02/14/2011 LI: "Lessons from Pro Tour Dark Ascension"

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This thread is for discussion of this week's Limited Information, which goes live Tuesday morning on magicthegathering.com.

I had to admit. I laughed my arse off of the Lost in the Woods list..

And dat smile that went with it.
Gotta love them Forest decks...
Sorry, best match ever is probably Maher vs Davis, Chicago 1999, where Davis became the first person to go 5-0 in a final and lose the match.

Alternatively, the Finkel vs  Maher final in...Worlds, I think? was also pretty impressive.

Kibler vs Finkel had some great bits.  For example, I liked when Brian baited out double Mana Leak with his Slagstorm in order to clear the way for his Inferno Titan the following turn.  But it was followed by a massive game-state confusion and it ended off-camera with a one-of Celestial Purge topdeck from Jon on the last turn it could save him.  Wolf-token error aside, I'm not crazy about any game where good play is outshined by lucky draw.


(By contrast, had Jon intentionaly let a Titan go to save his counters for spells, counting on Ponders to find him a Celestial Purge for the permanent,  that would have been a fine show of prioritizing.  But that's not what happened.)


The great match was Tom Martell vs Samuele Estratti in Round 8.  If you look here at Twitch.tv's full coverage, the game starts around 7:25.  During the game you get to hear the first telling of the "Lost in the Woods" story.   Toward the end we here an absolutely great line from Martell, one Magic players will be repeating for ages.


But the amazing play comes from Estratti at 7:35:30.  It's a pseudo-bluff I won't spoil.  What's really amusing about it is that in the booth, both BDM and Sheldon Menery go "well that seems like a mistake".  And then after we see the mistake Martell had been tricked into doing, they say "that makes sense.  Great Magic players operate on this whole other level."  


The coverage was really great this past weekend, and I did enjoy the top 8 matches.  But it cracks me up that one of the best Jedi mind tricks ever happened while the camera was watching and neither commentator understood what they were seeing.

If you're on MTGO check out the Free Events via PDCMagic and Gatherling.

Other games you should try:
DC Universe Online - action-based MMO.  Free to play.  Surprisingly well-designed combat and classes.

Planetside 2 - Free to play MMO-meets-FPS and the first shooter I've liked in ages.
Simunomics - Free-to-play economy simulation game.

Sam Black's deck is showing Paul Mackinnon's instead. Care to fix?
Hey Steve, there was a guy who played the Lost in the Woods deck in an earlier round of that draft and ACTUALLY WON.
The coverage made it sound like Neeman decided to try it after he heard about the other guy who won with it.

Maybe it was Neeman who they were talking about, but still he won at least once. :O
Sorry, I dont understand... why was Neeman playing with 45 cards!?
Sam Black's deck is showing Paul Mackinnon's instead. Care to fix?


I'd like to see it, too.
Sorry, I dont understand... why was Neeman playing with 45 cards!?



Most people use decks with 40 cards.  Those five extra cards help ensure that he has more cards in his deck than an opponent and won't lose if the opponent has one or two cards that return their own stuff to the library.
IMAGE(http://pwp.wizards.com/1205820039/Scorecards/Landscape.png)
quick question! would creatures with lifelink gain life from indestructible creatures?
 
quick question! would creatures with lifelink gain life from indestructible creatures?
 



Yes.  The damage is still dealt, the opposing creature just isn't destroyed from it.


However, against a creature with protection you wouldn't gain life because the damage is prevented.

If you're on MTGO check out the Free Events via PDCMagic and Gatherling.

Other games you should try:
DC Universe Online - action-based MMO.  Free to play.  Surprisingly well-designed combat and classes.

Planetside 2 - Free to play MMO-meets-FPS and the first shooter I've liked in ages.
Simunomics - Free-to-play economy simulation game.

quick question! would creatures with lifelink gain life from indestructible creatures?
 



Yes.  The damage is still dealt, the opposing creature just isn't destroyed from it.


However, against a creature with protection you wouldn't gain life because the damage is prevented.


thankx
 
Sorry, I dont understand... why was Neeman playing with 45 cards!?



Most people use decks with 40 cards.  Those five extra cards help ensure that he has more cards in his deck than an opponent and won't lose if the opponent has one or two cards that return their own stuff to the library.



But Lost in the woods puts the forests you reveal on the bottom of your library, there you'll have the extra cards. Playing with 45 cards will reduce your chances of getting lost in the woods in first hands or after the mulligans. There must be another reason... :\


For one thing, maybe to make sure you have enough. If your opponent has any milling, then you could wind up with fewer cards in your library than them. Sure, you wouldn't play this deck against a milling deck at all, but you might not think of them using Bloodgift Demon or Harrowing Journey on you, you never know what they might sideboard in, etc. Also, it might matter at the very end. If you and your opponent have the same number of cards in your library, then you'll run out of cards on the same turn (assuming no mulligans or milling or acceleration, etc.), and on that turn he can finally attack with every creature he has and kill you.

My first thought on playing that deck was "I'd call a judge, that must count as delay of game." OK, not really, but it would be incredibly annoying. I'd probably fold. It's not playing unfairly, though, because anyone should have SOME way to destroy an enchantment, at least in their sideboard, right?

And by now I've been thinking about building around such a deck. With all the mana you'll have, maybe put in one Island and an Increasing Confusion? Maybe more islands, so you can counter spells that might remove your enchantment or kill you without creatures attacking? Maybe one Mountain and Devil's Play? Maybe a Dawntreader Elk, to get the enchantment out earlier? Obviously, means that some attacks might get through, but still...
The Lost in the Woods deck is the best Limited story I've ever read.
While a very cool deck idea, the fundamental flaw for Neeman's deck is the times he will never see Lost in the Woods. He will have to mulligan every time he sees all forests. Even if he could win from even a single card, "getting there" from a few or a single card in hand isn't incredibly likely. I believe the chance of Lost in the Woods being in his opening hand is around 49.3 % (adding a little extra for each drawstep, naturally), so it isn't even likely that a game will be played, all things considered. His "real deck" must have been a real stinker for him to try to pull off something like that. Also, dilluting the deck is never a good idea. Taking damage in order to set up the "combo" is necessary, since you lock your opponent out of the victory through attacking, but if you dillute your deck with even a single card, the single creature that gets through here and there will kill you. Unless you get super lucky and end up with Lost in the Woods AND that extra card in your opening hand. I could see this "deck" being used in a FNM draft deck, but then only for the sick brags if you actually beat someone. I just couldn't see anyone play this in a PT. (By the way, Neeman went 4-1 after the standard portion, so he could have entered day 2 with a single win in the draft portion. It must have been quite a terrible deck he had to begin with, since Lost in the Woods is basically a coinflip to see if it's in hand, and then giving your opponent all his cards to see if there's just a singleton able to break the stalemate.
I've tried testing with the article's opening hand simulator. (From the link in the article's decklist.)

I kept mulliganing until I saw Lost in the Woods. If I mulled to 1 and still didn't see one, I kept drawing cards to see if I draw a Lost in the Woods by turn 5-ish.

But the chance of success seemed really low - unless there's some bug with the hand simulator so that the last card in the list (Lost in the Woods) appears more infrequently than other cards. 

Am I doing something wrong?


Goblin Artisans - A Magic Design Blog by GDS2 Contestants and Collaborators
A deck with 44 Forests and 1 Lost in the Woods has a 7/45 chance of drawing the Lost in the Woods in the opening 7.  38/45*6/45 is an additional 11.26% chance to draw it on the mulligan to 6.  0.7319*5/45 is an additional 8.13% chance to draw it on the mulligan to 5.  Continuing the calculation, it looks like there's only a 48.31% chance of drawing the Lost in the Woods.  That's not a risk I'd want to take, especially because you've probably only seen half your opponent's deck, so you don't know if he has a main deck answer to the enchantment, let alone a sideboard answer.

It might be an interesting strategy for online play, if you're going to game 3 and your opponent doesn't have much time left on his clock.
Oh man!  That Lost in the Woods deck is just too funny!

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From Mark Rosewater's Tumblr: the0uroboros asked: How in the same set can we have a hexproof, unsacrificable(not a word) creature AND a land that makes it uncounterable. How does this lead to interactive play? I believe I’m able to play my creature and you have to deal with it is much more interactive than you counter my creature.

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Post #777

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MaRo: One of the classic R&D stories happened during a Scars of Mirrodin draft. Erik Lauer was sitting to my right (meaning that he passed to me in the first and third packs). At the end of the draft, Erik was upset because I was in his colors (black-green). He said, "Didn't you see the signals? I went into black-green in pack one." I replied, "Didn't you see my signals? I started drafting infect six drafts ago."

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MaRo: I redesigned him while the effect was on the stack.

Spoilers for the lazy:
The great match was Tom Martell vs Samuele Estratti in Round 8 . . . Toward the end we here an absolutely great line from Martell, one Magic players will be repeating for ages.


Show
"I played this game so badly . . . maaaybe worse than you did." - Tom Martell

But the amazing play comes from Estratti at 7:35:30.  It's a pseudo-bluff I won't spoil.  What's really amusing about it is that in the booth, both BDM and Sheldon Menery go "well that seems like a mistake".  And then after we see the mistake Martell had been tricked into doing, they say "that makes sense.  Great Magic players operate on this whole other level." 


Show
Estratti plays Moment of Heroism preblocks on his 5 power attacker, with Martell at 8 life, then starts to tap another two, representing a second Moment; Estratti then untaps, and starts shaking his head as if he had misplayed. Martell first says hes going to take 7, then reconsiders, and blocks with his Beguiler of Wills that had been controlling the game up to that point. Estratti didn't have the second Moment, bluffing the kill, and is able to take out the Beguiler that had been up to that point stopping him from playing out any more creatures.

The coverage was really great this past weekend, and I did enjoy the top 8 matches.


Unfortunately I didn't get to watch sunday, but I watched a good bit of friday and some of saturday. There weren't too many surprises as far as coverage quality went; BDM and Sheldon are absolutely amazing, while Rich Hagon is almost impossible to enjoy. Seeing him bash Rashad while sharing the booth with him was just painful, and not even remotely close to the fun banter we got with BDM, Sheldon, and Zac Hill (probably the coverage highlight of friday and saturday).
An additional note about the math analysis on lost in the woods deck; you also get the chance to draw it during play; if you assume that your opponent kills you on turn 6 if you do nothing, you get to draw 5 cards, so your mulligan to 1 actually has a 39/45 chance of drawing into your lock, giving a total chance of 54.2% of succeeded.

You then have to factor in your chance of your opponent killing you before turn 5.  That one is fairly deck specific, but most draft decks won't be able to.  Then you have to factor in the chances of your opponent having an out, based on what you saw game 1 or games 1 and 2, and then you have to compare this to what you think your chances of winning with your real deck are.

I can definitely see situations where I would board into this.  The ideal situation would be when playing against someone better than you, where you had a long game 1 where you got to see most of your opponent's deck and know they have no outs main, and where you have no enchantments in your real deck worth boarding against.
Is it certain that Neeman had only one in his deck? If he had two, his odds of getting it between his opening hand and first mulligan become almost 50%.
Two would be too risky...unless you happen to have two in your opening hand (very unlikely), there's about a 50% chance that the second one is revealed before you draw it.  Since you're not playing removal, your opponent could well kill you in that one window of opportunity that second Lost in the Woods gave him. 
Playing any card other than a single copy of lost in the woods is too dangerous.  You are likely to die from getting it revealed too many times before you draw it even if your opponent just plays creatures and attacks every turn, but even worse is that if your opponent is smart enough to count the cards in your deck, he will know exactly where the other card is once you are forced to reveal it a single time (since it goes to the bottom). He can then choose the number of creatures he attacks with such that you will never draw it, and his creatures can kill you by revealing the other card once every (cards remaining in your deck)/(creatures your opponent has in play) turns and getting in with a creature.