Infect - Should we expect Blazing Shoal to be banned?

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When Modern was announced for the pro tour, it was stated they wanted the games to last past turn 3, hence the bannings of many combo cards. This got me wondering, will Blazing Shoal be banned to keep the status quo?
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Probably not.  When you consider that just about any counterspell or removal spell stops the combo, you see that there are plenty of answers out there.  Sure, the infect combo runs some disruption of their own, but then they're not likely comboing on turn 3.
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I don't think it should be, but I would not be surprised if it is.  Hypergenesis has a lot of the same issues that mono detailed, but they still banned it just because they don't like turn 3 kills, especially if it's an easy to assemble combo. 
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what worry's me more then over reacting ban hammering is look at what was showing up as the top decks for daily MTGO modern events and what was played this pro tour. As the event drew near more and more decks on MTGO became the decks that placed in the top 16. 
I don't expect it to be , and I don't expect wizards to add anything to the banned list until at least next summer. Smallpox decks need a chance to shine, and the combo is so fragile it needs a much closer look.

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Blazing Shoal doesn't do anything particularly amazing, even in Sam Black's deck, the entire win-con could be foiled by Fog, any black or red creature removal, counterspells, or damage prevention. I think the usage of it is fantastic, but the card itself isn't broken (and banning Progenitus wouldn't "fix" it, because the format has 4 Red cards with a CMC of 10). I think it's best to suffice that it is a good card, but not a broken one.
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I think Shoal is bannable, since it's so easy to combo with, and a lot of the pro's we were chatting with at the PT agreed.

The issue is, if you run removal, you may as well scoop to post decks. I watched Kiblers Zoo deck V David Williams Post deck, and literally, David had to draw cold every turn in order to lose, whilst Kibler drew pretty much the perfect hand against him and was still one card away from losing constantly.

I expect the ban list to be tinkered with a lot.
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Out of curiosity, how threatening to the format is 12-Post? More specifically, what is the likelihood that some vital to piece to 12-Post decks (like Cloudpost) will be banned? I ask because I run a 12-Post deck and invested heavily (bought four Primeval Titan and a Green Sun's Zenith) in it, so if there is a high probability they'll nerf 12-Post I'd like to sell of my Vesuva before they plummet in value.
Out of curiosity, how threatening to the format is 12-Post? More specifically, what is the likelihood that some vital to piece to 12-Post decks (like Cloudpost) will be banned? I ask because I run a 12-Post deck and invested heavily (bought four Primeval Titan and a Green Sun's Zenith) in it, so if there is a high probability they'll nerf 12-Post I'd like to sell of my Vesuva before they plummet in value.


I'm betting that Vesuva drops to ~$20 whether anything is banned or not. It's WAY too high right now, especially after the abyssmal performance of the deck at the PT.

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That's probably because 12-post IS this format's equivalent of Valakut... the "endgame" deck that keeps mid-range and most control from having a place in the metagame.

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10+ 18 point or more cloudpost lists are plenty, and it made up a significant portion of the field, a lot of people brought anti cloudpost decks purely for this reason. Cloudpost destroys Zoo the majority of the time, and unless you pack a ton of hate, takes out most things. Also, there was one in the top 8...

It is much like Valakut was, except 1-2 turns quicker, and rather than hitting you for 12-18 damage when it goes off first, it kills all your permanents and hits you for 15. Through the breach is a very powerful card, and basically, there were many inferior Cloudpost builds, but even so, they managed to do well. When people all start running through the breach builds, then it warps the format even more.

I'd be very surprised if cloudpost/emrakul was not banned, since it's more damaging to the format than Valakut would have been.
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Emrakul seems like the biggest issue, since most removal options become dead against emrakul, but not the other Big Eldrazi.

I'm very interested in what LaPille or some other official source has to say about the fact that 2 combo decks exist that are capable of kills/degenerate board states by turn 2. My fear is that they are going to take a wait-and-see approach, which is exactly why standard took such a nose dive in regards to the caw-blade debacle.

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The top deck purely on modern rounds was Goblin Storm, which is able to kill on turn one(Which I did to an affinity player after he spilt his whole hand).
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The non-infect Shoal list I've been testing is surprisingly fast and consistent, winning by turn 2 about 60% of the time (after mulligans) and turn one maybe 20%. The thing is, that's really, really hard to disrupt, especially on the draw. You're only choices are Pact (no way to pay for it turn 1 in Modern) and Disupting Shoal (pitching a twelve-cost blue card? Really?). On the draw you can Turn 1 discard or leave mana for Spell Pierce/Mana Leak or removal, but that's it really.

Also, I haven't played against any Post yet, but other Shoal players tell me it's a nearly unloseable matchup.
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Edit: Ignore the bit about Disrupting Shoal. I type faster than I think -_-
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Emrakul seems like the biggest issue, since most removal options become dead against emrakul, but not the other Big Eldrazi.

I'm very interested in what LaPille or some other official source has to say about the fact that 2 combo decks exist that are capable of kills/degenerate board states by turn 2. My fear is that they are going to take a wait-and-see approach, which is exactly why standard took such a nose dive in regards to the caw-blade debacle.



Emrakul made me rediscover Hit // Run.  Stops him cold and punishes your opponent for it HARD.

Blazing shoal surely deserves to be banned. The combo fizzles to removal, yeah, but most of the deck revolve around protecting it and the permission it uses is hardly useful against it. It's true that there are no real free counters here, so the logical consequence is that there must not be free "I win" cards.

On another topic, I fail to see why 12post deserve to be banned. A pro tour is the most reliable evidence for power level, and 12post failed miserably. If it were truly broken, instead of watching people beating it with vastly different decks we would have seen pros fighting to have the best version of the mirror match. No one on their senses is going to pick up their Vesuvas right now that the meta has hated them out; furthermore, it provides a good service for the metagame as it guarantees that we won't ever see a Cawblade disaster again. Unban Misstep, Mystic, Visions and Jace, we'll be always ready to annihilate them for six.
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Blazing Shoal should probably be banned, yes.  Inkmoth Nexus is another possibility but I doubt they'd hit a recent card in Standard.  I'd say ban Blazing Shoal / Rite of Flame / Emrakul - 12 post still exists but you can use removal against it, then unban Ancestral Vision.

Re Hit / Run hype: note the line on Emrakul that says "take another turn."  And "Annihilator 6."  And the fact that most 12-post decks play Overgrown Battlement, Wall of Roots, or both.  It's fine if you have a dominating board position and can afford to leave 3 mana up constantly, and have somehow removed 12post's walls...   but yeah.  That's a lot to ask for.

Well... I think I need to eat some crow about my initial post on the subject. Blazing Shoal isn't overpowered by itself, but the interaction with Inkmoth Nexus and Blighted Agent is undeniable, which makes it a matter of banning 2 unbroken cards, or banning 1 unbroken card which have too much interaction, and since Blazing Shoal costs a 2 cards, but no mana, it's the prime suspect. It's actually pretty funny because if someone would have told me that the Shoals and Pacts would become a new format's menace because they don't need mana, I would have been very skeptical.


However, I don't think removing Shoal or Cloudpost/Vesuva and unbanning the likes of Jitte is going to put the format on a better path, nor do I think Preordain or Ritual bannings is going to make it any better, nor do I think that the Storm mechanic is what will make a mess of it. But that's a different discussion which should probably be carried out in it's own thread after all of the whining and moaning a'la Levin are done.

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After reading this post I'm wandering if some of you could give me some lotto numbers maybe, cause that is just uncanny to read after the updated banned list.
The bans were a little bizarre... but I think it might be interesting to have WotC stomp on a format repeatedly until the tiers are flattened out from a triad on top. I'd like to see 10 competitive options....

Keep stomping... this is kinda fun.

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