it seems after opening around 15 more packs since my last post i managed to open a vedalken shackles, explosives, and 2 eternal witnesses(finally D i dont have the exact number of packs i opened i realize that would be alot more helpfull but it has 2 be atleast 15ish