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This is my semi-finalized proposal for skills and skill training.  It’s based on the concept of bounded accuracy.  In this system, a character would gain the ability to roll additional dice as a representation of training to determine success of a task.  An untrained character would get one die; a trained individual would get two dice.  Additional training would grant three (skilled), four (Expert) and five (Master) dice.  To represent the “trained-only” feature of previous editions, this system will assign a difficulty rating to each check.  Most checks would be accomplishable with no training; they would be represented by a rating of zero.  A “trained-only” task would have a rating of one or higher.  The total number of dice rolled by the character is determined by taking the character’s training tier and subtracting the check’s difficulty rating. 

Here’s my write-up:

Skill training is represented by tiers.  An unskilled person possesses a training tier of one.  A trained individual possesses a training tier of two.  As a character progresses, additional tiers of training will become available but caps at five.  Each tier represents the number of time a player can potentially roll a 1d20 for a check.  Some skills will require training; this is represented by a check’s difficulty rating.  This rating will range from zero to four.  Most skill checks will have a rating of zero.  Most trained-only skill checks will have a rating of one.  To find the total number of dice to roll, the player must subtract his or her training tier from the difficulty rating. 

In addition to a difficulty rating, each check will have a difficulty class.  This represents the minimum roll required to successfully complete the task.  Here is a list of each difficulty class: Trivial (7), Easy (10), Moderate (13), Hard (16), Very Hard (19), Formidable (22) and Nearly Impossible (25). 

For example, climbing a wall can be a hard task that requires no training.  This would be represented by a DC 16 check with a rating of zero based off of the strength score.  An untrained character would make a strength check with 1d20 against a DC of 16.  A trained character would make a strength check with 2d20 (taking the highest result) against a DC of 16. 

On the other hand, picking a complex lock can be a very hard task that requires training.  This would be represented by a DC 19 check with a rating of one based off of the character’s dexterity score.  An untrained character cannot make the check; he or she would roll 0d20 (training tier of one – difficulty rating of one = 0).  A trained character would roll 1d20 (tier two – rating one = one) against a DC of 19.  A character with additional tier three training would roll 2d20 (tier three – rating one = two) against a DC of 19.

Advantage/Disadvantage would operate normally for checks made with one die (1d20); however, it would add an additional die or subtract a die for rolls involving multiple dice.  A check involving 3d20 (take the highest) would become 4d20 with advantage and 2d20 with disadvantage.

Finally, I’ll display the success rate based on the number of dice rolled against each DC.  This table assumes that the character has a +5 to attribute.

DC   1d20 2d20     3d20     4d20     5d20     6d20
07 - 95%  99.75% 99.99% 99.99% 99.99% 99.99%*
10 - 80%  96.00% 99.20% 99.84% 99.97% 99.99%
13 - 65%  87.75% 95.71% 98.50% 99.47% 99.82%
16 - 50%  75.00% 87.50% 93.75% 96.88% 98.44%
19 - 35%  57.75% 72.54% 82.15% 88.40% 92.46%
22 - 20%  36.00% 48.80% 59.04% 67.23% 73.79%
25 - 05%  09.75% 14.26% 18.55% 22.62% 26.49%
* 3 dice or higher actually brings the percentage up 100% with a precision of 2 decimal points.

I've already posted something similar to this; however, this does represent a refinement of my original idea. 

There was some discussion on the Wizard versus Fighter on the DDN forums over the past...  forever.  The developers have stated that they will go with a mixture of at-will spells and daily spell slots.  Some people fear that this will make the wizard overpowered in the DPR arena; however, I think they are wrong in their assumptions. 
For argument sakes, I parsed some numbers to illustrate how the wizard's DPR can be kept in check in relation to the fighter.  I'll operate off of the following premise: the fighter should be the best (well, one of the best) for single target DPR, and the wizard should be an excellent utility that shines against multiple targets.  With that in mind, I'm going to look at the potential single target DPR for each class.  The goal is to create damage guidelines that keep the wizard from overtaking the fighter in this arena.

First, I broke the fighter and the wizard down by level.  The DPR numbers for the fighter are derived from the average value of a 1d8 and 2d6 weapon wielding fighter.  It includes the critical damage gained by level and expertise progression of the current fighter.  I removed the strength bonus from the fighter; this is due to some hints from the developer.  In addition, the fighter's DPR is calculated off of a 65% hit chance.  I can adjust these number if it is required at a later date.

Second, I changed the wizard's spell progression in the playtest package.  The reader can figure out the progression from the table below.  The main reason for this change is due to the developer's statement that wizard's will be getting three slots per spell level in the future packet.  In addition, the numbers for the at-will spells do scale; however, I kept them at 75% of the fighter's DPR at that level.  The wizard is capable of the nova phenomenon and a lower at-will setting takes this into account.  In addition, spells are rated at 75% of their actual spell power.  This is due to saving throws.  Half of the time an opponent will take full damage; the other half of the time, the opponent will take half damage.  This equals to 75% of the entire time.  In addition, I removed lower level spells from the higher level casters.  If the spell's DPR is lower than the at-will DPR, it would lower the overall DPR of the wizard.  This would not give an accurate assessment.

Third, I created two tables.  The first table details the math.  It's results told me what numbers to plug into the second table. 

The first table is broken down by damage (minimum (1d8) and maximum (2d6) of the fighter is here with the wizard at 75% of the fighter), rounds designate the average number of rounds for an adventuring day (based on statements by the developers), the average details the average of the minimum and maximum damage, the total amount of damage details the amount of average damage dealt during the adventuring day, the difference represents the difference between the fighter and wizard, the number slots is the maximum number of effective spell slots of a wizard (I assumed six (three for each of the higest level spells), the second average details how much more damage the slots need to do for to get the wizard's damage up to the fighter, the high level average adds the at-will and average difference to details how much damage a high level spell needs to do, the calculated DPR is a checksum to make sure that the damage adds up over the adventuring day and the final column details how many slots the actual wizard should have based on a three slots per spell level.  Here's the breakdown:



This just gave me a general idea of how to scale each spell level.  Based on these numbers, I came up with: 9.5 for 1st level spells, 13.5 for 2nd, 20.5 for 3rd, 22.5 for 4th and 31.5 for 5th.  I rounded number to the nearest half for this.  For example, fifth level spells actually came out to 31.666667.  31.5 was just cleaner.

This lead me to create a second table.  In this table, I tested the interaction of the spell slot progression and the estimated damage potential of each spell level.  To make this happen, I assumed a 20 round adventuring day.  Here's the breakdown:



The wizard came out consistently lower than the fighter in single target DPR using this model.  Now, the wizard could come out significantly ahead in the area of effect (AoE) DPR; however, that is part of my premise.   As long as WotC uses the estimated DPR and keeps the spell levels relatively in check (as I did here), their proposed changes could work.  Only time will tell if they actually do the math though. 

Now there are other issues that involve the wizard and the wizard's utility spells; however, that is a different issue.

EDIT:  I'm adding my proposal along with suggested damage die here:

Unlike my normal blog entries, this blog has very little to with mathematics.  This is my take on the fighter and isn’t based on anything from the developers.  I’m just throwing some general concepts onto a sheet of paper.  It’s not completely balanced; however, it does represent a direction that I would like to see the fighter go…

Fighter

Attributes: +1 to Strength, Dexterity or Constitution
Starting Hit Points: 1d12 + your Constitution modifier
Armor and Shield Proficiencies: All armor and shields
Weapon Proficiencies: All weapons

Progression:

Level      Weapon Attack           ED        Class Features
1             +3                          1d4        Expertise, Fighting Style
2             +3                          1d4        Maneuver
3             +3                          1d6
4             +4                          1d6        Maneuver
5             +4                          2d6       
6             +4                          2d6        Extra Attack
7             +5                          2d8       
8             +5                          2d8        Maneuver
9             +5                          3d8       
10           +6                          3d8        Manuever

Class Features:

Hit Dice: 1d12 per Fighter Level
Hit points: 1d12 (7) + your Constitution modifier per Fighter Level

Level 1: Expertise

The write-up is in the playtest package.  I reduced the ED due to a personal belief that 3d10 at level is more difficult to balance at this point.  ED replaces BAB in the previous editions; giving a fighter in 3^rd edition a BAB progression of +2 would unbalance the game.  I think the ED progression is high at this point.

Level 1: Fighting styles

At first level, the character gains three maneuvers: deadly strike, parry and another maneuver detailed in each fighting style.  In addition, the character gains a special ability associated with the fighting style.

Duelist:

Riposte: A duelist is trained in drawing an opponent into attacking an opening, parrying the attack and counter-attacking the opponent.  Once per day, the duelist can reduce the damage of an incoming attack by spending his or her expertise dice as a reaction.  Roll the spent expertise dice and reduce the attack by that value.  As a part of this action, the duelist can make a melee weapon attack the attacker.  On a successful hit, the duelist deals normal damage and adds the parried damage amount to the attack.

The duelist can make additional attempts to riposte each day.  This requires an Intelligence or Wisdom check against a DC 25 (nearly impossible).  Each successful attempt after the first usage increases the DC by three.  This DC is lowered as the character advances in level.  The character can spend expertise die to aid this roll.  Each die spent eliminates disadvantage or grants an additional roll.  For example, spending one expertise die allows the character to roll 2d20 and take the highest roll.

Level       DC           Maneuver
1             25           Spring Attack
2             22           Tumbling Attack
4             22           Glancing Blow
8             19           Lightning Reflexes
10           19           Opportunist

Protector:

Hold the Line: A protector can hold the line once per day as an attack action or part of an attack action.  The character cannot move once this power is activated and any movement will end this power.  This power persists until the character moves, loses consciousness or voluntarily ends the power.  Once activated, the character can negate any force movement effect by spending an expertise die.  In addition, the character can stop the movement of a creature within reach by making a weapon attack roll.  On a hit, the creature’s movement is stopped and takes one base expertise die in damage without any additional damage modifiers.  This damage does not expend the expertise die.  If player expends one expertise die, the creature takes an additional expertise die in damage and is knocked prone if the creature is smaller than Large size.  The character can stop as many creatures as his or her constitution modifier or the number of expertise dice possessed by the character, whichever is higher.  These attacks do not cost a reaction, and the character can utilize his reaction normally.

The protector can attempt to hold the line more than once per day.  Additional attempts to hold the line require a Constitution check against a DC of 25 (nearly impossible).  Each successful attempt after the first usage increases the DC by three.  This DC is lowered as the character advances in level.  The character can spend expertise die to aid this roll.  Each die spent eliminates disadvantage or grants an additional roll.  For example, spending one expertise die allows the character to roll 2d20 and take the highest roll.

Level       DC           Maneuver
1             25           Protect
2             22           Mighty Exertion
4             22           Composed Attack
8             19           Great Fortitude
10           19           Opportunist

Sharpshooter

Surgical Strike: A sharpshooter carefully aim and hit his or her target.  Once per day, the sharpshooter can make a ranged attacked that automatically hits his or her target.  The character makes a wisdom attribute check.  If the check beats a DC that is three less than the DC indicated on the sharpshooter table, the attack is considered a critical hit.  This roll can be modified by the character’s expertise dice.  For each die spent, the character can roll an additional 1d20; however, he or she only takes the highest die roll for the attribute check.

The sharpshooter can attempt this attack more than once per day.  Additional attempts of surgical strike require a Wisdom check against a DC of 25 (nearly impossible).  Each successful attempt after the first usage increases the DC by three.  This DC is lowered as the character advances in level.  The character can spend expertise die to aid this roll.  Each die spent eliminates disadvantage or grants an additional roll.  For example, spending one expertise die allows the character to roll 2d20 and take the highest roll.

Level       DC           Maneuver
1             25           Precise Shot
2             22           Spring Attack
4             22           Composed Attack
8             19           Danger Sense
10           19           Volley

Slayer:

Brutal Assault: A slayer can muster an overpowering attack that overwhelms his or her opponent once per day.  As part of a successful melee weapon attack with a Strength-based weapon, the slayer can activate this ability to make the attack an automatic critical.  In addition, the creature is knocked prone if it is smaller than Large.

A slayer can attempt to use this ability more than once per day.  Additional attempts of brutal assault require a Strength check against a DC of 25 (nearly impossible).  Each successful attempt after the first usage increases the DC by three.  This DC is lowered as the character advances in level.  The character can spend expertise die to aid this roll.  Each die spent eliminates disadvantage or grants an additional roll.  For example, spending one expertise die allows the character to roll 2d20 and take the highest roll.

Level       DC           Maneuver
1             25           Glancing Blow
2             22           Cleave
4             22           Spring Attack
8             19           Great Fortitude
10           19           Whirlwind Attack

Veteran:

Second Wind: A veteran can call upon his reserve willpower and training to produce an adrenaline surge to keep him or her going in the face of danger.  Once per day, the veteran can induce a second wind as an action or part of an action.  The veteran rolls all of his or her expertise dice and gains that total in temporary hit points.  These hit points last for one minute per fighter level.  Any damaging effect erodes these temporary hit points before affecting the character’s standard hit points. 

The veteran can attempt to use second wind more than once per day.  Additional attempts at second wind require a Constitution check against a DC of 25 (nearly impossible).  Each successful attempt after the first usage increases the DC by three.  This DC is lowered as the character advances in level.  The character can spend expertise die to aid this roll.  Each die spent eliminates disadvantage or grants an additional roll.  For example, spending one expertise die allows the character to roll 2d20 and take the highest roll.

Level       DC           Maneuver
1             25           Opportunist
2             22           Danger Sense
4             22           Mighty Exertion
8             19           Great Fortitude
10           19           Whirlwind Attack

As a general note, this would give each fighting style a unique fighting power utilizing a different mechanic than that found in the Monk class.  It is loosely a daily resource; however, it is designed to give each fighter one free usage of his or her power.  Additional usages require an attribute check.  For each successful attempt, the DC is raised to give the class an artificial cap on the number of times the power can be used in a day.  Expertise die can be spent to augment success; however, this will reduce the effectiveness of the power.  Burning an expertise die to make the attempt possible, reduces the number of expertise die available to augment the power. 

As I stated before, this write-up hasn’t been mathematically balanced at this point.  I’m just using it as a suggestion of where to go with the fighter class.  To make this more attractive at lower levels, these powers should incorporate the attribute bonus to damage if the developers are really serious of removing them from the game.  Actually, the attribute bonus should still apply to damage on critical attacks for every character.

 

 

 

              

 

 

I was puttering around when I decided to recreate my favorite character using the DDN character creation guidelines.  I just wanted to see the differences between the two first level versions to get a better feeling of what my future primary character will be facing after the release of the game.

Cadwallon ap Bliedd
Male Elf (High) Fighter
Medium Humanoid
Armor Class 14 (Studded Leather Armor + 1 Dexterity)
Hit Points 11 (1d10+1)
Hit Dice: 1d10
Speed 30 ft.
Sense Low-light

Str 14 (+2) Dex 12 (+1) Con 12 (+1)
Int 16 (+3) Wis 10 (+0) Cha 11 (+0)

Alignment Neutral Good
Languages Common, Elven
Background Sage
Trait Free Spirit, Keen Senses, Trance, Elven Weapon Training, Researcher
Skills Listen, Spot, Knowledge (Arcana), Knowledge (Folklore), Knowledge (Nature), Knowledge (Warfare)

Specialty Arcane Magic Specialist

Feat Arcane Initiate

Class Traits: Expertise (1d4), fighting style (Custom)
Maneuvers deadly strike, parry

Actions
Melee Attack—Long sword +5 to hit (reach 5 ft.; one creature).
Hit: 1d10+2 slashing damage (with deadly strike: 1d10+2+1d4)

Magic Attack – Shocking Grasp +3 to hit (reach 5 ft.; one creature).
Hit: 1d8+4 lightning damage and the target cannot take reaction actions until its next turn.

Ranged Attack—Longbow +4 to hit (range 150/600).
Hit: 1d10+1 piercing damage (with deadly strike: 1d10+1+1d4 damage)

Spell list
Cantrips: Shocking Grasp, Light (once per day)
 
Equipment: Studded Leather Armor, Longsword, Dagger (2), Longbow, Backpack, Healer’s Kit, Mess Kit, Hempen Rope (50ft), Tinderbox, Torches (10), Rations (10 days), Waterskin, Arrow (40), Pouch, Caltrops, Robes, Inkpen, Ink, Paper (5 sheets), 1 gp, 0 sp, 98 cp.

Feedback Cadwallon is a recreation of my third edition Living Greyhawk character.  The original Cadwallon was ranger / wizard / fighter / eldritch knight / bladesinger with a large skill point pool.  He started as a Ranger with a majority of his levels in the wizard class.  Fighter and Eldritch Knight were stepping stones to obtain the concept sooner.  Ultimately, he was more of a wizard-oriented bladesinger.  He was a great utility character that could fill multiple roles in a pinch.  I wanted to see the relative “power” of the two characters at first level.  This character was built using a fighter in hopes of some multi-classing option in future iterations to take levels as a wizard. 

First, I miss the ranger class’s skill selection from third edition.  Cadwallon was a mixture of sage and spy.  This is hard to replicate with the fighter.  However, it is the best that I can do in this iteration of the playtest. 

Second, his ability scores seem weaker than the previous edition.  I managed to obtain a score of sixteen in intelligence, just like this character; however, I had more attributes at 14 than in this edition. 

Third, I like the racial features of the high elf.  The +1 to intelligence does a decent job at replicating the grey elf option in Greyhawk.  In addition, the cantrip is a nice addition and makes Cadwallon feel more like the third edition character at a lower level. 

Fourth, I like the existence of the Arcane Specialist Specialty; however, I think it is a poor name.  It doesn’t sound cool.  In addition, its granted spell is weaker than in the previous playtest.  This makes it a very unattractive feat; I would probably switch it out for something else if it remains the same. 

Fifth, I don’t like the Elven Weapon Training racial feature.  It would rather get the longsword as a finesse weapon as a racial feature.  The longbow weapon die bump is fine.  In addition, this feature seems more like a subrace feature than a racial feature.  The racial powers and sub-racial features really need to be rearranged even if it means retyping the same stuff. 

Sixth, the Sage background seems fine.  I like the additional skill; it gives the player more flexibility.  However, I’m more inclined to just pick four skills and a trait.  The backgrounds seem bland to me.

Overall, the playtest build feels weaker overall over the 3.0/3.5 character.  The attribute scores are just significantly lower than the 3.0/3.5 point buy system.  In addition, the maximum attainable score is 15 (before racial and class bumps) versus 18.  While I don’t really pursue the higher 18 score, I find it unfair that a rolled character can have a higher score.  The point buy is probably in an early iteration; so, I am not too worried about it at this point.  I think granting weapon finesse for elves is the only real choice for an elf to keep up with the dwarf as a fighter.  By keep up, I really mean providing the elf with a decent, effective build to offset the dwarven builds.
 

I recently participated in a thread on the DDN forums concerning the concept of Bounded Accuracy when a poster, Lesp, suggested using the Advantage/Disadvantage mechanic to simulate skill training.  That got me thinking about possible applications of the concept to fix the skill scaling problems in the current playtest. 

First, let me outline the general skill progression in the current playtest.  This table details the probabilities of success for a character with a full attribute bonus (+5).

DC07 - 95% at +0, 99% at +3, 99% at +4, 99% at +5, 99% at +6, 99% at +7 *
DC10 - 80% at +0, 95% at +3, 99% at +4, 99% at +5, 99% at +6, 99% at +7 *
DC13 - 65% at +0, 80% at +3, 85% at +4, 90% at +5, 95% at +6, 99% at +7 *
DC16 - 50% at +0, 65% at +3, 70% at +4, 75% at +5, 80% at +6, 85% at +7
DC19 - 35% at +0, 50% at +3, 55% at +4, 60% at +5, 65% at +6, 70% at +7
DC22 - 20% at +0, 35% at +3, 40% at +4, 45% at +5, 50% at +6, 55% at +7
DC25 - 05% at +0, 20% at +3, 25% at +4, 30% at +5, 35% at +6, 40% at +7  
* 99% is acutally 100%; I used 99% for formatting purposes 

Each DC represents the current DC categories in the current playtest.  I calculated the probability at unskilled (+0) and skilled (+3 through +7).  The main problem I have with this method is at DC 25.  An unskilled character gets a 5% chance at a nearly impossible task (assuming that he or she has +5 attribute).  That's not too bad; however, a first level character with skill training gets a 20% probability of success.  A fully trained character gets a 40% chance.  Those numbers seem excessively high to me. 

Using Lesp's initial idea, I propose using a series of skill dice.  An unskilled character gets one skill die.  A skilled character gets two skill dice, and characters can gain additional training that would add more skill dice.  I would cap this at four skill dice.  In addition, I would control the progression of skills.  A character between levels one and five would cap at two dice; levels six through ten would cap at three dice.  After level ten, skill dice would cap at four (however, adding a fifth skill dice is a possibility). 

Each skill dice would grant a character one roll.  Possessing two skill dice would grant a character 2d20 on a skill roll.  The character only uses the highest die roll.  Three skill dice would grant 3d20 (take the highest roll).  I sat down and calculated the probabilities of success against the various set DC categories.  These are the results.

DC 07 - 95% at 1 die, 99.75% at 2 dice, 99.99% at 3 dice, 99.99% at 4 dice.*
DC 10 - 80% at 1 die, 96.00% at 2 dice, 99.20% at 3 dice, 99.84% at 4 dice.
DC 13 - 65% at 1 die, 87.75% at 2 dice, 95.71% at 3 dice, 98.50% at 4 dice.
DC 16 - 50% at 1 die, 75.00% at 2 dice, 87.50% at 3 dice, 93.75% at 4 dice.
DC 19 - 35% at 1 die, 57.75% at 2 dice, 72.54% at 3 dice, 82.15% at 4 dice.
DC 22 - 20% at 1 die, 36.00% at 2 dice, 48.80% at 3 dice, 59.04% at 4 dice.
DC 25 - 05% at 1 die, 09.75% at 2 dice, 14.26% at 3 dice, 18.55% at 4 dice.
* 3 dice or higher actually brings the percentage up 100% with a precision of 2 decimal points.
   
Being skilled under the skill dice system actually gave larger boosts for all of the DC categories except for DC 25.  However, these boosts were generally comparable.  In addition, the dice system still allowed for skill failure; however, it does a good job of minimizing the chance of failure. 

In DC 25 category, the percentages for success fell dramatically when compared to the current system.  A skilled character only has a 9.75% chance of completing a nearly impossible task versus 20%.  This seems more reasonable to me.  A full trained character capped at 18.55% at four dice.  This is dramatically less than the 40% chance under the current system. 

Now, the skill dice system does present some issues.  It is harder (and possibly outside the math capability of the average player) to calculate exact amount of success.  However, I just made a table to describe it; I'm sure WotC can figure out how to put into a table format.  Another issue is that it inflates certain DC levels more than others.  I actually think this is a cool effect; however, some people might have a problem with this.  The final major issue that I see is that it caps the maximum attainable DC to the character's attribute bonus.  A character that has a +4 attribute can't complete a nearly impossible task; unless some other mechanic is added to the system.  This might be the strongest argument; however, it would make attributes more significant.

This is not a complete system.  The integration of the Advantage/Disadvantage mechanic still needs to be addressed by the developers.  There are a couple of ways of making it happen.  The first is to give an advantage or disadvantage to every skill dice.  This would ballon up the number of rolls at the table.  This would not be productive for quick gameplay.  Another method would eliminate skill dice when at disadvantage.  If the character only has one skill die, then disadvantage would apply normally.  Advantage would just add one skill die.  This would actually cause a wide swing in probability and could work for some tables.  The final option is have advantage or disadvantage add to the skill dice total.  Disadvantage would subtract one skill die; advantage would add one skill die. 

I would love for WotC to incorporate this system for testing.  I would like to see how it works out in a "live" envirnoment.

Parsing some more number, I decided to look at the rogue's skill mastery.  The basic premise of skill mastery seems to be to allow the rogue to dump stats and remain viable in skill checks related to those dumped stats.  I have problem with this premise from the get go.  First, a player that dumps stats should experience the consequences of dumping of those stats.  Mitigating the dump just eliminates consequences.  Second, it hampers the ability of other character to shine in fields despite being "designed" for it.

My main exception revolves around my tendency to play at least one wizard for every edition.  Usually, I build this wizard around the concept of being smart and extremely knowledgeable of arcane subjects.  My fear is that an Arcane Trickster build will outperform this concept without any possibility of being competitive.  Consequently, I parsed the numbers using a range of numbers to represent a range of scenarios. 

The set of numbers represent a two characters, one with the rogue abilities and the other with the wizard abilities.  In each set, the wizard's numbers represent the best possible combination at level 10 under the current playtest rules.  The rogue's numbers vary from set to set.  Each set represents a rogue with a different set of aplitude in the same skill.  The first set shows a rogue with no skill.  The second set displays number with some skill and aplitude, and each successive set adds more skill with the last set possessing equal skill numbers.  The SM field displays the average bonus that 3d10 expertise die will grant a rogue during a single round.

Here's the breakdown:

No Skill or Aplitude
	Skill Bonus	Attribute	SM	Total
Rogue	0	0	7.975	12.175
Wizard	7	5	0	22.5
Some Skill
	Skill Bonus	Attribute	SM	Total
Rogue	3	1	7.975	22.475
Wizard	7	5	0	22.5
Moderate Skill
	Skill Bonus	Attribute	SM	Total
Rogue	3	3	7.975	24.475
Wizard	7	5	0	22.5
High Skill
	Skill Bonus	Attribute	SM	Total
Rogue	5	4	7.975	27.475
Wizard	7	5	0	22.5
Maximum Skill
	Skill Bonus	Attribute	SM	Total
Rogue	7	5	7.975	30.475
Wizard	7	5	0	22.5

With no skill, the rogue can't match a fully skilled wizard at tenth level; pretty good from my standpoint.  However, rogue trained in a skill and possessing a +1 attribute bonus matches the wizard with a maximum (+7) skill level with a maximum attribute bonus.  This doesn't seem as fair to me.  Adding more skill points and/or attribute bonuses just make this problem worse.  The rogue regularly performs better than the wizard.  A fully optimized rogue can, on average, meet a DC 30 check.  That is eight points higher than a character with maximum skills.  That's huge disparity.

As a result, I don't like skill mastery.  Having to take a level (when multiclassing comes out) in rogue just be competive in a skill set normally associated with a different class is just...  WRONG!  On top of that, the rogue gets eight skills versus six for the Monk, five for the cleric and wizard and four for the fighter just creates even more imbalance in the game.  A wizard, or any other non-rogue class, can't compete with a rogue with a minimum amount of skill.

My recommendation is to limit skill mastery to the skills granted by the rogue's scheme.  If WotC doesn't, I can see this creating problems in adhoc groups, like those of a Living Campaign.  I can even see it causing problems with new groups; established groups would probably just houserule the imbalance once it comes to light.

I've been doing some number crunching in regards to damage output for the released DDN classes.  I concentrated on the level 10 bracket more than anything else.  This was partially due to the fact that DnD tended to breakdown at level ten in past editions.  Mostly, it was due to being lazy.  There are only so many calculations that I want perform at any given time.

I operated on the basic premise for each class. 

First, I don't look at the AC or "to hit" bonus.  I operate off of the assumption that each build is sufficiently built to gain the same hit percentage against the same opponent.  That means my tables are broken down by hit percentages.  I usually do a set with the following percentages: 65%, 50% and 35%. 

Second, each set of numbers operates off of a 10th level character.  This means each character gains a 6d6 damage boost on criticals and possesses 3d10 in expertise dice.

Third, I assume that each character has gained a +5 attribute bonus to damage. 

With these assumptions in place, this is the current breakdown:

 65%
 

Fighter	1d6	DS	24.8
	1d8	DS	26.2
	1d10	DS	27.6
	1d12	DS	29
	2d6	DS	29.6
Monk	1d6	FoB	22.65
Rogue	1d6	SA	18.1
	1d8	SA	18.8

    
50%

Fighter	1d6	DS	19.775
	1d8	DS	20.875
	1d10	DS	21.975
	1d12	DS	23.075
	2d6	DS	23.525
Monk	1d6	FoB	18.6
Rogue	1d6	SA	14.35
	1d8	SA	14.9

35%      

Fighter	1d6	DS	14.75
	1d8	DS	15.55
	1d10	DS	16.35
	1d12	DS	17.15
	2d6	DS	17.45
Monk	1d6	FoB	14.55
Rogue	1d6	SA	10.6
	1d8	SA	11

The fighter is far and away the best DPR in the game.  It can also be argued that it has the best defenses in the game.  This scenario creates an imbalance in the game in my opinion. 

Consequently, I went back and tweaked some number and added features to see the effect on the overall DPR for the Monk and Rogue. 

For the Monk, I added a feature which I call improved flurry of blows at sixth level.  Basically, it grants two flurry attacks for the first expertise die spent on flurry of blows.  Any additional die still granted just one extra attack.

For the Rogue, I did a large number of things; however, I settled on granting it two expertise die for each die spent on sneak attack at sixth level.  In other words, 1d10 spent would grant the rogue's sneak attack 2d10 extra damage.  This would become 6d10 versus 3d10 at level ten.

This is the breakdown with these changes:

65%        

Fighter	1d6	DS	24.8
	1d8	DS	26.2
	1d10	DS	27.6
	1d12	DS	29
	2d6	DS	29.6
Monk	1d6	FoB	27.5
Rogue	1d6	SA	29.5
	1d8	SA	30.2

50%

Fighter	1d6	DS	19.775
	1d8	DS	20.875
	1d10	DS	21.975
	1d12	DS	23.075
	2d6	DS	23.525
Monk	1d6	FoB	22.625
Rogue	1d6	SA	23.275
	1d8	SA	23.825

35%

Fighter	1d6	DS	14.75
	1d8	DS	15.55
	1d10	DS	16.35
	1d12	DS	17.15
	2d6	DS	17.45
Monk	1d6	FoB	17.75
Rogue	1d6	SA	17.05
	1d8	SA	17.45

Under this method, the rogue topped the charts.  However, it should be noted that the rogue requires conditions to top the chart.  Under the current situation, the rogue needs to have advantage or the creature is within reach of an ally.  I would prefer this to be just advantage.  The Monk performed between a more defensive style fighter (which I consider to be a 1d8 or 1d10 damage die) and the offensive fighter (which I consider the 2d6 damage die) for the most part.  However, it's DPR did exceed the fighter's DPR at 35% when situation was "dire". 

Overall, I prefer these changes to the current playtest setup.  It gives each class a more balanced approach to combat, well relative to each other.  It keeps a single class from being the only class in the combat portion of the game.